12 Kuskuren Tunani da ke kashe Tsari

TL;DR

Binciken mafi girma na ainihin shawarwarin dabaru ya gano cewa tsari ya fi nazari karfi shida — kuma kawai kashi 28% na shugabannin 2,207 sun kira shawarwarin kamfanoninsu gaba ɗaya masu kyau. Kuskure ne dalilin hakan. Amma shahararrun lokuta yawanci ana ba su labari ba daidai: abin da ya kashe Nokia, bisa ga binciken ciki na karshe, ba rashin hankali ko ma mummunan nazari ba ne. Abin da ya faru shine tsoro — kuma tsoro matsalar tsarin ne da za ka iya tsara akansa.

Hanyoyi guda goma sha biyu suna faruwa a cikin aikin dabaru — kowanne yana da kalma ta musamman da zaka iya koya ka ji a cikin dakin.
Sanin ba ya gyara su. Sanin game da ra'ayin tabbatarwa ba ya kare ka daga gare shi; shaidar na goyon bayan canza tsarin, ba mutane ba.
Aikin premortem yana aiki — amma ba saboda dalilin da aka saba ambata ba: "kwarai da gaske 30% ingantaccen gano dalilan gazawa" da aka maimaita yana kuskure wajen fassara Mitchell, Russo & Pennington (1989), wadanda suka gano cewa hangen nesa na lokaci yana da karancin tasiri kuma ba su taɓa auna ingancin dalili ba. Yi amfani da shi don izinin kin yarda da yake haifarwa (Klein, HBR 2007), ba don wani kididdiga da aka aro ba.
Tsallake mai kare ra'ayin shaidan da aka ba da shi. Binciken Nemeth ya gano cewa yin jayayya a cikin rawar kwaikwayo yana haifar da karfafa; jayayya ta gaskiya ita ce ke inganta tunani — don haka a kiyaye ta.
Tsara hujjoji, ba kammala ba. Rikodin hujjoji da aka rubuta, wanda aka kimanta shine kariyar cibiyar da ta dade — da kuma tunanin da za a iya bincika wanda ke kama da juna.

Lokacin da masu binciken gudanarwa guda biyu suka shiga cikin Nokia don bincika rushewar dabarun da ta fi shahara a zamanin wayoyin salula, labarin da kowa ya yi tsammani — shugabannin da suka gamsu wadanda ba su ga iPhone yana zuwa ba — ya rushe. Binciken Timo Vuori da Quy Huy, wanda aka buga a cikin Administrative Science Quarterly a 2016, ya sake gina shekarun 2005–2010 daga ciki kuma ya gano wani abu mai wahala: mutanen Nokia sun ga barazanar. Abin da ya karye shine isarwa. Manyan manajoji, suna tsoron masu fafatawa daga waje da masu hannun jari, sun matsa wa ma'aikata a ƙasa ba tare da amincewa da yadda abubuwa suka yi muni ba. Manajoji na tsakiya, suna tsoron manyan su da abokan aikinsu, sun tace mummunan labarai kuma sun yi alkawarin abubuwa da yawa akan abin da software zai iya yi. Jagoranci ya ƙare yana tuki bisa bayanan da ƙungiyarsu kanta ta mallaka, saboda tsoron da aka raba, a hankali ya karkatar.

Wannan shine yadda gazawar tunani mai ra'ayi ke bayyana a cikin babban tsari. Ba wani bulala bane da wani mai hikima zai warware — wani tsari na halayen dan Adam na yau da kullum (fitar da tsoro, fata mai motsa jiki, matsin lamba daga hukumomi) yana taruwa a cikin tsarin gudanarwa har sai an lalata shigar da shawara kanta.

Yanzu tambayar don aikin dabarunku: nawa daga cikin abin da ya kai ga jagorancinku an tace shi ta wannan hanya — kuma za ku iya ganowa? Wannan rubutun yana rufe son zuciya guda goma sha biyu da ke faruwa a cikin dabaru, shaidar dalilin da ya sa sanin kai kadai ba zai ceci ku ba, da gyare-gyare guda uku na tsari da ke da ingantaccen bincike a bayansu — wanda daga cikinsu yana sabawa da shawarar da tabbas kun riga kun aiwatar.

