Ka'idar Hasashe: Me Yasa Kungiyarku Ke Tsoron Rashin Nasara Sau Biyu Fiye da Yadda Take Daraja Nasarori
Ka'idar tsammani ita ce bayanin Daniel Kahneman da Amos Tversky na shekarar 1979 kan yadda mutane ke yanke shawara a ƙarƙashin haɗari, wanda aka buga a Econometrica kuma yana da matuƙar muhimmanci ga aikin da Kahneman ya samu kyautar Nobel ta 2002 a fannin Kimiyyar Tattalin Arziki (Tversky ya rasu a 1996 kuma ba zai iya raba ta ba). Babban sakamakon sa: mutane suna kimanta sakamako a matsayin riba da asara dangane da wani maki na tunani, ba a matsayin ƙarshe ba; asara tana bayyana kusan sau biyu fiye da ribar da ta dace (ƙin asara); mutane yawanci suna guje wa haɗari don ribar amma suna neman haɗari lokacin da suke fuskantar asara tabbatacce; kuma tsarin zaɓi yana canza zaɓin — a cikin gwajin cutar Asiya na Tversky da Kahneman na 1981, kashi 72 cikin 100 sun zaɓi shirin lafiya a ƙarƙashin tsarin adana rayuka yayin da kashi 78 cikin 100 sun zaɓi caca a ƙarƙashin tsarin asarar rayuka, don sakamako iri ɗaya. A cikin kasuwanci, wannan yana bayyana a matsayin maimaita jari a kan ayyukan da ke fuskantar gazawa don guje wa gane asara tabbatacce, tasirin halin jari a cikin zuba jari (sayar da masu nasara, riƙe masu asara — wanda Terrance Odean ya tabbatar a 1998), da tasirin mallaka a cikin tattaunawa. Binciken daga baya, musamman Gal da Rucker (2018), yana ƙin yarda da yadda ƙin asara yake zama na duniya — girman yana bambanta da ƙima da mahallin — amma dogaro da tunani da tasirin tsarin suna ci gaba da kasancewa masu ƙarfi. Karewar aikace-aikace ita ce juyin tsarin: bayyana kowanne muhimmin shawarwari a cikin tsarin ribar sa da tsarin asarar sa kafin yanke shawara, kuma a bayyana duka tsarin a matsayin hujjoji masu gasa don a bayyana rashin daidaito maimakon a yi amfani da shi.
A cikin 1981, Tversky da Kahneman sun nuna cewa canza matsalar rayuwa da mutuwa daga fuskantar rayuka da aka ceci zuwa fuskantar rayuka da aka rasa ya juyar da zaɓin mafi yawa — kashi 72 cikin 100 sun zaɓi zaɓin lafiya a cikin ɗaya daga cikin fuskokin, kashi 78 cikin 100 sun zaɓi haɗarin a cikin ɗayan. Lambobi guda ɗaya, yanke shawara masu sabani. Ka'idar tsammanin tana bayyana dalilin: muna yanke shawara dangane da wuraren tunani, kuma rasa yana bayyana kusan sau biyu fiye da samun. Taron kasafin kuɗinku yana gudana bisa wannan ilimin.
- Ka'idar wuraren tunani — ba ma kimanta sakamako; muna kimanta canje-canje daga inda muke tunanin muna tsaye
- Asarar ≈ 2× riba — wanda shine dalilin da yasa asarar da aka tabbatar ana yin caca akanta da kuma ayyukan da suka gaza ana kara juyawa akansu
- Tsarin yana da shigar da shawara — duk wanda ya bayyana matsalar ya riga ya tsara amsar
- Tsaron shine juyin fuskoki — bayyana kowanne shawarwari a cikin duka fuskoki kafin yanke shawara, kuma a rubuta duka a cikin rajista
Tsara mafi kyau, ingancin yanke shawara mafi kyau: guda biyar da suka haɗa kan hukunci, zaɓi, da kalubalantar kayan aikin da ke bayan manyan yanke shawara.
