Tsarin Kora na IBM: Yadda Kamfani Daya Ya Gudu Daga Kowanne Babban Juyin Halitta na Kwamfuta
IBM ta ki xerography (1944), ta watsi da minicomputers (1960s-1976), ta watsi da personal computers (1977-1980), ta ba da hakkin DOS ga Microsoft (1980), ta kasa samun keɓaɓɓen hakkin Intel chip (1980), ta kaddamar da PCjr wanda ya gaza (1984), ta yi jinkirin rungumar intanet (1990s), ta rasa cloud computing ga AWS (2003-2013), ta rasa juyin juya hali na wayar hannu gaba ɗaya, ta gaza tare da Watson AI a cikin kiwon lafiya ($62M MD Anderson bala'i), ta sayi kuma ta yi watsi da Lotus Notes ($3.5B zuwa $1.8B), kuma a ƙarshe ta sayar da kasuwancin PC ɗinta ga Lenovo (2005). Wannan tsarin ya shafi shekaru 80 kuma ya haifar da masu gasa masu darajar trillions yayin da kasuwar IBM ta fadi daga jagoran fasaha zuwa ~$200 biliyan. Kurakuran yanke shawara da suka maimaita sun haɗa da son ci gaba, son tabbatarwa, kare hanyoyin samun kudaden shiga na yanzu, jinkirin gudanarwa, mai da hankali kan riba a kowanne rabo na hannun jari, da rashin gane sabbin fasahohi har sai masu gasa sun mamaye. Microsoft, Apple, Intel, Amazon, Google, da Xerox duk sun girma zuwa mamaye a kasuwannin da IBM ta watsi ko ta bar.
Tarihin IBM yana da darasi mai kyau kan yadda kamfanoni masu karfi ke watsi da sabbin fasahohi — kuma suna ƙirƙirar abokan hamayya nasu a cikin wannan tsari.
- 12 manyan rashin nasara a cikin shekaru 80: xerography, minicomputers, PCs, DOS, Intel chips, intanet, gajimare, wayar hannu, AI
- Hanyar iri ɗaya: ƙi a matsayin "karami sosai," kare kudaden shigar da ke akwai, shiga daga baya, rasa ga masu motsa farko
- Kudin: Microsoft ($2.9T), Apple ($3T+), Amazon ($2T+), Google ($2T+) — kamfanonin da IBM ta taimaka wajen ƙirƙira ko kuma za ta iya mallaka
- Darasin: kuskuren yanke shawara yana taruwa. Irin waɗannan son zuciya da suka ƙi xerography a 1944 sun ƙi gajimare a 2010
Yana da wahala a sami kamfanin fasaha da ya rasa yawan damar da zai zama jagora.
Wannan ba harin mai sukar ba ne. Wannan ra'ayin jituwa ne na shekaru 80 da suka gabata na IBM.
80 Years of Missed Opportunities
Mafi Tsada Tsarin a Tarihin Kasuwanci
A cikin 1944, shugabannin IBM sun duba kirkirar xerography na Chester Carlson suka ce takardar carbon ta fi arha.
A cikin 1976, IBM ta karshe ta gabatar da minicomputer — bayan ta yi watsi da kasuwar na tsawon shekaru 19 yayin da Digital Equipment Corporation ta zama kamfanin kwamfuta na biyu mafi girma a duniya.
A cikin 1980, IBM ta sanya hannu kan kwangila da ta ba Bill Gates mai shekaru 24 damar riƙe hakkin sayar da DOS ga kowane mutum da ya so. Wannan tanadi guda ɗaya ne ya haifar da Microsoft.
A cikin 2013, IBM ta kashe dala biliyan 130 kan sayen hannun jari maimakon gina tsarin gajimare. A yau, AWS na samar da karin kudaden shiga fiye da dukkan kamfanin IBM.
Wannan ba labari ne game da wata mummunar shawara ba. Wannan labari ne game da tsari — irin waɗannan kuskuren tunani, irin waɗannan gazawar ƙungiya, da irin wannan watsi da sabbin fasahohi, wanda aka maimaita a cikin shekaru takwas.
A yau, kasuwar IBM tana da kimar kusan dala biliyan 200. Ta Microsoft tana da dala tiriliyan 2.9. Ta Apple ta wuce dala tiriliyan 3. Amazon da Google kowanne suna sama da dala tiriliyan 2. Kowanne daga cikin wadannan kamfanonin ya karu a kasuwannin da IBM ko dai ta yi watsi da su, ta bar su, ko kuma ta taimaka wajen kirkirar su ba da gangan ba.
Tambayar ba ta kasance "Ta yaya IBM ta yi waɗannan kuskuren?" Tambayar ita ce: "Me ya sa suka ci gaba da yin wannan kuskuren?"
1. Xerography: Kirkirar Dakin Girki da IBM Ta Ce Babu Wanda Ya Bukata (1939-1944)
Mai Kirkira a Kicin
Chester Carlson wani lauya ne na hakkin mallaka wanda ya ki yin kwafi takardu da hannu. A cikin shekarun 1930, ya fara bincike kan abin da ya kira "electrophotography" — wani tsari na kwafi mai bushe wanda ba ya bukatar sinadarai masu datti na hanyoyin da ake da su.
Carlson ya yi aiki a cikin dakunan gwaje-gwaje na wucin gadi, wani lokaci yana amfani da kitchen dinsa, wani lokaci kuma dakin haya. A farkon shekarun 1940, ya sami ra'ayi mai aiki. Abin da kawai yake bukata shine kudade don kasuwanci.
Tsakanin 1939 da 1944, Carlson ya danna ƙofofin fiye da kamfanoni 20. Ya tuntubi kowane babban mai kera kayan ofis: IBM, General Electric, RCA, Kodak. Amsar ta kasance ta duniya.
Bana sha'awar.
Taron IBM da ya kusan faruwa
A watan Maris na shekarar 1941, shugaban binciken kasuwa na IBM ya nemi a nuna masa abin da Carlson ya kirkiro. Wannan na iya zama lokacin da ya canza komai.
Amma Carlson ya fuskanci wata babbar matsala: ba shi da samfurin aiki da zai nuna. Duk da shekaru na kokari da babban zuba jari na kudi, samfurin gwaji na shi ya yi nisa daga zama mai aiki. Zai iya bayyana ra'ayin, amma ba zai iya samar da kwafi masu amfani ba.
Irequest na IBM na ci gaba da ganin samfurin ya sa Carlson jin haushi da guje-guje. Ya san cewa kirkirarsa ba ta shirya don nuna ba. Damar ta wuce.
Matsayin hukuma na IBM ya bayyana: sun ji cewa takardar carbon hanya ce mai arha. Me ya sa a saka jari a cikin fasaha da ba a gwada ba yayin da mafita ta yanzu ke aiki?
Hukuncin Lissafi
Daga hangen nesan IBM a shekarun 1941-1944, kin amincewa ya yi ma'ana:
- Takardar carbon ta yi aiki. Tana da arha, an saba da ita, kuma ba ta bukatar sabbin kayan aiki.
