Tasiri & Shawarwari · Sashe na 4 daga 7

Pre-Suasion: Duk wanda ya saita ajanda ya riga ya yanke shawara

Argumentree Team11 min
Pre-Suasion: Duk wanda ya saita ajanda ya riga ya yanke shawara

Pre-Suasion: Duk wanda ya saita ajanda ya riga ya yanke shawara

Pre-suasion is Robert Cialdini's term, from his 2016 book of that name, for arranging what an audience attends to before a message arrives, on the argument that attention directed beforehand shapes what the message can do. Cialdini describes it in his own words as the practice of getting people sympathetic to your message before they experience it — causing people to have something at the top of their consciousness that makes them receptive to a message yet to come. Chapter two names the mechanism privileged moments: identifiable points in time when an individual is particularly receptive to a communicator's message. For a decision meeting the practical translation is that the agenda, the pre-read and the order in which options are presented are not neutral logistics; they determine which considerations are salient when the group starts to weigh a case. The supporting research must be read carefully. The frequently cited in-store wine experiment by North, Hargreaves and McKendrick, first published in Nature in 1997 and reported in full in the Journal of Applied Psychology in 1999, found French and German background music shifting purchases toward matching wines, but the entire result rests on 82 bottles sold, and it is routinely misattributed to Areni and Kim, whose 1993 conference paper is a different study about classical music and spend per bottle. The question-framing study often reported as Cialdini's own is Bolkan and Andersen's, published in Basic and Applied Social Psychology in 2009. More importantly, social priming has a serious replication record: the Open Science Collaboration found 36 per cent of 100 psychology studies replicated in 2015, Doyen and colleagues failed to replicate a landmark priming demonstration in 2012, Many Labs 2 replicated 15 of 28 findings with median effect sizes falling from 0.60 to 0.15, and Daniel Kahneman publicly revised his own confidence in behavioural priming in 2017. The honest position is neither that priming is debunked nor that it is settled: Sherman and Rivers argued in 2021 that social priming is an incoherent category, and a 2023 meta-analysis in Psychological Bulletin by Dai, Albarracin and colleagues reported a moderate overall priming effect of d equals 0.37 that survived publication-bias adjustment. What survives the caveats is the part that needs no priming literature at all: agenda order, framing and defaults demonstrably determine what a group discusses, and the structural defence is to fix the frame in advance, collect positions independently before discussion, and record the decision criteria before the options are seen.

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Tasiri & Shawarwari · Sashe na 4 daga 7

Yadda tasiri ke aiki a kan ƙungiya mai yanke shawara — ka'idojin Cialdini guda bakwai, gwaje-gwajen gargajiya da ke bayan su, da iyakar inda gamsarwa ta gaskiya ke zama matsi na ƙirƙira.

  1. 1.Cialdini's 7 Principles of Influence — and What They Do to a Group Decision
  2. 2.Asch, Milgram and the Meeting: What the Conformity Experiments Actually Found
  3. 3.Escalation of Commitment: Why Teams Keep Funding the Failing Project
  4. 4.Pre-Suasion: Whoever Sets the Agenda Has Already DecidedYou are here
  5. 5.Influence or Manufactured Pressure? The Line Cialdini Draws, and What It Costs to Cross
  6. 6.A Twenty-Dollar Lunch: Reciprocity in Vendor Selection — and Why Disclosure Doesn't Fix It
  7. 7.Not Invented Here: In-Group Bias in Idea Evaluation — and the Experiment That Complicates It

Mafi mahimmancin hukunci a taro ana yinsa kafin taron ya fara.

Wani ya zaɓi abin da zai kasance a cikin ajanda. Wani ya zaɓi tsarin. Wani ya rubuta abin da za a karanta kafin taron wanda ke bayyana matsalar, kuma ya zaɓi wane zaɓi zai bayyana a matsayin shawara da wane zai bayyana a matsayin zaɓuɓɓuka. A lokacin da mutane takwas suka zauna don yin nazari kan hukunci, wani babban ɓangare na sakamakon ya riga an tsara shi ta wani mutum wanda watakila ba ma a cikin ɗakin ba.

