Yadda Ake Yanke Shawara Mafi Kyau: Dabaru, Kuskure, da Tsarin Da Ke Aiki Gaskiya

Ga wani lamba mai tayar da hankali daga binciken duniya na McKinsey kan yanke shawara: fiye da rabi na masu amsa sun bayyana cewa suna kashe fiye da 30% na lokacin aikinsu kan yanke shawara — kuma kawai 20% sun ce kungiyoyinsu suna da kwarewa a wannan fannin. Karanta waɗannan tare: mafi girman amfani da lokacin gudanarwa, wanda aka yi da ƙimar kwarewa da aka tantance da kai na ɗaya daga cikin biyar.

Yanzu ɓangaren da ke ƙarfafa gwiwa. Lokacin da aka yi wani abu mai mahimmanci haka da kyau ta hannun mutane masu ƙwarewa, dalilin ba ya taɓa zama mutane. Abin da ke faruwa shine rashin tsarin da aka tsara — yanke shawara da aka yi kamar yadda aka saba yi: a taron da aka tsara ta hanyar ɗabi'a, wanda aka kafa ta wanda ya yi magana na farko, wanda aka yanke shawara ta wanda ya yi magana da ƙarfi, kuma an manta da shi kafin lokacin da sakamakon su ya iso.

Wannan jagorar ita ce tsarin. Mako guda biyar, a jere, kowanne yana da zurfin bincike a wannan shafin — saboda aikin wannan rubutun shine ba ku cikakken taswira, ba don sake yaki da kowanne yaki a ciki. Gudanar da babban shawarar ku ta gaba ta cikin mako biyar kuma za ku ji bambanci kafin sakamakon ya bayyana.

Tushen: Ingantaccen Tsari Ya Fi Mutane Masu Hankali Kyau

Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow ya ba da tushe ga kalmomin sa: Tsarin 1 — mai sauri, mai hankali, mai daidaita tsarin — yana yawan yanke shawara mafi yawa daga cikinmu, cikin kwarewa da rashin gani, kuma yana dauke da son zuciya na tsarin; Tsarin 2 — mai jinkiri, mai wahala, mai nazari — yana duba Tsarin 1 ne kawai idan wani abu ya tilasta masa. Idan ba a tsara ba, yanke shawarar rukuni yana gudana akan Tsarin 1 tare da yanayin zamantakewa: tsayawa kan zaɓin farko, tabbatarwa ga wanda aka fi so a farko, girmamawa ga manya.

Ba za ka iya cire son zuciya daga kwakwalwa ta hanyar son yin hakan ba. Abin da za ka iya yi shine tsara tsarin ta yadda Tsarin 2 zai tilasta shiga cikin juyin a inda ya dace — wanda shine abin da kowanne daga cikin motsi biyar ke yi a mataki daban-daban na yanke shawara. Babu wanda ke bukatar kowa ya zama mai hikima; dukansu suna canza abin da dakin ke yi ta hanyar tsoho.

Mataki 1: Tsara bisa ga Dawo da Juyawa

Mafi girman motsi yana daukar sekondi talatin. A cikin wasikar masu hannun jari ta 2015, Jeff Bezos ya bambanta Hukuncin Nau'in 1 — masu tasiri, marasa juyawa ko kusan haka, "kofa guda" — daga Hukuncin Nau'in 2 — masu canzawa, masu juyawa, "kofuna biyu." Kwatancen sa: yayin da kungiyoyi ke girma, suna gudanar da tsarin nau'in 1 mai nauyi akan komai, suna sayen jinkiri da guje wa hadari ba tare da samun kariya ba a madadin. Wasikar shekara mai zuwa ta kara da ka'idar sauri don nau'in da za a iya juyawa: mafi yawan hukunci ya kamata a yanke tare da kusan 70% na bayanan da kake son ka samu — jiran 90% yawanci yana nufin zama jinkirin, kuma yin kuskure akan Nau'in 2 yana da arha saboda zaka iya gyara hanya.

Don haka tambaya ta farko game da kowanne hukunci ba "me ya kamata mu zaɓa?" ba amma "wannan nau'in menene?" Kofar hanyoyi biyu ana ba da ita, ana yanke shawara cikin sauri tare da bayanai 70%, kuma ana duba idan ba daidai ba. Kofar hanyoyi guda tana samun duk sauran motsi hudu. Mafi yawan ƙungiyoyi suna gano cewa sun kasance suna yin akasin haka: suna jin zafi game da zaɓin kayan aikin da za a iya juyawa yayin da suke yarda da alƙawura marasa juyawa. Muna bayyana cikakken tsarin yanke shawara na Bezos — gami da rashin jituwa da yarda — a cikin sakan nasa. (Don cikakken tsarin yanayi akan wannan — lokacin da za a yanke shawara kaɗai, tuntuɓi, ko ba wa ƙungiya shawara — duba samfurin yanke shawara na Vroom-Yetton.)