- Carlson ba zai iya nuna samfur mai aiki ba.
- Kasuwar "kwafi ta atomatik" ba ta tabbatar ba.
- Babban kasuwancin IBM shine na'urar lissafi da katunan danna, ba kayan ofis ba.
Abin da ya faru ainihin
A cikin 1944, Battelle Memorial Institute — wata ƙungiya mai zaman kanta ta bincike — ta ba Carlson dama. A cikin 1947, wani ƙaramin kamfanin takarda na hoto mai suna Haloid ya ba da lasisi ga fasahar.
Haloid ta zama Haloid Xerox a 1958, sannan Xerox Corporation a 1961.
Xerox 914 mai kwafi, wanda aka gabatar a 1959, ya zama daya daga cikin kayayyakin da suka fi nasara a tarihin kasuwancin Amurka. Ya canza aikin ofis kuma ya sa Xerox zama babban karfi a fasahar kasuwanci.
IBM ba ta shiga kasuwar kwafi ba har sai shekaru 30 bayan haka, a 1970. Lokacin da suka yi haka, Xerox nan da nan ta kai su kara bisa zargin karya hakkin mallaka.
Darasin da aka yi watsi da shi
Wannan ya kamata ya zama kira ga IBM. Fasahar da suka yi watsi da ita a matsayin mara amfani — saboda maganin da ake da shi ya bayyana "mai kyau isasshe" — ya haifar da sabuwar masana'antu gaba ɗaya da kuma mai gasa mai ƙarfi.
Amma IBM ba ta koyi wannan darasin ba. Za su maimaita wannan tsarin, kusan daidai, tare da juyin juya hali na gaba.
2. Minicomputers: Shekaru 19 na watsi da juyin juya hali (1957-1976)
Haihuwar DEC
A cikin 1957, Kenneth Olsen ya kafa Kamfanin Kayan Aikin Dijital (DEC) tare da $70,000 a cikin jarin kasuwanci. Burinsa ya kasance mai sauki: kwamfutoci ba lallai ne su zama manyan na'urori masu girman daki da ke kashe miliyoyin daloli ba.
Yayin da IBM ke sayar da manyan kwamfutoci ga kamfanonin Fortune 500, DEC ta fara gina kananan, masu araha na'ura ga masana kimiyya, injiniyoyi, da masu bincike da ba za su iya sayen — ko kuma ba su bukata — manyan tsarin IBM ba.
Kora IBM
IBM ta yi watsi da minicomputers har ba za ta gabatar da wani ba har zuwa 1976 — shekaru 19 bayan an kafa DEC.
Hankali ya kasance mai kyau: minicomputers suna "kanana sosai don yin lissafi mai tsanani." Abokan cinikin IBM sune manyan kamfanoni da ke bukatar gaske karfin sarrafawa. Me yasa wani zai so na'ura kanana, mai karancin iya aiki?
A halin yanzu, tsakanin 1968 da 1972, kamfanoni ninety-two sun gabatar da minicomputers. Sabon masana'antu na haifuwa, kuma IBM ba ta cikin sa.
PDP-8: Kwamfutar Da Ta Canza Komai
A cikin 1965, DEC ta fitar da PDP-8 akan $18,000 kawai — wanda ya sa ta zama kwamfuta mafi arha a kasuwa, yana rage farashi sosai ga IBM da sauran masu kera manyan kwamfutoci.
PDP-8 ya sami abokan ciniki da IBM ba ta taɓa tsammani ba: dakunan bincike, jami'o'i, ƙananan masana'antun, tsarin sarrafa aiki. Ya tabbatar da cewa "karami" ba ya nufin "karancin amfani" — yana nufin "samun sauƙin ga mutane da yawa."
Kadan, Jirgin Lokaci
Lokacin da IBM ta shiga kasuwar minicomputer tare da Series/1 a 1976, DEC ta riga ta kafa kusan mulkin kama-karya. A farkon shekarun 1980, DEC ita ce kamfanin kwamfuta na biyu mafi girma a duniya, tana kalubalantar IBM kai tsaye don jagorancin kasuwa.
VAX minicomputer ya kasance mai rahusa sosai har wani babban jami'in kasa zai iya amincewa da kashe kudin. Sayen IBM mainframe yana bukatar amincewa a matakin manyan jami'ai. IBM ta yi watsi da wani bangare na kasuwa gaba daya saboda ba su ga darajar na'urorin da ba su kasance mainframes ba.
Irin ƙarfin ƙarfe
Ga inda labarin ya zama mai ban sha'awa: Ken Olsen, wanda ya gina DEC ta hanyar amfani da wurin da IBM ba ta gani ba, yana da nasa wurin da ba ya gani.
A cikin 1977, a taron kungiyar Duniya ta Makomar Al'umma, an ce Olsen ya fada: "Babu dalilin da zai sa kowanne mutum ya mallaki kwamfuta a gidansa."
(Olsen ya bayyana daga baya cewa yana magana ne akan kwamfutocin "kulawa da gida" na tsakiya, ba kwamfutocin mutum ba. Amma wannan furucin ya nuna gazawar tunani da ta shafi dabarun DEC.)
Kamfanin da ya tashi ta hanyar ganin abin da IBM ya rasa... ya rasa juyin juya hali na gaba da kansa. DEC ba ta taba samun nasarar canza zuwa kwamfutocin mutum ba kuma an saye ta daga Compaq a 1998 akan dala biliyan 9.6. Compaq daga bisani an saye ta daga HP.
Tsarin sallama ba na musamman bane ga IBM. Cutar ce da ke kamuwa da shugabannin kasuwa.
3. Kwamfutocin Kaina: "Sana'a Mai Girma Ta Yi Karanci" (1977-1980)
Apple II ya iso
A cikin 1977, matasa biyu da aka kira Steve Jobs da Steve Wozniak sun gabatar da Apple II — kwamfutar mutum ta farko kamar yadda muka sani a yau. Tana da maballin rubutu, allon nuna, kuma an kammala ta gaba ɗaya. Mutane na yau da kullum za su iya sayen ta da amfani da ita a gida.
Amsar IBM ta yi daidai da watsi da minicomputer: kwamfutocin mutum suna "kanana don yin lissafi mai tsanani" kuma saboda haka "ba su da muhimmanci ga kasuwancinsu."
Tsarin Karyatawa
Kafin Apple ta zama Apple, Jobs da Wozniak sun yi kokarin sayar da kirkirarsu ga kamfanoni da suka kafa. HP ta ki yarda da su. Commodore ta ki yarda da su.
IBM ba ta taɓa ɗaukar kwamfutocin mutum a matsayin kasuwa mai kyau don shiga ba. Abokan cinikinta kamfanoni ne, ba masu sha'awar ba.