Robert Cialdini ya ba wannan suna. A cikin Pre-Suasion (2016) ya yi ikirarin cewa shawo kan mutane ba ya fara da saƙon; yana farawa da abin da masu sauraro ke mai da hankali akai lokacin da saƙon ya iso. Yayin da yake magana da PBS NewsHour lokacin da littafin ya bayyana, ya bayyana shi a cikin kalmomi masu sauƙi:

Aikin samun mutane su zama masu jituwa da saƙonka kafin su fuskanci shi… ikon sa mutane su kasance da wani abu a saman tunaninsu wanda ke sa su zama masu karɓa ga saƙonka da har yanzu ba a kawo ba.
— Robert Cialdini, PBS NewsHour (22 Satumba 2016)
Babban babi na biyu na littafin yana kiran waɗannan lokutan fifiko — wurare masu ganewa a cikin lokaci lokacin da wani ke da karɓuwa fiye da yadda aka saba ga saƙon mai isarwa. A cikin kamfani, lokacin fifiko ba wani abu ne mai ɓoyewa ba: shine karatun kafin.

Yanzu ɓangaren da takaitaccen bayanin kasuwanci ke barin waje

Za ku haɗu da bincike guda uku a kusan kowanne labari game da pre-suasion, kuma dukkaninsu suna da gargadi da ba a yawan tafi tare da su.

  • ✗Karatu akan giya da kiɗa. Canza kiɗan Faransanci da Jamusanci a cikin kasuwa ya jawo sayayya zuwa giya daga ƙasar da kiɗan ya dace da ita — gaskiya, an buga shi na farko a cikin Nature (1997) kuma a cikakke a cikin Journal of Applied Psychology (1999) ta North, Hargreaves da McKendrick. Amma dukkan tasirin yana kan 82 kwalabe da aka sayar a cikin makonni biyu. Wannan wani bincike ne na filin da ya dace a sani, ba doka ta halitta ba.
  • ✗Hakanan ana yawan ba da kuskure. Sakamakon kiɗa da giya ana yawan danganta shi da Areni da Kim. Wannan wani bincike ne daban — 1993, classical da Top Forty, kuma ya shafi yadda yawan kuɗin da masu saye suka kashe a kowace kwalba maimakon wace ƙasa suka zaɓa — kuma an buga shi a cikin takardun taro maimakon mujallar da aka duba ta abokan aiki.
  • ✗Karatun "shin kuna da sha'awar kasada?" ba na Cialdini ba ne. Ganin cewa tambayar wannan tambayar ta farko tana haɓaka karɓar samfurin kyauta yana belong ga Bolkan da Andersen (Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 2009). Cialdini ya ambace shi; labarin da aka yi masa suna ya canza shi a hankali zuwa gare shi.

Kuma shirin kansa ana kalubalanta — ana kalubalanta yadda ya kamata

Matsalar ta fi zurfi ita ce cewa tushen dakin gwaje-gwajen na pre-suasion shine shahararren shahararren zamantakewa, wanda ya fuskanci mafi wahalar shekaru goma a fannin ilimin halayyar dan adam. Aikin maimaitawa na Open Science Collaboration na 2015 ya gano cewa yayin da kashi 97 cikin 100 na binciken asali suka bayar da tasiri mai mahimmanci, kawai 36 cikin 100 na maimaitawar suka yi, tare da girman tasirin da aka ragu kusan rabin. Doyen da abokan aikinsa sun kasa maimaita shahararren misalin shahararren zamantakewa a 2012 kuma sun gano cewa tasirin ya bayyana ne kawai lokacin da masu gwaji suka yi tsammani. Many Labs 2, a 2018, sun maimaita 15 daga cikin 28 na abubuwan da aka gano a tsakanin mahalarta 15,305, tare da girman tasirin da ya ragu daga 0.60 zuwa 0.15.

Daniel Kahneman, wanda ya gabatar da aikin farawa da kwarin gwiwa a cikin Thinking, Fast and Slow, ya sake duba matsayinsa a bainar jama'a a 2017, yana rubutu cewa ya sanya yawan imani a cikin karatun da ba su da karfi kuma cewa tasirin ba za su iya zama masu yawa ko kuma masu karfi kamar yadda babin sa ya nuna ba.

Ga inda wani rubutu mai gaskiya ya kamata ya tsaya a gaban kammalawa mai gamsarwa. "An musguna wa priming" zai kasance ba daidai ba. Sherman da Rivers sun yi jayayya a cikin Psychological Inquiry (2021) cewa "social priming" ba ta taba zama wani rukuni mai ma'ana ba tun farko, kuma wani nazari na 2023 a cikin Psychological Bulletin daga Dai, Albarracín da abokan aiki — nazarin 351, girman tasiri 862 — ya bayar da rahoton tasirin priming mai matsakaici na d = 0.37 wanda ya wuce gyara don son zuciya na wallafa. Karatun da za a iya karewa: hanyar tana da gaske kuma tana da matsakaici; nuna labarai a cikin littattafan shahararru suna da rauni kuma girman tasirinsu yana da girma.