Tsari ya fi muhimmanci fiye da bincike —
ta hanyar wani abu guda shida.

— Dan Lovallo & Olivier Sibony, Hujjar dabarun halayya, McKinsey Quarterly (2010)

Matsayin Matsalar, An Auna

Shaidar mafi kyau na shaidar manyan ma'auni ya fito ne daga binciken dabarun halayen Dan Lovallo da Olivier Sibony a cikin McKinsey Quarterly (2010). A cikin binciken su na shugabannin kamfanoni 2,207, kawai 28% sun ce ingancin yanke shawarar dabaru a cikin kamfanoninsu yana da kyau; 60% sun yi tunanin cewa mummunan yanke shawara yana faruwa kamar yadda kyawawan yanke shawara ke faruwa. Kuma a cikin binciken su na 1,048 manyan yanke shawara na kasuwanci — suna kimanta duka nazarin da ke bayan kowanne yanke shawara da tsarin yanke shawara — sakamakon da ya gina fanni: tsarin ya fi muhimmanci fiye da nazari, ta hanyar hudu, wajen bayyana wane yanke shawara ya yi kyau.

Karanta wannan da kyau, saboda yana gano matsalar son zuciya daidai. Kyakkyawan bincike yana nan a ko'ina; yana kasa saboda tsarin da ke cinye shi — wanda ake jin sa, menene farashin sabani, wane tunani ne ba a duba ba — yana ba son zuciya damar yin aiki. Tsarin da ba shi da son zuciya zai gano mummunan bincike, Lovallo da Sibony sun lura, amma kyakkyawan bincike ba shi da amfani idan tsarin ba ya ba shi damar jin ra'ayi mai kyau. An yi nasara kan son zuciya a matakin takardar lissafi. An yi nasara, ko ba a yi ba, a matakin taro.

Twelve Biases da ke bayyana a cikin Aikin Tsari

Wannan ba su ne abubuwan bincike na ilimi ba — kowanne yana da kalma ta musamman, sautin da yake yi a taro. Misalan suna wakiltar shahararrun lokuta; dauke su a matsayin hotuna na tsarin, ba tarihin cikakke ba.

Tabbatar da ra'ayi

“Na san wannan zai yi aiki.”

Shaidar da ke goyon bayan dabarar ana tura ta; shaidar da ke akasin ta ana bayyana ta.

Kuskuren farashi da aka riga aka kashe

“Mun tafi nesa sosai don mu tsaya yanzu.”

Kodak ta kirkiro kyamarar dijital a shekarar 1975, sannan ta shafe shekaru tana kare fim daga gare ta.

Tura ƙasa

“Kimarmu ta farko ita ce miliyan 2.”

Lambar farko da aka faɗa a cikin ɗakin tana zama tushen kowane ɗaya daga baya.

Hanyoyin samuwa

“Na karanta game da wani sabon kamfani da ke yin wannan.”

Hadarin yana samun sabuwar farashi daga abin da ya yi fice a wannan makon, ba daga rates na asali ba.

Kyakkyawan tunani

“Zamu iya kai wannan adadin.”

WeWork ta kawo kimar kudi ta $47B a cikin takardar neman IPO da ta kare cikin makonni.

Tunani na rukuni

“Dukkanin mutane sun yarda — mu tafi.”

Tattaunawar kaddamar da Challenger: damuwar O-ring da aka sani, da dakin da ya daina jin su.

Son ci gaban da aka saba

“Haka muka dinga yi koyaushe.”

Samfurin Blockbuster ya wuce kasuwancinsa da shekaru a cikin tsarinsa na kansa.

Bambancin iko

“Shugaban kamfanin ya yanke shawarar cewa wannan shine hanyar.”

Theranos ta tara kwamitin girmamawa wanda matsayin sa ya maye gurbin binciken fasaha.

Tsarin kuskure

“Wata uku, mafi yawa.”

Cikin hasashen yana bin mafi kyawun yanayi; wajen tushe rates yana bin gaskiya.

Kuskuren bayar da hujja

“Nasarar mu ta kasance kwarewa; nasarar su ta kasance sa'a.”