Kiran Tashi
A tsakiyar shekarar 1980, shugabannin IBM suna da dalilin damuwa. Kwamfutocin mutum ba su kasance kayan wasa ba. VisiCalc, shirin farko na lissafi, yana canza Apple IIs zuwa kayan aikin kasuwanci. Abokan ciniki suna tambayar game da kwamfutocin mutum. Wasu suna sayen su tare da ko ba tare da amincewar IBM ba.
Ya zama bayyane cewa IBM tana bukatar sayar da kwamfutar tafi-da-gidanka. Abokan cinikinta suna sa ran hakan. Tambayar ita ce ko IBM za ta iya motsawa da sauri isasshe.
4. Aikin Chess: Shawarwarin da suka bayar da masana'antar PC (1980-1981)
Aikin Sirri a Boca Raton
A cikin 1980, William Lowe, daraktan lab ɗin Rukunin Tsarin Gaba ɗaya na IBM a Boca Raton, Florida, ya gabatar wa shugaban IBM Frank Cary ra'ayi mai ƙarfi: gina kwamfutar mutum guda a cikin shekara guda, sayar da ita akan $1,500.
Cary ya ba Lowe wata guda don haɓaka samfurin ƙira — kuma shekara guda ɗaya don fitar da samfurin kasuwa. Ga kamfani inda manyan ayyuka yawanci ke ɗaukar shekaru uku zuwa biyar, wannan ya kasance mai juyin juya hali.
Lowe an daga matsayin sa nan take, kuma ci gaban ya faɗi hannun Don Estridge — wani injiniya mai shekaru 43 wanda zai zama sananne da suna "uba na IBM PC." An sanya wa aikin suna "Chess."
Hukuncin Uku Masu Tsanani
Don cimma wa'adin da ba zai yiwu ba, tawagar Estridge ta ki yarda da tsauraran al'adun kamfanin IBM. Sun yanke shawara uku da za su canza masana'antar — kuma a ƙarshe su rushe matsayin IBM a kasuwar da suka ƙirƙira:
- Shawara 1: Kayan aiki na kasuwa. Maimakon ƙirƙirar sassa na musamman (hanyar da IBM ke bi akai-akai), sun yi amfani da kayan da ake sayarwa a kasuwa. CPU ɗin shine Intel's 8088 — wani chip da kowa zai iya saya.
- Shawara 2: Tsarin bude. Sun buga takardun fasahar PC, suna gayyatar masu haɓaka na uku don ƙirƙirar software da kayan haɗi.
- Shawara 3: Tsarin aiki da aka ba da lasisi. Maimakon haɓaka software a cikin gida, sun ba da lasisi ga tsarin aiki daga Microsoft — ƙaramar kamfani da Bill Gates, mai shekaru 24, ke gudanarwa.
Me yasa waɗannan shawarar suka yi ma'ana (a lokacin)
Kowane hukunci yana da ma'ana bisa ga iyakokin:
- Kayan chips na musamman za su ɗauki shekaru. Intel's 8088 yana nan a shirye yanzu.
- Tsarin mallaka zai iyakance samuwar software. Takardun buɗe suna nufin cewa ƙarin masu haɓaka za su gina don dandamali.
- Gina tsarin aiki daga tushe zai jawo jinkiri a cikin jadawalin. DOS na Microsoft ya kasance (kusantar) shirye.
Fara
A ranar 12 ga Agusta, 1981, Don Estridge ya gabatar da IBM PC a Otal din Waldorf na New York. Ya kasance babban nasara. Alamar IBM ta tabbatar da ingancin kwamfutar mutum ga abokan ciniki na kamfanoni da suka yi watsi da Apple a matsayin kayan wasa.
Amma hukuncin uku da suka ba da damar saurin kaddamarwa sun riga sun sa IBM cikin hadarin faduwa.
Tragedy na Don Estridge
Don Estridge, mai hangen nesa wanda ya jagoranci Project Chess, ya mutu a ranar 2 ga Agusta, 1985, a cikin hatsarin jirgin Delta Flight 191 kusa da Dallas. Ya kasance mai shekaru 48.
A lokacin, masu yin kwafi sun riga sun fara cin abincin IBM. Kasuwar da Estridge ya kirkira tana raguwa daga kamfanin da ya kirkiro ta.
5. Yarjejeniyar DOS: Yadda IBM Ta Kirkiri Microsoft (Agusta-Nuwamba 1980)
Kiran Wayar
A ranar 21 ga Yuli, 1980, Jack Sams na IBM ya kira wani matashi mai kasuwancin software a Seattle. "Kada ka yi farin ciki sosai," Sams ya gaya masa, "kuma kada ka yi tunanin wani abu mai girma na shirin faruwa."
Dan kasuwa shine Bill Gates. Yana da shekaru 24. Lokacin da Sams da abokan aikinsa na IBM suka iso ofishin Microsoft, Sams ya yi tunanin Gates ɗin ɗan ofis ne — yana da jikin yaro mai shekaru 12.
IBM na bukatar tsarin aiki don sabuwar kwamfutarsu ta mutum. Gates ya jagoranci Microsoft, wanda aka sani da sigar sa ta yaren shirin BASIC. Ba su yi tsarin aiki ba.
Tarihin Gary Kildall
Gates ya gaya wa IBM su tuntubi Gary Kildall a Digital Research. Kildall ya kirkiro CP/M — tsarin aiki mai karfi ga kwamfutoci masu karamin girma a lokacin. Ya kasance shekaru 13 babba fiye da Gates, yana da digiri na PhD a fannin Kimiyyar Kwamfuta, kuma yana gudanar da kamfani mai suna.
Abin da ya faru daga baya yana daga cikin labaran "me zai faru idan" mafi girma a fannin kwamfuta — kuma labarun sun bambanta sosai.
21 ga Agusta, 1980: Taron da ya canza komai
A ranar Alhamis, 21 ga Agusta, 1980, tawagar IBM ta iso hedkwatar Digital Research a Pacific Grove, California.
Sigogin IBM: Gary Kildall ba ya nan — yana cikin jirgin sama na kansa. Matar sa da abokin kasuwancinsa, Dorothy McEwen, ta ki sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar rashin bayyana bayanai ta IBM. Bayan awanni na tattaunawa, shugabannin IBM da suka gaji sun tafi ba tare da ma fara tattaunawa ba.
Version Kildall: Ya dawo daga tafiya ta kasuwanci a wannan yammacin, ya sanya hannu kan NDA, kuma ya hadu da IBM a tsawon ranar. Sun cimma fahimta don bayar da lasisi ga CP/M. Har ma ya canza jirgin sama don tafiya tare da wakilan IBM komawa Florida. Sun yi yarjejeniya ta hannu.
Matsalar Gaskiya
Bayan rikicin NDA, akwai sabani mai ma'ana a cikin kasuwanci:
IBM ta so ta biya wani kudin doka na dindindin don hakkin CP/M. Kildall ya so a biya masa hakkin mallaka bisa kowanne kwafi da aka sayar.
Kildall ya sanya hannu kan kwangiloli na "kasashe masu fifiko" tare da abokan cinikin sa na yanzu. Ba zai iya ba wa IBM mafi kyawun sharuɗɗa ba tare da bayar da irin wannan yarjejeniya ga kowa ba.