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Gwada Shi a Kanka: Gwajin da ke Juya abubuwa
Ana sa ran barkewar cuta za ta kashe mutane 600, kuma dole ne ka zaɓi tsakanin shirye-shiryen amsa guda biyu. Shirin A yana ceton mutane 200 da tabbatacce. Shirin B yana ba da damar ɗaya cikin uku cewa dukkan mutane 600 za a ceci su da kuma damar biyu cikin uku cewa ba wanda za a ceci. Zaɓi ɗaya — ainihin zaɓi — kafin ka ci gaba da karantawa.
A cikin gwajin Tversky da Kahneman na 1981, wanda aka buga a Science, kashi 72 cikin 100 sun zaɓi Shirin A. Ajiye tabbatacce yana jin alhakin. Amma wata ƙungiya ta ga wannan matsalar a cikin wani salo daban: Shirin C yana nufin mutane 400 za su mutu tabbatacce; Shirin D yana ba da damar kashi ɗaya cikin uku cewa babu wanda ya mutu da kuma kashi biyu cikin uku cewa dukkan mutane 600 za su mutu. Idan aka fuskanci wannan kalmar, kashi 78 cikin 100 sun zaɓi D — caca. Duba sosai: A da C suna da shirin iri ɗaya. B da D suna da shirin iri ɗaya. Sakamakon ba su taɓa canzawa ba. Kalmar ta canza, kuma mafi yawan sun juya.
Idan dakin cike da mutane na iya juyawa zaɓin rayuwa da mutuwa saboda wani ya canza 'ceto' da 'mutuwa,' yi la'akari da abin da ke faruwa a taron shirin ku — inda kowanne shawarwari ke zuwa tare da tsarin da wanda ya rubuta shafin ya kafa. Wannan juyin ba wani abu ne na ban sha'awa ba. Shi ne sa hannun na injin da ra'ayin yiwuwar ke bayyana, kuma wannan injin yana aiki a kowanne hukunci da ƙungiyarku ke yi game da kuɗi, ayyuka, da haɗari.
Takardar da ta karya Tattalin Arziki na Hankali
A cikin 1979, masu ilimin halayyar dan Adam biyu daga Isra'ila — Daniel Kahneman da Amos Tversky — sun wallafa Ka'idar Duba: Bincike kan Yanke Shawara a ƙarƙashin Hadari a cikin Econometrica, jaridar jagora ta wannan fannin da suke rushewa. Tattalin arziki ya ɗauka cewa mutane suna kimanta zaɓuɓɓuka ta hanyar sakamakon ƙarshe, wanda aka nauyi da yiwuwar faruwa. Kahneman da Tversky sun nuna, gwaji bayan gwaji, cewa mutane na gaske suna yin wani abu daban — kuma a cikin hanyar da za a iya hasashen, wanda ya sa ya zama ka'ida maimakon korafi.
Hanyoyi guda uku suna dauke da mafi yawan nauyi. Na farko, dogaro da tunani: muna kimanta sakamako a matsayin riba ko asara dangane da inda muke tunanin muna tsaye, ba a matsayin kammalallen yanayi ba. Kyautar 5,000 tana jin daban kwata-kwata dangane da ko ka yi tsammanin 3,000 ko 10,000. Na biyu, tsoron asara: asarar tana hurt kusan sau biyu fiye da yadda riba mai daidai take faranta mana rai — a cikin auna daga Tversky da Kahneman na baya, coefficient ya fito kusa da 2.25. Na uku, tasirin tunani: muna guje wa hadari lokacin da zaɓuɓɓuka suna bayyana a matsayin ribar, amma muna neman hadari lokacin da muke fuskantar asara tabbatacce — za mu yi caca don guje wa kulle cikin tabbataccen rashin nasara.
Aikin ya sake fasalin tattalin arziki zuwa abin da yanzu ake kira tattalin arzikin halayya. Kahneman ya karɓi kyautar Nobel ta tunawa da masu binciken kimiyyar tattalin arziki a shekarar 2002 saboda wannan; Tversky ya rasu a shekarar 1996, kuma dokokin Nobel ba su yarda da bayar da kyautar bayan rasuwa ba, don haka ba za a iya raba kyautar tare da mutumin da sunansa ke kan farko a takardar ba. Kahneman ya ɗauki yawancin jawabin Nobel ɗinsa yana ba shi yabo.