Tsarin da aka kwafi daga masu tsira, tare da kabarin dabaru iri ɗaya da ba a bincika ba.

Tasirin juyin mulki

“Kowa a cikin masana'antar na zuba jari a wannan.”

Kowane hanzarin kamfani na hawan hype, a hankali ya ragu bayan shekaru biyu.

Tasirin tsari

“Rage farashi da kashi 10% idan aka kwatanta da sakin kashi 10%.”

Daidaitaccen lissafi, akasin yanayin dakin — kalmomin sun yanke shawara kafin taron ya fara.

Tasirin tsarin yana da bukatar karin lokaci guda saboda yana yanke shawarar tarurruka kafin su fara: rage farashi da kashi 10% yana haifar da kariya daga asara; saki kashi 10% don sake zuba jari yana haifar da bincike mai ma'ana. Lissafi iri daya, dakin akasin. Idan zaɓin kalmomi na iya yin hakan, hujjar rubuta yanke shawara a matsayin hujjoji masu tsari — inda ikirari ya rabu da kunshin sa — tana bayyana kanta.

Bayan goma sha biyu: uku daga cikin son zuciya da ke tsara muhawara kanta.

Twelve da ke sama suna canza abin da aka yanke shawara. Iyali na biyu yana canza yadda tattaunawar ke gudana, kuma memba na farko yana bayyana abubuwa da yawa na rashin tabbas mai kwarin gwiwa: ruwan hoto na zurfin bayani. Rozenblit da Keil (2002) sun nuna cewa mutane suna kimanta fahimtarsu game da yadda abubuwa ke aiki — zip, tolit, manufofi — fiye da yadda zasu iya nuna; kimar ta rushe a lokacin da aka tambaye su su rubuta bayani a fili. Wannan hujja ce don rubuta hujjoji a ƙasa: ikirarin da ke rayuwa kawai a matsayin gaisuwa a taro ba ya taɓa fuskantar gwajin da zai rushe shi.

Na biyu shine naive realism — imani, wanda Ross da Ward suka bayyana, cewa mutum yana ganin duniya kamar yadda take, don haka duk wanda ya ki yarda dole ne ya kasance ba shi da masaniya, rashin hankali ko kuma yana da son kai. Wannan son kai ne ke sa sauran goma sha ɗaya su ji kamar matsalolin wasu mutane, kuma yana ƙarfafa matsayin a cikin tattaunawar da ke buƙatar su zama laushi. Steelmanning — sake bayyana hujjar ɓangaren ɗaya da cikakken ƙarfi kafin amsa ta — shine hanyar da aka saba, kuma ka'ida ce mai kyau da ya kamata a shigar.

Na uku shine son zuciya mara kyau: bayani mara kyau yana da nauyi fiye da mai kyau — “mara kyau yana da karfi fiye da mai kyau,” kamar yadda Baumeister da abokan aikinsa suka sanya suna a cikin binciken tarihi na 2001. A cikin tattaunawar yanke shawara yana nufin cewa haɗarin da aka bayyana na iya watsi da fa'idodin da aka rarraba duk da lissafi. Amsar tsarin ba ita ce fata ba; ita ce nauyin a fili — rassan goyon baya da na akasin suna auna juna, don haka rashin daidaito a cikin nauyin jin daɗi yana buƙatar kare kansa a matsayin hujja maimakon aiki a matsayin yanayi. Nau'ikan da aka yi niyya na duk uku — tabbataccen aiki, rashin fahimta da aka yi niyya, firgici da aka yi niyya — suna cikin wata dangi daban gaba ɗaya: tattaunawa mai zamba.

Shin ba za mu iya horar da mutane su zama da ƙananan son zuciya ba?

Gyaran da ya dace — koyar da kowa jerin son zuciya — shine wanda ke da mafi rauni a cikin tarihin sa. Son zuciya na aiki a ƙasa da lura da kai: sanin cewa akwai son zuciya na tabbatarwa ba ya sanar da kai yayin da yake zaɓar shaidarka, kuma Kahneman kansa ya kasance da ra'ayi mai kyau game da yadda binciken sa na shekaru ya inganta tunaninsa. Sanin yana da mahimmanci; ba kariya ba ne.