Mafi mahimmanci: CP/M-86 (sigar da za ta yi aiki akan chips na Intel 8086/8088) ba za a iya isar da ita a cikin lokacin IBM ba.
Duk da dalilin, IBM ta bayyana cewa tattaunawar ta gaza. Sun koma ga Gates.
Gates Ya Yi Mataki
Gates ba shi da tsarin aiki. Amma ya san wani wanda ke da shi.
Seattle Computer Products ta haɓaka tsarin aiki mai suna QDOS — "Tsarin Aiki Mai Sauri da Karya." An rubuta shi ne ta Tim Paterson kuma an tsara shi don ya dace da CP/M.
Tare da goyon bayan sirri na IBM, Microsoft ta sayi QDOS. Paul Allen ya tattauna yarjejeniyar lasisi: kudin duka na $10,000, tare da $15,000 ga kowace kamfani da Microsoft ta ba da lasisi ga OS, tare da SCP tana bayar da hakkin da ba na musamman ba. Seattle Computer Products ba su san wanda ke bayar da kudin wannan yarjejeniyar ba — idan sun san, farashin zai kasance mafi girma.
A watan Yuli na shekarar 1981, Microsoft ta sayi QDOS gaba ɗaya akan $50,000. Gates ya sake masa suna MS-DOS.
Kundin Da Ya Kirkiri Microsoft
A ranar 6 ga Nuwamba, 1980, Microsoft da IBM sun sanya hannu kan kwangilar karshe. Gates ya yarda ya sayar da DOS ga IBM akan kudi mai sauki na $50,000 — wanda ya yi kasa da abin da CP/M zai kashe.
Amma ga abin da IBM ta rasa: yarjejeniyar hakkin mallaka ce mara keɓantawa.
Hakkin IBM ba su kasance na musamman ba. Gates ya ci gaba da mallakar shirin DOS. Microsoft na iya sayar da MS-DOS ga kowane wanda suka so — ciki har da duk masu kera kwafin PC da zasu cika kasuwar nan ba da daɗewa ba.
Steve Ballmer, ma'aikacin Microsoft, ya goyi bayan Gates a lokacin tattaunawar. Duka sun fahimci abin da lauyoyin IBM ba su fahimta ba: tsarin aiki zai fi na'urar zama mai daraja.
Rawar Bill Gates: Fiye da Karya mai Sauki
Abin sha'awa, babu wata sabani game da wani bangare: Gates a farko ya yi ƙoƙarin taimakawa Kildall. Ya tura ƙungiyar IBM zuwa Digital Research. Lokacin da tattaunawa ta rushe, ya kira Kildall don ƙarfafa shi ya farfaɗo da tattaunawar.
Bayan Kildall ya kasa cimma yarjejeniya da IBM ne kawai Gates — wanda Paul Allen da Kay Nishi suka tabbatar masa — ya yanke shawarar cewa Microsoft ya bayar da tsarin aiki don ceton aikin.
Gates ba ya sace damar. An ba shi.
6. Kuskurin Chip na Intel: Ba da damar Masana'antar Kwayoyin (1980-1981)
Yarjejeniyar DOS ba ita ce kawai kuskuren muhimmanci na IBM ba. Hakanan sun kasa samun hakkin mallaka na chip din Intel 8088 da ya ba da karfin kwamfutar IBM.
Wannan yana nufin Intel na iya sayar da waɗannan masu sarrafawa ga kowa — Compaq, Dell, HP, da kuma a ƙarshe dubban masu ƙera "IBM-compatible" kwafi.
IBM ta bude duka kayan aikin (Intel chips, takardun bayanai da aka buga) da kuma software (lasisin DOS mara keɓancewa). Abu guda daya da ya bambanta PC na IBM shine tambarin IBM.
Harbin Kwafi
Tsarin budadden ginin da ya ba da damar ci gaba cikin sauri ya kuma ba da damar gasa. A watan Yuni na shekarar 1982 — kasa da shekara guda bayan fitar da IBM PC — Columbia Data Products ta fitar da farko na kwafin IBM PC mai aiki.
A cikin 1983, Compaq ta fitar da Compaq Portable, wanda aka tallata a matsayin na'ura mai kwakwalwa ta farko "100% mai jituwa da IBM". Ba kamar IBM ba, Compaq kamfani ne mai sauri wanda zai iya motsawa da sauri.
IBM ta kirkiro da wani tsari na masana'antu da ba ta ke sarrafawa ba. Masu kera kwafi na iya gina kayan aiki masu kama da su a farashi mai rahusa kuma akai-akai suna iya kirkirar sabbin abubuwa fiye da yadda hukumar IBM ta ba da izini.
Me yasa IBM ta yi hakan duk da haka
Shawarar IBM ta yi ma'ana a cikin mahallin lokacin kammala na watanni 12. Kayan chips na musamman za su dauki shekaru. Yarjejeniyar musamman da Intel za ta bukaci karin lokacin tattaunawa. Tsarin mallaka zai iyakance samuwar software.
Amma waɗannan su ne ƙananan ingantaccen tsari da suka sadaukar da matsayin dabarun dogon lokaci. IBM ta ci nasara a cikin yaƙin (samar da PC a kan lokaci) amma ta sha kashi a cikin yaƙin (sarrafawa masana'antar PC).
7. Matsalar PCjr: Yadda IBM Ta Gaskiya a Kasuwar Gida (1983-1985)
A cikin kokarin kama kasuwar kwamfutocin gida, IBM ta kaddamar da PCjr a watan Nuwamba na shekarar 1983. An tsara shi musamman a matsayin madadin mai rahusa da mai sauƙin amfani ga IBM PC.
Abin takaici, PCjr ya kasance gazawar kasuwanci tare da sayarwa marasa kyau da kuma matsaloli masu yawa na fasaha. Maballin — wanda aka sanya masa suna "maballin chiclet" — ya kasance kusan ba a iya amfani da shi. Na'urar ta kasance da ƙarfin wuta mai rauni da kuma farashi mai yawa idan aka kwatanta da masu fafatawa.
IBM ta tilasta dakatar da PCjr bayan watanni 18 kawai, a watan Maris na 1985. Kamfanin da ya shiga kasuwar kwamfutocin mutum ba tare da shiri ba bai iya gano yadda zai yi wa masu amfani a gida hidima ba.
8. Juyin Juya Hali na Intanet: Jinkirin Karɓar Yanar Gizo (1990s)
Wani Tsari Yana Maimaituwa
rashin nasarar IBM na karɓar Intanet da haɓakar kwamfutar hannu ya kasance mai tsada sosai. IBM ta yi jinkirin gane ƙarfin canji na Duniya Duniya.
Yayinda IBM a ƙarshe ta karɓi intanet — Steve Mills, shugaban ƙungiyar software ta IBM, ya jagoranci tattaunawa kan yadda za a "Webify" kayan aikin kasuwancin kamfanin, wanda ya haifar da WebSphere a 1998 — sun rasa muhimman damammaki na farko.