Me yasa muke gaya muku wannan

Wani rubutu da ya sayar da binciken giya ba tare da kwalaben 82 ba zai fi karfi da kuma zama gaskiya — wanda shine ainihin yanayin gazawar wannan rukuni gaba ɗaya. Idan ikirarin yana aiki ne kawai idan an cire sharuɗɗan, ba shine ikirarin da ya kamata ka gina taro a kai ba.

Sigogin taron ba su bukatar littattafan shiri.

Cire aikin labarin da ake takaddama akai kuma wani abu mai sauki ya rage: ikon tsara ajanda na gaskiya ne, ba tare da takaddama ba, kuma kusan ba a gudanar da shi. Babu wanda ya ki yarda cewa tattaunawa kan kasafin kudi kafin dabaru tana haifar da tattaunawa daban da akasin haka, ko cewa karatun da aka yi kafin yanke shawara yana bayyana "wanene mai sayarwa" yana hana "shin a sayi". Ba kwa buƙatar binciken farko don yarda cewa duk wanda ya rubuta tsarin ya canza sakamakon - kuna buƙatar kawai halartar tarurruka.

Wannan kuma shine inda pre-suasion ke haduwa da Anchoring Trap. Lambar farko da aka faɗa — kasafin kuɗi, lokaci, kimantawa — tana saita iyakar da kowa ke muhawara a ciki, kuma wanda ya karanta kafin ya zaɓi wannan lambar. Taron rubutaccen labarin Amazon, idan aka karanta wannan hanya, wata hanyar kariya ce ta pre-suasion: shafin shida yana tilasta tsara shi cikin takarda da dakin taron ke karantawa tare, maimakon barin shi ga wanda ya fara magana.

Hanyar: kula da tsarin, ba kawai tattaunawar ba

Hanyoyi hudu, babu wanda ke bukatar kowa ya zama dan adam kadan.

  • ✓Rubuta ka'idodin yanke shawara kafin zaɓuɓɓuka. Yarda da abin da zai sa amsar ta zama mai kyau — iyakar farashi, abubuwan da dole ne a samu, dawowa — yayin da zaɓuɓɓukan suke har yanzu a cikin tunani. Ka'idodin da aka rubuta bayan zaɓuɓɓukan da aka bayyana suna da ka'idodin da aka rubuta don dacewa da zaɓi.
  • ✓Juya wanda ke saita ajanda. Idan mutum guda ne ke tsara kowace shawara, wannan mutum yana yawan yanke shawara fiye da yadda tsarin ƙungiya ya nuna. Juya yana da kyauta kuma yana rarraba iko na gaske.
  • ✓Tarawa matsayin kafin a tattauna karatun farko. Rubutaccen shigarwa mai zaman kansa, wanda aka tattara kafin a kammala tsarin, shine mafi arha hanyar counter-pre-suasion da ake da ita — kuma shine wanda ke rage shaidar zamantakewa da iko.
  • ✓Saka firam a kan rikodin. Lokacin da rikodin shawara ya kiyaye asalin tambayar, mai duba a shekara mai zuwa na iya tambayar tambayar da ta fi muhimmanci: shin wannan shine abu mai kyau da za a yanke shawara a kai?

Waye ya rubuta tambayar?

Hankalin Cialdini, wanda aka cire daga gwaje-gwajen da ba su da ƙarfi, shine cewa kulawa wata hanya ce da ake rarrabawa kafin kowa ya fara tunani — kuma duk wanda ya rarraba ta yana da fa'ida da ba a iya janye ta gaba ɗaya daga kowanne hujja a taron.

Don haka, a lokacin da shawara ta yi kama da an riga an yanke ta, kada ku fara da tambayar wanda ya yi muhawara mafi kyau. Tambayi wanda ya rubuta tambayar — domin a yawancin taron, wannan ne mutumin da ya riga ya yanke shawara.