Tsarin kariya da ke aiki shine na muhalli. A cikin bayanan Lovallo da Sibony, kamfanonin da suka yanke shawara mai kyau ba su kasance da ma'aikata masu gyara ra'ayi ba — sun gudanar da hanyoyi da suka bayyana kuma suka gyara shigar da ra'ayi: tattaunawa ta gaskiya, iyakokin rashin tabbas da aka bayyana, ka'idoji da aka kafa a gaba, rashin jituwa da aka amince da ita. Ba ka gyara wanda ke yanke shawara ba. Ka gyara dakin da ake yanke shawara a ciki — wannan shine sakamakon da Herbert Simon ya kai ga game da iyakacin hankali rabin karni da ya wuce.

Hanyoyi Uku na Gyara Tushen da ke da Shaida a Baya Su

1. Yi gudanar da premortems — adadin yana da gaskiya

Hanyar Gary Klein (Yinayin Kammala Aikin Premortem, HBR, Satumba 2007): gaya wa ƙungiyar cewa shirin ya riga ya gaza sosai, sannan a ba kowane mutum ya rubuta dalilan da suka sa kafin a fara tattaunawa. Kididdigar da aka saba ambata tare da ita ba ta wuce bincike ba: ikirarin cewa hangen nesa na gaba yana ƙara ingantaccen tantance dalilai da kusan 30% yana kuskure wajen fassara Mitchell, Russo da Pennington (1989), wanda takaitaccen bayani na su ya nuna cewa hangen nesa na lokaci ya nuna ƙarancin tasiri yayin da rashin tabbas na sakamako ya shafi nau'in bayanan — kuma wanda ba a taɓa tantance ko dalilan da aka samar sun dace ba. Ci gaba da amfani da hanyar kuma a manta da lambar. Gaskiyar darajarta ita ce ta zamantakewa: tana canza rashin jituwa daga aikin jarumta zuwa aikin da aka ba da, kuma matakin rubutu mai zaman kansa yana kiyaye jujjuyawar da shaidar zamantakewa daga farkon wucewa.

2. Kare sahihan sabani — kada ku sanya mai kare shaidan

Ga gyaran da aka yi ga littafin wasa na al'ada. Binciken Charlan Nemeth (Jaridar Turai ta Ilimin Zamani, 2001) ya kwatanta masu kare ra'ayi da aka sanya da masu adawa na gaske — kuma wasan ya sha kashi. Ayyukan da aka sanya suna haifar da karfafa tunani: kungiyoyi suna samar da karin dalilai cewa suna da gaskiya tun daga farko. Adawa ta gaske — wanda ke riƙe da ra'ayin ƙananan, yana faɗi haka — ta haifar da tunani mai faɗi da ƙarin hanyoyin magance matsaloli. Sakamakon aikace-aikace: aikinka ba shine nada wanda ke adawa ba, amma shine nemo wanda ke adawa da gaske da kuma sanya adawa ta zama mai sauƙi — wanda shine ainihin gazawar da Vuori da Huy suka rubuta a Nokia, inda adawa ta kasance a matsayin haɗarin aiki.

3. Yi taswirar hujjoji, ba kammala ba

Tsaron da ya dace yana da tarihin. Lokacin da aka kama hukunci a matsayin tsari — ikirari, hujjojin goyon baya da na kai hari, shaidu, kimantawa — akalla uku daga cikin son zuciya suna rasa wurin zama a lokaci guda: son zuciya na tabbatarwa, saboda dole ne a rubuta hujjojin da suka sabawa; son zuciya na iko, saboda itacen yana nuna tunani, ba matsayi ba; da kuma tsarin maimaitawa na ƙungiya, saboda ajiyar da za a iya bincika yana bayyana su (muna jingina kan maganganun masu sayarwa na farko; koyaushe muna ƙimar lokacin haɗawa da ƙasa). Rubuta hukunci yana daina zama bin doka kuma yana zama tsarin garkuwa na ƙungiya.