Dama da aka rasa
IBM ta rasa damar kafa iko a:
- Bincike: An kafa Google a 1998 ta hannun dalibai biyu na Stanford. IBM tana da manyan kayan aikin kwamfuta da dangantaka da kamfanoni. Ba su taɓa neman bincike da gaske ba.
- E-commerce: Amazon ta kaddamar a 1994. IBM tana sayarwa ga manyan kamfanoni da zasu zama manyan masu sayar da kayayyaki ta yanar gizo. Sun iya zama tushen wannan tsarin. Amma ba su zama ba.
- Ayyukan gajimare: Wannan zai zama mafi tsada a gare su daga dukkan su.
9. Kwamfutocin Gajimare: Kuskurin Dala Biliyan 130 (2003-2013)
Ganin Gerstner
Lou Gerstner ana yawan danganta shi da ceto IBM. Lokacin da ya iso a matsayin Shugaba a 1993, kamfanin yana cikin asarar biliyoyin kuma da yawa suna tsammanin za a raba shi. Maimakon haka, Gerstner ya ci gaba da hada IBM tare da sake tsara shi a kan ayyuka.
Lokacin da Gerstner ya bar kamfanin a 2002, ya bar tare da hangen nesa mai kyau: gajimare da kwamfuta bisa bukata za su bayyana makomar.
Ya yi gaskiya.
Abin da shugabannin IBM suka yi imani da shi a gaskiya
Amma shugabancin IBM bayan Gerstner ya zabi kare hanyoyin samun kudaden shiga na yanzu maimakon gina tsarin gajimare. Tsoffin ma'aikatan IBM suna bayyana tunanin cikin gida:
- AWS na asarar kudi.
- Kamfanoni ba za su yarda da Amazon ba.
- Zamu shiga cikin gajimare lokacin da kasuwa ta girma.
- Alamar kasuwancinmu tana tabbatar da nasara.
Tsarin Sayen Jari Daga Kasuwa
Daga 2003 zuwa 2013, IBM ta kashe fiye da $130 biliyan kan sayen hannun jari.
Sayar da hannun jari yana ƙara riba a cikin kowane rabo na kashi — wanda aka haɗa kai tsaye da albashin shugabanni. Wannan dabarar ta inganta sakamakon kwata-kwata yayin da abokan hamayya ke gina makomar.
A cikin wannan lokaci, AWS na koyo ta hanyar maimaitawa, yana zuba jari a cikin manyan kayan aiki, yana gina aminci ga masu haɓaka, da karɓar asarar farko don tsara sabon tsarin kwamfuta.
Samun Softlayer
IBM ta gane fasahar girgije a ƙarshe. A cikin 2013, sun sayi Softlayer — mai bayar da sabis na girgije na #2 bayan Amazon.
Amma maimakon saka hannun jari cikin karfin ci gaban Softlayer, IBM ta ci gaba da fifita sayen hannayen jari. Sun sayi dokin amma ba za su bar shi ya tashi ba.
Shekaru Goma da Aka Rasa
IBM ta shiga cikin abin da masu lura suka kira "shekaru goma da aka rasa" daga kusan 2012 zuwa 2020. Yayin da Amazon, Microsoft, da Google suka gina manyan dandamali na gajimare, IBM ta kara jinkirta.
A yau, AWS na samar da karin kudaden shiga na shekara fiye da dukkan kamfanin IBM. Azure na Microsoft ya zama jagoran gajimare na kasuwanci. Google Cloud na kara girma cikin sauri.
IBM ta kare tarihi. AWS ta gina makomar. Lokacin da IBM ta dauki gajimare da muhimmanci, kasuwar ta riga ta tafi.
10. Juyin Juya Hali na Wayar Hannu: Cikakken Rashin Wanzuwa (2007-Har Yanzu)
IBM ya rasa juyin juya hali na kwamfutar hannu gaba ɗaya. Babu wani muhimmin shahararren a cikin wayoyin salula. Babu tsarin kwamfutar hannu. Babu tsarin aiki na hannu.
Lokacin da Apple ta gabatar da iPhone a 2007, IBM ba ta bayar da wani martani ba. Lokacin da Android ta bayyana a matsayin babban dandamalin wayar hannu, IBM ba ta kasance cikin wasan ba.
Wannan yana da ban mamaki ga kamfani da ya taɓa bayyana kwamfutocin mutum. Kwamfutocin mutum mafi yawa daga cikin su — waɗanda mutane ke ɗauka a aljihunsu — an gina su gaba ɗaya ta wasu.
11. Watson don Oncology: Matsalar AI ta $62 Miliyan (2012-2017)
Alƙawarin Burin
A cikin 2012, IBM ta haɗu da MD Anderson Cancer Center a Houston tare da wani babban burin: amfani da Watson AI don taimakawa wajen kawar da cutar kansa.
An kira aikin da sunan Oncology Expert Advisor (OEA). Watson zai yi amfani da sarrafa harshe na halitta don taƙaita bayanan lafiyar marasa lafiya na lantarki, bincika bayanan likitanci, da bayar da shawarwari kan magani ga likitocin onkoloji.
Ya kamata ya nuna cewa Watson na iya sauya harkar kiwon lafiya.
Gaskiya
Shekaru biyar da $62 million bayan haka, MD Anderson ta bar kwangilar ta da IBM ta ƙare. An taɓa amfani da Watson a kan marasa lafiya a MD Anderson.
Me ya faru daidai?
Manyan ƙarin kuɗi
Kwanton asali: kawo samfurin MDS leukemia cikin watanni 6 a cikin kudin dindindin na $2.4 miliyan.
Gaskiyar ita ce: an tsawaita wannan kwangila 12 times, tare da jimillar kudade sun kai $39.2 miliyan. A dukkanin, MD Anderson ta kashe fiye da shekaru uku da $60 miliyan — yawancin wannan akan masu ba da shawara daga waje — kafin a daina wannan yunƙurin.
Iyakokin Fasaha
Watson an yi talla a matsayin "AI mai koyo da kansa" wanda ke ci gaba da nazarin sabbin bincike. A gaskiya, yana aiki a matsayin itacen yanke shawara bisa ka'idoji da aka sabunta da hannu.
Kowane sabuntawa yana buƙatar ƙwararrun mutane su shigar da sabbin ka'idoji cikin software ɗin hannu. Wannan ya haifar da cikas a aikin da ya hana dandamalin daga daidaita da saurin canzawa na ka'idojin kulawa.
Duk da ƙwarewar Watson a cikin sarrafa harshe na halitta, ba ta iya fassara bayanai kamar yadda likitoci na ɗan adam za su iya ba.
Damuwar Tsaro
A cikin 2017 da 2018, rahotannin bincike sun ambaci takardun cikin gida na IBM Watson Health da suka bayyana rashin daidaito na likitanci da haɗarin tsaro. Gabatarwar cikin gida ta amince cewa software ɗin yana bayar da "shawarwari na magani da ba su da tsaro kuma ba daidai ba".