Mataki na 2: Tsara Kafin Zabi

Yawancin mummunan shawara suna cikin hatsari tun daga tambayar. Ka'idar tsara — wacce Cassie Kozyrkov ta koya wa dubban Googlers — ita ce rubuta, kafin kowanne bincike: ainihin shawarar da ake fuskanta, aikin default idan ba a yanke shawara ba, da wane shaidar zai canza ra'ayinka. Idan babu wani bincike mai ma'ana da zai canza aikin, ba ka yanke shawara ba; kana kawai yin ado da wani hukunci da aka riga aka yanke.

Rabin rabin na biyu shine ka'idoji kafin 'yan takara. Yarda da abubuwa uku zuwa biyar da zasu sa zaɓi ya yi nasara kafin a duba zaɓuɓɓuka — saboda da zarar 'yan takara sun kasance a kan tebur, kowanne ka'ida da aka gabatar daga baya ana zargin yana da alaƙa da wanda aka fi so. Wannan ɗabi'a guda ɗaya shine mafi ƙarfi sanannen magani ga tsayawar yanke shawara: binciken kan cunkoson zaɓi yana nuna cewa yana faruwa daidai lokacin da abubuwan da aka fi so ba su bayyana ba kuma zaɓuɓɓuka suna da wahala — duka biyun da rabin ke gyarawa a gaba.

Mataki na 3: Tsara Tattaunawar

Tattaunawa mara tsari ba ta zama akwati mai zaman kansa ba — tana da ilimin lissafi. Zabi na farko yana da tushe; ra'ayin da aka fi biya yana jan hankali; masu shakku suna yin tsare-tsare; shiru yana karantawa a matsayin yarda. Hanyoyin magance tunani na rukuni suna nan saboda karfafa gwiwa ("yi magana!") ba ta tsira daga hulɗa da waɗannan karfafa; tsari yana tsira: shugaba yana bayyana ra'ayinsa na ƙarshe, akasin ra'ayi ana tattara shi a rubuce ko a cikin sirri, kuma wani yana da 'yancin kai don kai wa shirin hari.

Tsarin ginin mafi ƙarfi shine hujja mai bayyana: kowanne zaɓi yana ɗauke da hujjojin amfaninsa da rashin amfaninsa, wanda aka bayyana a matsayin ikirari tare da dalilai, an auna bisa ga ingancinsu maimakon marubutansu. Wannan shine inda yanke shawara tare ke samun ingancin bincikenta — ƙungiyoyi masu tsari suna cin nasara akan duka mutane da ƙungiyoyi marasa tsari — kuma shine asalin abin da wannan shafin ke son faɗi: ingancin shawara shine ingancin hujjojin da suka tsira daga gare ta. Hakanan, ba tare da la'akari ba, yadda kuke samun amincewar masu ruwa da tsaki: mutane suna ɗaukar nauyin shawarar da suke iya ganin dalilanta — kuma sun taimaka wajen gina ta.

Mataki na 4: Yanke shawara ta hanyar Ka'ida

Tattaunawa dole ta ƙare, kuma yadda za ta ƙare ya kamata a yanke shawara kafin ta fara. Matsayin nauyi mai sauƙi shine Gokul Rajaram's SPADE (wanda aka haɓaka a Square; rubutun da aka yarda da shi yana kan First Round Review): Tsarawa — menene/yaushe/me yasa na shawarar; Mutane — wanene ke tuntuba, wanene ke amincewa, kuma mai mahimmanci ɗaya mai alhakin yanke shawara; Zaɓuɓɓuka — ainihin zaɓuɓɓukan tare da musayar su; Yanke shawara — kira, wanda aka yi a fili; Bayani — dalilin da aka isar ga kowa da kowa da abin ya shafa. Tsarin dangin sa (RAPID, DACI) suna bayyana wannan mahimmin batu: rashin tabbas game da wanene ke yanke shawara da kuma wane ka'ida shine inda tattaunawa ke mutuwa. Zaɓi ka'ida a hankali, ma — amincewa, jituwa ko mai yanke shawara guda ɗaya kowanne ya dace da ƙayyadaddun shawara, zaɓi muna kwatanta a zurfi.

Kuma kafin a yi hukuncin kofa guda: gudanar da pre-mortem na Gary Klein. Rukunin yana daukar cewa hukuncin ya gaza kuma kowanne yana rubuta dalilin hakan. Minti goma sha biyar, kuma shakku da ladabi ke boyewa suna bayyana a matsayin ayyuka maimakon confess — matakin kama kuskure mafi arha da aka taɓa ƙirƙira, wanda shine dalilin da ya sa kuma yake kafa kayan aikin tunani na rukuni.

Mataki na 5: Rubuta shi, sannan ka duba shi

Hanyoyin hudu da ke sama suna samar da kyakkyawar shawara. Na biyar yana sanya shawarar hadaddiya: rajistar rabin shafi — tambaya, zaɓuɓɓuka, hujjoji, shawara, dalili, mai, ranar duba — wanda aka rubuta lokacin da shawarar ta sauka, a wuri guda da za a iya bincika. Cikakken aikin, tare da samfurin da aka haɗa, yana cikin yadda ake rubuta shawara, tare da abokan iyakokinsa guda biyu akan mintuna da rajistar shawara da abubuwan aiki da shawara.