Babu wanda a Nokia ya kasance wawa.
Kusan kowa a Nokia yana jin tsoro.

Binciken Vuori & Huy (2016), an taƙaita

Nokia, Sake Gudanarwa Tare da Tsari Daban

Sake duba binciken Vuori da Huy akan waɗannan gyare-gyaren guda uku. Bayanin da Nokia ke bukata yana cikin Nokia — manajoji na tsakiya da injiniyoyi sun san cewa gibin software yana da gaske. Premortem zai ba da wannan ilimin hanyar da aka amince da ita, mai zaman kanta: shekara ta 2010 kuma mun rasa yakin wayar salula; rubuta dalilin. Kare ra'ayi na gaskiya zai canza farashin faɗin gaskiya sama. Kuma taswirar muhawara zata raba ikirarin — tsarin mu ba zai iya rufe gibin a lokaci ba — daga aikin duk wanda ya kawo shi.

Babu wani abu daga cikin wannan da ke buƙatar hangen nesa ko ingantattun masu nazari. Yana buƙatar yanayin yanke shawara inda tsoro ba ya saita abincin bayanai. Wannan shine ainihin darasin gazawar dabaru mafi yawan ambato a wannan zamani — kuma yana da zaɓin tsari da kowane ƙungiya ke da shi, wannan kwata, ciki har da waɗanda ra'ayinsu ke jin daɗi sosai. Kuma idan kana son a gudanar da irin wannan son zuciya a matsayin bincike na tsawon shekaru 80, tsarin watsi na IBM shine fayil ɗin shaidar da aka samo.

Tambayar tantancewa

Menene farashin isar da mummunan labari ga shugabancin ku ga wanda ya isar da shi — kuma ta yaya za ku sani?

Inda Argumentree Ya Dace

Argumentree shine gyara na uku, wanda aka gina a matsayin software, tare da na farko biyu an tsara su a ciki. Kowanne shawarwari yana zama itace na hujjoji masu goyon baya da na kai hari, don haka mummunan shari'a yana zama tsarin da ake bukata, ba aikin jarumta ba. Hujjoji suna samun kimantawa bisa ga ingancinsu — itacen yana rubuta tunani, ba matsayi ba, wanda ke cire darajar iko daga dakin. Kuma saboda ana iya gabatar da hujjoji a cikin sirri inda ƙungiya ta ba da izini, yanayin gazawar Nokia — mummunan labarai da tsoro ya tace — yana rasa tsarin sa.

Ajiyar yana gudanar da aikin dogon lokaci: kowanne hukunci da aka tsara yana da sauƙin bincike, don haka tsarin da ƙungiyarku ke maimaitawa yana daina zama ba a gani.

Bayanan da ya kamata ka damu da su.

Bayan jerin abubuwa guda goma sha biyu, gaskiyar taƙaitaccen bayani ita ce ba za ka iya riƙe kulawa guda goma sha biyu a cikin tunani yayin taron kai tsaye ba — kuma shaidar na nuna cewa ba lallai ne ka yi hakan ba. Wani alƙawari na tsari yana maye gurbin yawancin kulawar: babu wani muhimmin hukunci ba tare da rubutaccen hujja a kansa ba, wanda mutane da za su iya rubuta shi suka samar.

Kamfanoni sun yanke shawara kan kowanne bala'i a wannan shafin tare da mutane masu basira da tsare-tsaren lissafi masu tsauri. Tsari ya doke nazari, da kashi shida, a cikin kuskuren hanya. Nuna kashi a wata hanya. A cikin tattaunawar rukuni, son zuciya suna sanye da kayan taro masu siffar taro — lambar farko ta zama Tatsuniyar Kafawa, kalmar karshe ta zama Tatsuniyar Sabon Abin da Ya Faru — kuma nau'ikan da aka ambata su ne wadanda kungiyar za ta iya kira a cikin dakin.

Ba ka gyara mai yanke hukunci ba. Ka gyara dakin da ake yanke hukunci a ciki.

Ba da Tsari ga Maimaitawa

Tsuntsaye na hujja da ke bukatar akasin shari'a, kimantawa da ke watsi da matsayi, da kuma rajistar da za a iya bincika ta kowanne hukunci — gyaran tsarin, yana gudana a matsayin software.