Kuskuren Gudanarwa
Aikin ya rushe a cikin zargin kashe kudi fiye da kima, jinkiri, da rashin gudanarwa. Jagorancin aikin ya wuce hanyoyin gudanar da IT na yau da kullum da hanyoyin saye, yana tsara kwangilolin masu sayarwa a ƙasa da iyakokin kuɗi don guje wa kulawar masu mulki.
Sakamakon gudanarwa da kudi a ƙ ultimately ya haifar da saukar kujerar Shugaban MD Anderson, Dr. Ronald DePinho, a shekarar 2017.
Babban Matsala
IBM ta gaza wajen haɓaka Watson don kiwon lafiya saboda:
- Fannin ya yi girma sosai. Maimakon burin da za a iya cimmawa — kamar hasashen yiwuwar ciwon daji bisa ga alamomi — sun sa a gaba "kawo karshen ciwon daji" tare da wani tsarin AI.
- Ba su yi shi da sauƙi ba. Akwai hanyoyi masu sauƙi ga AI don magance matsalolin lafiya, amma IBM ta fi son haɓaka wani abu da ya yi kama da ban sha'awa maimakon gina mafita mai amfani.
Tsarin yana ci gaba
Watson for Oncology ya bayyana rashin daidaito mai mahimmanci tsakanin alkawuran tallace-tallacen IBM da gaskiyar iyawar AI. Sun yi alkawari fiye da yadda za su iya cika — wani tsarin da ya lalata amincin IBM a fannin AI.
A yau, OpenAI, Google, da wasu suna jagorantar ci gaban AI. Watson, duk da babban jarin farko na IBM, ba shi da muhimmiyar rawa.
12. Lotus Notes: Daga $3.5 Biliyan zuwa $1.8 Biliyan (1995-2018)
Samun
A cikin 1995, IBM ta sayi Lotus Development Corporation akan dala biliyan 3.5. Wannan shine mafi girman sayen da IBM ta yi a lokacin. An ga Lotus Notes a matsayin wata babbar dandamali ta haɗin gwiwa da za ta iya yin gasa da Microsoft.
A lokacin da ya kai kololuwa, Lotus Notes yana da kimanin aikace-aikace miliyan 10 suna gudana a kan dandamali.
Rashin Daidaito
Betsy Kosheff, wacce ta yi PR ga Lotus lokacin da aka sayar da ita ga IBM, daga bisani ta lura: "IBM ba ta da kasuwanci na yin sabbin fasahohi na software. Wannan batu yana da bayyana sosai tun daga lokacin sayen. Ba laifin su ba ne — IBM ba a tsara ta haka ba."
Lokacin da aka sayar da Lotus ga IBM, suna cikin gwagwarmaya kai tsaye da Microsoft Exchange. Amma Microsoft tana da muhimman fa'idodi: suna da mallakar tsarin aiki kuma suna da kaso mafi yawa a kasuwa tare da aikace-aikacen Office.
IBM ta yi niyyar cewa Lotus Notes zai sayar da karin kayan aiki. Ba su taba tuntubar al'ummar masu haɓaka, masu amfani, da ƙwararrun masu fitarwa da suka sa Notes ya yi nasara a cikin kamfanoni ba.
Raguwar Jinkirin
Daga cikin waɗannan aikace-aikacen miliyan 10 a lokacin kololuwa, shekaru bakwai na farko a ƙarƙashin IBM sun ga raguwar zuwa kusan miliyan 2 — mafi yawansu ta hanyar raguwa da sauƙin canje-canje zuwa Microsoft SharePoint.
Daya daga cikin "amfanin" musamman na Lotus Notes ya zama matsalarsa: sabar da abokan ciniki suna gudana ba tare da kulawa ba tsawon shekaru. Abokan ciniki sun daina biyan IBM don sabuntawa da goyon baya. Mafi yawansu kuma sun dakatar da ci gaban aikace-aikacen Notes, wanda ya sa kudaden da suka danganci IBM Global Services da IBM Partners suka bushe.
Sayarwa
A watan Disamba na shekarar 2018, IBM ta sayar da Notes/Domino da wasu kayayyakin software da dama ga HCL Technologies akan dala biliyan 1.8.
IBM ta kashe dala biliyan 3.5 don sayen Lotus. Shekaru ashirin da uku bayan haka, sun sayar da ragowar kimanin rabin wannan adadin — ba tare da daidaita farashin kayayyaki ba.
Sayen ya kasance wani ɓangare na bukatar kuɗi ta IBM: sun sanar da sayen Red Hat na dala biliyan 34. Amma hakan ya nuna ƙarshen ƙoƙarin IBM na yin gasa a cikin software na haɗin gwiwa.
13. Sayar Lenovo: Fita daga Kasuwar da IBM Ta Kirkira (2005)
A cikin 2005, IBM ta sayar da dukkan sashen PC ɗinta ga Lenovo akan $1.75 biliyan.
Kamfanin da ya kaddamar da IBM PC a 1981 — na'urar da ta tabbatar da amfani da kwamfutoci na kashin kai don kasuwanci — ba ya ƙara yin kwamfutoci na kashin kai.
IBM ta bayyana dalilin sayar da cewa kasuwar PC ta zama mai matuƙar kasuwanci tare da raguwa a cikin ribar da ake samu. Za su mai da hankali kan software da ayyuka masu riba mai yawa.
Wannan ya kasance mai ma'ana. Amma hakan kuma yana nufin amincewa da cikakken rashin nasara. IBM ta kirkiro da ka'idar masana'antar PC. Sun ba da damar ga masu yin kwafi tare da tsarin bude. Sun ba Microsoft hakkin tsarin aiki. Kuma yanzu suna barin masana'antar gaba daya.
Tsarin: Me ya sa suka ci gaba da yin kuskure iri ɗaya?
Abubuwan da ke Faruwa Akai-Akai
A cikin shekaru 80 da yanke shawara guda 12+ manya, irin wannan tsarin yana bayyana:
Karami sosai don ya zama da mahimmanci
Xerography an ƙi saboda takardar carbon tana aiki. An ƙi minicomputers saboda mainframes suna "aikin lissafi mai tsanani." An ƙi kwamfutocin mutum saboda suna "kanana sosai." An ƙi gajimare saboda kamfanoni "ba za su yarda da Amazon ba."
Kare Kudaden Shiga da Ake da Su
IBM koyaushe yana inganta don kare layukan kasuwanci na yanzu maimakon cinye su da sabbin fasahohi. Kudaden shiga na mainframe sun hana mayar da hankali kan minicomputer. Sayar da kayan aiki sun hana mayar da hankali kan software. Kwantiragin ayyuka sun hana zuba jari a cikin gajimare.