Hanyoyin & karin karatu

Duk wani tushen da aka ambata a cikin wannan rubutun, tare da hanyar haɗi inda hakan ya kasance. Inda aka kasa gano ikirarin daga tushen farko, rubutun yana bayyana hakan a cikin jikin sa maimakon a cikin ƙananan rubutu.

Tambayoyi da ake yawan yi

Menene pre-suasion?

Kalmar Robert Cialdini, daga littafinsa na 2016, don tsara abin da masu sauraro ke mai da hankali akai kafin saƙo ya iso. Huɗar sa shine cewa shawo kan mutane ba ya farawa da saƙon: yanayin tunanin da mai sauraro yake ciki yana tantance abin da saƙon zai iya yi. Ya bayyana shi a matsayin samun mutane su zama masu jituwa da saƙonka kafin su fuskanci shi, ta hanyar sanya wani abu a saman tunaninsu da farko.

Menene lokaci mai fifiko?

Kalmar da Cialdini ya yi amfani da ita a babi na biyu na Pre-Suasion don nuna lokuta masu ganewa a cikin lokaci lokacin da mutum ke da karɓuwa sosai ga saƙon mai sadarwa. A cikin sharuɗɗan ƙungiya, wannan lokaci na musamman ba ya zama mai ban mamaki: yana da karatun kafin taron, ajanda, da kuma tsarin da wani ya zaɓa kafin taron ya fara.

Shin binciken da ke bayan pre-suasion yana da inganci?

A wani bangare, kuma abubuwan da aka yi gargadi suna da mahimmanci. Hanyoyin zamantakewa — tushen dakin gwaje-gwaje na pre-suasion — suna da tarihin maimaitawa mai wahala: Open Science Collaboration ta gano cewa 36% na binciken 100 sun maimaita a 2015, kuma Many Labs 2 sun maimaita 15 daga cikin 28 na sakamakon tare da matsakaicin girman tasiri yana raguwa daga 0.60 zuwa 0.15. Amma ba a musguna masa ba: wani bincike na meta a cikin Psychological Bulletin na 2023 ya gano tasiri mai matsakaici (d = 0.37) wanda ya kasance mai karfi ga gyaran son bugawa. Yi la'akari da wannan tsarin a matsayin na gaske da matsakaici, kuma yi hankali da nuna misalai daga littattafan da suka shahara.

Shin binciken giya da kiɗa gaskiya ne?

Eh, amma ƙanana fiye da yadda aka yi masa suna. Aare, Hargreaves da McKendrick sun buga shi a Nature a 1997 kuma a cikakke a Journal of Applied Psychology a 1999: kiɗan bango na Faransanci ko Jamusanci ya canza sayayya zuwa giya mai dacewa. Duk sakamakon yana kan kwalabe 82 da aka sayar a cikin makonni biyu, don haka yana da nazari mai jan hankali fiye da tasiri mai ƙarfi. Hakanan ana yawan danganta shi da Areni da Kim, waɗanda suka gudanar da wani bincike daban game da kiɗan gargajiya da kashe kuɗi a kowace kwalba.

Yaya pre-suasion ke shafar taron yanke shawara?

Ta hanyar sarrafa ajanda, wanda ba ya bukatar littafin shahararrun ra'ayoyi don tabbatar da shi. Duk wanda ya zaɓi abin da za a tattauna na farko, yadda aka tsara matsalar a cikin karatun kafin taron, da wane zaɓi ne aka sanya alamar shawara ya riga ya motsa sakamakon. Lambar farko da aka ambata ma tana saita iyakar da kowa ke muhawara a ciki, wanda shine Kafaffen Kafa yana aiki kafin taron ya fara.

Me za mu iya yi game da shi?

Rubuta ka'idodin yanke shawara kafin zaɓuɓɓukan su bayyana, juyawa wanda ke saita ajanda, tattara matsayin da aka rubuta a cikin 'yanci kafin a tattauna karatun farko, kuma a kiyaye asalin tsarin a cikin rajistar yanke shawara don mai duba daga baya ya iya tambayar ko an yanke shawara kan tambayar da ta dace ko a'a. Babu wani daga cikin waɗannan da ke buƙatar mahalarta su zama mafi gaskiya; suna canza abin da tsarin ke bayyana.

Gyara firam din kafin firam din ya gyara ka

Fara da rubuta tambayar da ka'idojin a cikin itacen, tattara matsayi a cikin 'yanci, kuma bari rajistar ta nuna abin da aka yanke hukunci ainihi.

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