Hanyoyin Koyo & Karin Karatu

Lovallo, D. & Sibony, O. (2010). Hujjar dabarun halayya. McKinsey QuarterlyNazarin yanke shawara na 1,048 (tsari fiye da nazari da kashi shida) da binciken shugabanni na 2,207 (28% suna kimanta yanke shawarar kamfanoninsu a matsayin mai kyau gaba ɗaya).
Vuori, T. O. & Huy, Q. N. (2016). Rarraba Hankali da Jin Dadi na Gabaɗaya a cikin Tsarin Kirkira: Yadda Nokia ta Rasa Yaƙin Smartphone. Administrative Science Quarterly, 61(1), 9–51Nazarin cikin gida na Nokia 2005–2010: tsoron da aka raba, labaran mummuna da aka tace, da alkawarin da ya wuce — labarin da bude sako mai sanyi ke bi.
Klein, G. (2007). Aikin Wani Shirin Premortem. Harvard Business Review, Satumba 2007Hanyar premortem kamar yadda marubucinta ya bayyana.
Mitchell, D. J., Russo, J. E. & Pennington, N. (1989). Komawa ga makomar: Duba lokaci a cikin bayanin abubuwa. Jaridar Yanke Shawara na Halayya, 2(1), 25–38Gwajin hangen nesa na gaba da ke bayan adadin 30%.
Nemeth, C., Brown, K. & Rogers, J. (2001). Mai kare shaidan da jayayya ta gaskiya: Tabbatar da yawan da inganci. Jaridar Turai ta Ilimin Zamani, 31(6), 707–720An sanya aikin kare shaidan yana haifar da karfafa; sabuwar mabanbanta tana fadada tunani — gyara ga tsarin wasa na yau da kullum.
Kahneman, D. (2011). Tunani, Da Sauri Da Jinkiri. Farrar, Straus da GirouxAsusun Tsarin 1/Tsarin 2 na dalilin da yasa sanin son zuciya kadai ke kasa aiki, da babin kuskuren shiri.
Rahoton Kwamitin Shugaban Kasa kan Hadarin Jirgin Sama na Challenger (1986)Babban rikodin da ke bayan gungun tunani na Challenger.

Tambayoyi da ake yawan yi

Menene mafi haɗari ra'ayin tunani a cikin dabarun kamfani?

Binciken tabbatarwa, saboda yana aiki ba tare da an gan shi ba kuma yana taruwa: shugabanci yana ci gaba da samun shaidar da ta dace da dabarun yanzu saboda shaidar da ta sabawa ana tace ta a hanya. Nazarin Nokia na Vuori da Huy (2016) yana nuna tsarin a babban mataki — manajoji na tsakiya, suna jin tsoron manyan su, sun sassauta mummunan labarai har sai shugabannin sama suna yanke shawara bisa ga bayanan da aka canza. Karewa tana da tsarin: a bukaci rubutaccen hujja mai akasin kowane muhimmin yanke shawara.

Me binciken ke cewa yana inganta yanke shawarar dabaru?

Ingancin tsari. A cikin binciken McKinsey Quarterly na Lovallo da Sibony na yanke shawara guda 1,048, tsarin yanke shawara — tattaunawa ta gaskiya, rashin tabbas mai bayyana, adawa mai lafiya, ka'idoji da aka saita a gaba — ya bayyana kyawawan sakamako sau shida fiye da ingancin nazari. Kawai kashi 28% na shugabannin da aka yi wa bincike guda 2,207 sun rated yanke shawarar dabarun kamfanoninsu a matsayin kyawawa gaba ɗaya, wanda shine gibin da tsare-tsaren gyara ke magancewa.

Menene premortem kuma shin yana aiki da gaske?