Shiga daga baya, rasa ga masu motsi na farko
Minicomputer na IBM ya zo shekaru 19 bayan DEC. Tura gajimare na IBM ya zo shekaru goma bayan AWS. A lokacin da IBM ta dauki sabbin fasahohi da muhimmanci, masu fafatawa masu sauri sun kafa matsayi mai karfi.
Ingantaccen Tsari na Gajeren Lokaci Akan Matsayi na Dogon Lokaci
Yarjejeniyar DOS ta inganta don sauri (jirgin ruwa cikin watanni 12) a farashin ikon dogon lokaci. Sayen hannun jari an inganta don EPS na kowane kwata a farashin zuba jari a cikin gajimare. Kowace shawara ta kasance mai ma'ana a cikin gida amma mai hadari a dabaru.
Ra'ayoyin Hankali
Wannan tsarin yana nuna ra'ayoyin tunani da aka rubuta sosai:
- Son kai na matsayin yanzu: Takardar carbon tana aiki. Manyan kwamfutoci suna aiki. Tsarin kasuwancinmu na yanzu yana aiki. Me ya sa a canza?
- Rashin amincewa da gaskiya: Neman shaidar cewa sabbin fasahohi ba za su yi tasiri ba yayin da ake watsi da alamun cewa za su yi.
- Kalubalen masu kirkira: Kamfanoni masu nasara ba za su iya juyawa kansu ba saboda yin hakan na barazanar hanyoyin samun kudaden shiga da suke akwai.
- Tsayawa: Hanyar tunanin IBM a matsayin kamfanin mainframe ta tsayu a cikin tunaninsu ko da fasahar kwamfuta ta ci gaba.
Abubuwan Tsarin Ƙungiya
Bayan son kai na mutum, tsarin IBM ya sa wadannan kuskuren su zama masu yiwuwa fiye da haka:
- Jinkirin gudanarwa: Manyan kungiyoyi suna motsi a hankali. Lokacin kammala PC na watanni 12 ya kasance na musamman saboda IBM yawanci yana ɗaukar shekaru.
- Rarrabuwar sassa: Sassan sun yi gasa da juna maimakon hadin gwiwa kan sabbin damammaki.
- Kin karɓar haɗari: Al'ada da ta hukunta gazawa fiye da yadda ta ƙara lada ga jarin da aka yi da ƙarfin gwiwa.
- Tsarin diyya: Masu gudanarwa suna samun lada bisa ga EPS na kowane kwata (wanda aka karfafa ta hanyar sayen hannayen jari) maimakon matsayin kasuwa na dogon lokaci.
Farashin: Wani Hangen Nesa
Kasuwannin yau suna ba da labari:
| Kamfani | Kasuwar Kudi | Rawar IBM |
|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | ~$2.9 tiriliyan | IBM ta ba su hakkin DOS |
| Apple | ~$3.0+ tiriliyan | IBM ta ƙi kwamfutocin mutum. |
| Amazon | ~$2.0+ tiriliyan | IBM ta rasa damar cikin kwamfuta mai gajeren hazo. |
| Alphabet (Google) | ~$2.0+ tiriliyan | IBM ta rasa bincike da gajimare |
| Intel | ~$150 biliyan | IBM ba ta sami hakkin mallakar chips ba. |
| IBM | ~$200 biliyan | — |
Hadakar, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, da Alphabet suna da darajar fiye da $10 trillion. IBM — kamfanin da shawarwarinsa suka ba da damar ko suka gaza hana wadannan 'yan takara — yana da darajar kusan 2% na wannan.
Darussan: Yadda Ƙungiyoyi Zasu Guji Tsarin IBM
Tarihin IBM ba kawai labarin gargadi ba ne — yana da tsarin yanke shawara. Ga abin da kungiyoyi za su iya koya:
Rubuta "Kananan" Kwatancen Kora
Idan wani ya ce sabuwar fasaha "karami ne sosai don ya zama mai mahimmanci" ko "ba mai tsanani ba ne," wannan alama ce ta bincika, ba ta watsi da ita ba. Kirkiri wani takardun hukuma na abin da aka watsi da shi da dalilin da ya sa. Duba wadannan takardu a kowace shekara.
Raba Kimantawa daga Kare wanda ke kan mukami
Ka yi nazarin sabbin fasahohi ta ƙungiyoyi da ba su da ƙarin fa'idodi don kare hanyoyin samun kuɗi na yanzu. Rukunin babban kwamfuta ba zai taɓa goyon bayan ƙananan kwamfutoci ba.
Tambaya Kan Ingantaccen Tsawon Lokaci
An tsara yarjejeniyar DOS don lokacin kammala na watanni 12. An tsara sayen hannayen jari don EPS na kowane kwata. Kowanne yana da ma'ana a cikin kansa amma ya sadaukar da matsayin dabaru. Tambaya: "Wane matsayi na dogon lokaci muke musanya don wannan riba ta gajeren lokaci?"
Bi Hanyoyin Yanke Shawara, Ba Kawai Sakamako Ba
Tsarin IBM ya kasance mai daidaito a cikin shekaru 80. Idan sun yi nazarin tsarin yanke shawara nasu maimakon kawai sakamakon mutum, suna iya gane yanayin gazawa da ke maimaituwa.
Gina Tarihin Kurakurai na Cibiyoyi
Shin shugabannin IBM na shekarun 1980 sun san game da kin amincewa da xerography na 1944? Shin shugabannin shekarun 2010 sun yi nazari kan rashin nasarar minicomputer na shekarun 1970? Kungiyoyi da ba su koyi daga kurakuran yanke shawara na baya ba, suna cikin hukuncin maimaita su.
Tsarin yana ci gaba
A matsayin 2026, IBM na ƙoƙarin wani juyawa — wannan karon zuwa AI da kwamfuta ta gajimare ta hanyar sayen kamfanoni kamar Red Hat.
Shall this time be different?
Kamfanin yana da sabbin shugabanni da sabbin manufofin dabaru. Amma har yanzu yana da irin wannan tsarin ƙungiya da ya haifar da tsarin da muka bi a cikin shekaru 80.
Darasin ba shine cewa IBM ta kasance da kuskure na musamman ba. Darasin shine cewa son zuciya da tsarin gudanarwa da suka jawo gazawar IBM suna cikin kowace babbar kungiya. Son zuciya na ci gaba. Son zuciya na tabbatarwa. Kare kudaden shiga. Ingantawa na gajeren lokaci. Jinkirin gudanarwa.
Tambayar kowace ƙungiya ba "Shin mu IBM ne?" Tambayar ita ce: "Menene muke watsi da shi a yanzu saboda yana bayyana ƙanana don ya zama mai mahimmanci?"
Saboda a wani wuri, a cikin dakin girki ko garaji ko dakin kwana, wani na gina fasahar gaba ta gaba da za a yi watsi da ita a matsayin "ba lissafi mai kyau ba."
Kuma shekaru 30 daga yanzu, za mu rika ba da labarin yadda wata kamfani mai karfi ta rasa wannan.