Ranar duba ita ce injin motsi: lokacin da ta iso, kungiyar tana kwatanta sakamakon da dalilin da aka rubuta kuma tana koyo ko tsarin — ba sa'a ba — ya kasance mai kyau. Wannan zagaye, wanda aka gudanar a cikin yawan yanke shawara, shine asalin aikace-aikacen ilimin yanke shawara: yanke shawara a matsayin kadarorin ƙungiya da ke inganta tsarin da ke samar da su. Wani bayanin tsara daga littafin dabarun tsara kungiyar: duk abin da sauran ajandar ku ke yi, yanke shawara mai tasiri yana zuwa na farko, ba a cikin mintuna biyar na ƙarshe na taron da ya wuce ba.

Tsarin Aiki Na Jinkiri — Hukunci da Sauri Sun Yi Nasara

Mafi karfin adawa yana fitowa daga mafi kyawun masu aikin: tsarin yanke shawara na iya zama wasan yanke shawara — takardun SPADE don umarnin abinci, pre-mortems don kiran da za a iya juyawa, tsari a matsayin madadin jarumta. Sauri na gaske makamin gasa ne; wasikun Bezos suna zama hujja mai tsawo cewa manyan kungiyoyi suna mutuwa daga nauyin yanke shawara, ba daga gaggawa ba. Kuma hukuncin da aka saba yana takaita matakai guda biyar zuwa sha'awa — kwarewar masani shine gane tsarin, ba rashin hankali ba.

Amsar ita ce cewa motsi guda biyar, idan aka karanta daidai, suna da tsarin sauri. Motsi na 1 yana nan don hanzarta yawan yanke shawara — Kiran Nau'in 2 ya kamata ya sami ƙarancin tsari fiye da yadda suke a yau, wanda aka yanke a kan kashi 70% na bayanai daga wanda ya mallake su. Tsarin yana hana nazarin mako guda na tambaya mara kyau. Masu yanke shawara da dokoki masu bayyana suna kawo karshen tsarin jinkiri mafi tsanani a rayuwar kamfani: shawarar da babu wanda aka ba da iko don yanke. Babban injin — tattaunawa mai tsari, pre-mortem, cikakkun bayanai — an tanadar su don ƙofofi guda ɗaya, inda "jinkiri yana zama laushi kuma laushi yana zama sauri" ba wani magana ce ta banza ba amma lissafi: sake shari'ar wani kira mara juyawa yana kashe fiye da kowanne tsarin da aka taɓa yi.

Kuma rangwamen: idan ƙungiyarku ta yi amfani da dukkan motsi guda biyar akan komai, kun rasa Motsi na 1, wanda shine ma'anar. Tsarin da ya dace da farashin juyawa — wannan shine dukkan falsafar a cikin kalmomi biyar.

Yadda Argumentree ke Gudanar da Mako Biyar

Hanyoyi guda biyar suna bayyana wani tsari; Argumentree shine wannan tsari a matsayin software. Tsarin yana bayyana - tambaya tare da mahallinta da ka'idojinta. Tattaunawar tana da tsari ta hanyar gini - zaɓuɓɓuka tare da hujjoji masu kyau da marasa kyau a cikin itacen da aka kimanta, rashin jituwa ana gayyata a matsayin reshe maimakon aikin jarumta. Shawarar tana sauka a ƙarƙashin kowanne doka da ƙungiyar ta zaɓa, tare da dalilin da aka bayyana.

Kuma Motsi na 5 kyauta ne: tunani shine rikodin — tambaya, zaɓuɓɓuka, hujjoji, dalili, mai shi da ranar duba an adana su ba tare da matakin rubutu ba. Tsarin motsi guda biyar yana daina zama wani ilimi da wani dole ne ya tuna da shi kuma yana zama tsarin yadda ƙungiyar ke aiki tuni.

Daya daga cikin Biyar Zabi ne

Lambar McKinsey tana da kyau a dawo da ita: kungiyoyi suna ciyar da kashi na uku na lokacinsu suna yanke shawara kuma suna kimanta kansu a matsayin masu kyau a wannan fanni sau daya cikin biyar. Babu komai a cikin wannan tazara da ke bukatar mutane mafi kyau. Kowane bangare na wannan yana amsa ga tsarin da aka tsara — rarrabawa, tsara, gina, tsarin aiki, tunani — wanda aka shigar da motsi daya a lokaci, farawa daga na talatin da biyu.

Don haka, zaɓi shawarar da ke yawo a cikin kalandarka a halin yanzu, ka kuma gudanar da ita ta hanyar guda biyar. Rubuta ta. Tsara ta. Yi muhawara a fili. Yanke shawara da suna da ka'ida. Rubuta ta tare da kwanan wata. Kungiyarka ta riga ta cika da mutane masu basira — ba su tsarin yanke shawara da wani ya tsara.