A premortem, wanda Gary Klein ya bayyana a HBR (2007), yana tambayar ƙungiya ta ɗauka cewa shirin ya riga ya gaza kuma ta rubuta dalilan da suka sa hakan ya faru kafin tattaunawa. Ku yi hankali da kididdigar da aka saba haɗawa da ita: ikirarin cewa hangen nesa na gaba yana ƙara ingantaccen tantance dalilai da kashi 30% yana kuskure wajen fassara Mitchell, Russo da Pennington (1989). Wannan binciken ya bayar da rahoton cewa hangen lokaci — tsawon lokaci na baya da na gaba — ba ya nuna tasiri mai yawa, yayin da tabbataccen sakamako ya shafi yawan da nau'in bayanan da aka samar; ba a tantance ko waɗannan dalilan sun dace ba. Hanyar tana ci gaba da samun matsayinta, saboda ainihin tsarin ta na zamantakewa ne maimakon kididdiga: yana sa shakku zama aikin da aka ba da maimakon zama aikin jarumta, kuma matakin rubuta kai tsaye yana kiyaye tsayawa da shaidar zamantakewa daga farkon juyawa.

Shin ya kamata mu nada mai kare ra'ayin shaidan don manyan shawara?

Shaidar ta ce a'a — nemi kuma ka kare ainihin rashin jituwa maimakon haka. Nazarin Nemeth na 2001 ya kwatanta masu kare ra'ayi da aka sanya da ainihin masu rashin jituwa: rawar da aka sanya yawanci tana haifar da karfafa tunani (kungiyoyi suna samar da dalilai da yawa da suka tabbatar da cewa suna da gaskiya), yayin da ainihin rashin jituwa ke haifar da tunani mai fadi da hanyoyin magance matsaloli masu kirkira. Matar da ta dace ita ce rage farashin rashin jituwa mai gaskiya — zaɓuɓɓukan rashin sanin suna, hujjoji da aka kimanta ba tare da matsayi ba — maimakon shirya rashin jituwa.

Ta yaya ra'ayin tunani ya taimaka wajen raguwar Nokia?

Ba yadda aka saba ba a cikin labarin. Binciken Vuori da Huy na 2016 a cikin Administrative Science Quarterly ya gano cewa gazawar Nokia ta samo asali ne daga tsoron da aka raba: manyan manajoji suna tsoron masu fafatawa daga waje da masu hannun jari kuma suna matsa lamba ba tare da bayyana yadda barazanar take da tsanani ba; manajoji na tsakiya suna tsoron manyan su kuma suna tace mummunan labarai da kuma yin alkawura fiye da kima. Ilimin kamfanin da kansa ba ya kai ga yanke shawara cikin tsari — gazawar watsawar bayani, ba gazawar basira ba.

Me yasa horon sanin son zuciya ba ya magance matsalar?

Saboda ra'ayoyi suna aiki a ƙasa da lura da kai — sanin jerin ba ya ja hankalinka yayin da ra'ayi ke tsara hukuncinka, kuma Kahneman kansa ya kasance mai shakku sosai cewa nazarin ra'ayoyi ya inganta hankalinsa. Hanyoyin da ke da hujja a bayansu suna canza yanayin yanke shawara maimakon haka: premortems, kare sahihan sabani, da tsarin muhawara da aka rubuta wanda ke tilasta shaidar akasin a cikin rajista.

Ta yaya tsarin muhawara ke rage son zuciya na tunani?

Yana canza kariya daga son zuciya daga kulawar mutum zuwa bukatun tsari. Itace mai tsari tana bukatar a rubuta hujjojin da suka sabawa (kan son tabbatarwa), tana gabatar da tsarin gasa a gefe da gefe (kan kullewa da tsari), tana tantance hujjoji ta hanyar shaidar da kimantawa maimakon ta hanyar matsayi (kan son iko), kuma tana adana tarihin da za a iya bincika wanda ke bayyana tsarin maimaitawa na wata kungiya a tsawon lokaci.

Daina Barin Mafi Karfin Murya Ya Ci Gaba

Tsara hujjojin, bukaci hujjar akasin, kuma a adana rikodin — kare son zuciya a matsayin tsari, ba a matsayin kulawa ba.

Babu katin kiredit da ake bukataSaita cikin mintunaSake janye a kowane lokaci

A T

Game da Argumentree Team

Behavioral Science

The Argumentree team is building the collaborative decision-making platform Argumentree. Our mission is to transform how organizations make, document, and learn from decisions.

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