Hanyoyin Koyo & Karatu na Ƙari
Tarihin Xerography
Kamfanin Kayan Kwamfuta na Dijital & Minicomputers
Yarjejeniyar DOS & Microsoft
IBM PC & Aikin Kere-Kere
Watson don Oncology
Raguwar IBM da Kuskuren Damammaki
Tambayoyi da ake yawan yi
Shin IBM ta yi hakikanin kin karɓar xerography saboda takardar carbon?
Eh. Tsakanin 1939 da 1944, IBM ta kasance daya daga cikin fiye da kamfanoni 20 da suka ki karɓar ƙirƙirar xerography na Chester Carlson. An ce IBM ta ƙi fasahar saboda an ga takardar carbon a matsayin madadin mai arha. A watan Maris na 1941, daraktan binciken kasuwa na IBM ya nemi a nuna misali, amma Carlson ba zai iya samar da samfurin aiki ba. Kamfanin Haloid a ƙarshe ya ba da lasisi ga fasahar a 1947 kuma ya zama Xerox.
Nawa ne IBM ta biya Microsoft don yarjejeniyar DOS?
Farashin kai tsaye ya kasance kadan — IBM ta biya kusan $50,000 don DOS. Farashin dabaru ya kasance mai muni. Ta hanyar sanya hannu kan lasisin da ba na musamman ba, IBM ta ba Microsoft damar sayar da MS-DOS ga duk masu kera PC clone. Wannan tanadin guda ya ba Microsoft damar zama kamfani mai darajar $2.9 trillion yayin da IBM ta fice daga kasuwancin PC gaba ɗaya, tana sayarwa Lenovo a 2005 don $1.75 billion.
Me ya faru da Gary Kildall da CP/M?
Labari yana da bayanai masu sabani. Sigogin IBM: Gary Kildall yana cikin jirgin sama lokacin da IBM ta iso, kuma matarsa ta ki sanya hannu kan NDA. Sigogin Kildall: Ya dawo ranar da yamma, ya sanya hannu kan NDA, kuma ya cimma yarjejeniya ta hannu. Babban batun shine Kildall yana son hakkin mallaka (IBM tana son kudin duka) kuma CP/M-86 ba za a iya isar da shi a kan lokacin IBM ba. Bayan tattaunawar ta gaza, Microsoft ta shiga tare da QDOS.
Me ya sa IBM ta yi amfani da sassan da aka riga aka kera don PC?
Matsin lokaci. Shugaban IBM Frank Cary ya ba ƙungiyar watanni 12 kawai don fitar da kwamfutar tafi-da-gidanka. Gina chips na musamman da tsarin mallaka zai ɗauki shekaru. Amfani da chip na 8088 na Intel da wallafa takardun bayani na bude ya ba da damar ci gaban sauri amma ya ba da damar masu fafatawa su gina "kwafi masu dacewa da IBM."
Me ya faru da Watson for Oncology?
IBM ta haɗu da MD Anderson Cancer Center a shekarar 2012, tana alkawarin cewa Watson zai taimaka "wanke cutar kansa." Bayan shekaru biyar da dala miliyan 62, an ajiye aikin. Matsalolin sun haɗa da: an tsawaita kwangilar asali ta watanni 6, dala miliyan 2.4 sau 12; Watson ya bayar da shawarwari na magani "marasa lafiya da kuskure"; ya yi aiki a matsayin tsarin dokoki da aka sabunta da hannu maimakon ainihin AI; kuma jagorancin aikin ya wuce hanyoyin gudanarwa.
Ta yaya IBM ta rasa fasahar girgije?
Lou Gerstner ya yi hasashen da ya dace cewa fasahar gajimare za ta bayyana makomar lokacin da ya bar IBM a 2002. Amma shugabancin IBM na gaba ya zaɓi kare hanyoyin samun kuɗi da suke akwai. Daga 2003-2013, IBM ta kashe fiye da dala biliyan 130 a kan sayen hannun jari maimakon gina tsarin gajimare. IBM ma ta sayi Softlayer (mai bayar da gajimare na #2) a 2013 amma ta ci gaba da fifita sayen hannun jari fiye da zuba jari. A yau, AWS na samar da karin kuɗi fiye da dukkan kamfanin IBM.
Menene darajar IBM a yau idan aka kwatanta da kamfanonin da ta taimaka wajen kirkira?
Kasuwar IBM tana da kimar kusan dala biliyan 200. Microsoft (wanda ya samu hakkin DOS daga IBM) yana da kimar dala tiriliyan 2.9. Apple (wanda IBM ta watsi da shi a shekarun 1970) ya wuce dala tiriliyan 3. Amazon (wanda ya mamaye gajimare yayin da IBM ta yi jinkiri) yana da fiye da dala tiriliyan 2. Google (wanda ya lashe bincike yayin da IBM ta mai da hankali a wani wuri) yana da fiye da dala tiriliyan 2. Jimlar, wadannan kamfanoni hudu suna da kimar fiye da dala tiriliyan 10 — kusan sau 50 na kimar IBM.
Wane ra'ayi na tunani ne ya jagoranci yanke shawarar IBM?
An bayyana wasu son zuciya da aka rubuta da yawa: Son zuciya na matsayin yanzu (takardar carbon tana aiki, manyan kwamfutoci suna aiki — me ya sa a canza?); Son zuciya na tabbatarwa (nema hujja cewa sabbin fasahohi ba za su yi tasiri ba); Kafawa (aikin IBM a matsayin kamfanin manyan kwamfutoci ya takaita tunaninsu); da kuma Matsalar Masani (kamfanoni masu nasara ba za su iya tayar da kansu ba saboda yin hakan na barazanar kudaden shigar da suke da su).
Argumentree Team
Decision Analysis
The Argumentree team analyzes decision-making patterns across organizations. This post examines IBM's historical decisions as a case study in institutional decision-making failures.
The Question for Your Organization
IBM's pattern isn't unique. Status quo bias, revenue protection, and short-term optimization exist in every organization. The question isn't "Are we IBM?" The question is: "What are we dismissing right now because it seems too small to matter?"
Kada ku maimaita tsarin IBM
Shawarar da ƙungiyarku ke yanke a yau tana zama matsayin gasa na gobe. Rubuta su tare da tsari na takardun yanke shawara — kafin "kanana don su zama da mahimmanci" su zama nadama na triliyan daloli.
Fara Rubuta ShawarwariLittattafan da suka shafi wannan
Hukuncin Jeff Bezos na 3 a Rana: Hanyar Warren Buffett a Bayan Amazon
Babban jami'in gudanarwa ya kamata ya yanke kimanin kyawawan hukunci guda uku a kowace rana. Haka kawai. Kare karfin safiyarka, rubuta hukuncin da zuciyarka ta yanke, kuma gina wani tsarin tunawa na hukumar.
Teburin Shawara: Yadda Ake Yanke Shawarwar Kasuwanci Gaskiya
Daga NPV zuwa ka'idar fata, daga zaɓuɓɓukan gaske zuwa son zuciya — cikakken tsarin fahimtar yadda yanke shawarar dabaru ke aiki.