Inda Asymmetry ke Cizon a Kasuwanci
Ka'idar hangen nesa za ta kasance ba ta da amfani idan ta tsaya a dakin gwaje-gwaje. Ba ta tsaya ba. Hanyoyi guda uku suna samar da tsarin da za a iya ganowa, masu tsada a cikin yanke shawara na ƙungiya:
Kara jaddada kan ayyukan da suka gaza
Kashe wani aikin yana nufin canza asarar takarda zuwa asara mai tabbaci, wanda aka mallaka, wanda za a iya danganta — daidai yanayin da mutane ke zama masu neman hadari. Don haka, wannan yunƙurin da ke fama yana samun wani kwata, wani sake tsarawa, wani juyawa. Caca don guje wa asarar da aka tabbatar tana nuna tasirin madauwari a cikin shirin aikin.
Sayar da masu nasara, riƙe da masu rashin nasara
Nazarin Terrance Odean na shekarar 1998 na asusun dillalan kudi 10,000 ya tabbatar da tasirin rarrabawa: masu zuba jari suna gane ribar su cikin sauki fiye da asarar su. Kulle riba yana jin kamar nasara; kulle asara yana jin kamar amincewa da rashin nasara — don haka masu asara suna ci gaba da kasancewa a cikin fayil, suna yin kasa da kima.
Farashi mai yawa akan abin da muke da shi tuni
A cikin gwaje-gwajen Kahneman, Knetsch da Thaler na 1990, mutane da aka ba da kofin kofi sun nemi kusan sau biyu fiye da abin da masu saye za su biya don wannan kofin daidai. Tasirin kyauta yana damun kowanne tattaunawa kan rabuwa, kowanne ƙarshen samfur na gado, kowanne sake tsarawa da ke ɗaukar wani abu daga wani.
Matsayin yanzu a matsayin maki na tunani mara gani
Duk wani shawarwarin canji ana tsara shi a cikin shiru a matsayin asarar halin yanzu. Wannan yana ba da damar wanda ke kan mulki samun kusan biyu zuwa daya kafin a yi wani muhawara — wanda shine dalilin da yasa 'mun dade muna yin hakan' ke jin karfi fiye da yadda yake jayayya.
Shin an ƙaryata rashin son asara?
Kuna iya samun labaran. A cikin 2018, David Gal da Derek Rucker sun wallafa "Rashin Jin Zafi na Rashin Riba" a cikin Jaridar Ilimin Halayyar Masu Sayayya, suna jayayya cewa rashin jin zafi yana da karancin yaduwa fiye da yadda littattafan ke ikirarin — cewa don ƙananan abubuwa, asarar ba ta fi girma fiye da ribar ba, kuma wasu shahararrun misalai suna da wasu bayanai. Wannan suka yana da muhimmanci kuma wani ɓangare na gaskiya, kuma yin kama da akasin haka zai zama daidai irin tunanin da wannan rubutun ke magana akai.
Ga gaskiyar halin da ake ciki. Girman rashin jin dadin asara yana bambanta — tare da girman jari, yanayi, da yadda zaɓin yake fitowa; tsarin duniya na 2× yana da tsari sosai. Amma abubuwan da mai yanke shawara ke bukata sun tsaya da karfi: dogaro da tunani ba ya cikin muhawara mai tsanani, tasirin tsarin kamar juyin cutar Asiya suna maimaituwa, kuma tsarin halayen da ke sama — haɓaka, yanayi, mallaka — an rubuta su a cikin bayanan filin, ba kawai a cikin labarin gwaji ba. Kammalallen sakamakon yana wucewa cikin fafatawar ilimi: tsarin zaɓi yana da tasiri ga zaɓin, kuma tsarin da ba a kula da shi yana ba da fifiko ga duk wanda ya kafa su.
Tsaron: Juya Kowane Fure, Sannan Yi Tattaunawa Duka biyu
Ba za ka iya kashe injin ba — Kahneman kansa ya kasance mai ra'ayi mara kyau game da kawar da son zuciya daga mutane. Abin da za ka iya yi shine canza tsarin yanke shawara don a daina ganin tsarin a matsayin ba a gani ba. Kayan aikin yana da sauki sosai: kafin ka yanke shawara kan wani abu mai mahimmanci, sake bayyana shawarar a cikin akasin tsarin. 'Wannan hijira tana ceton sa'o'i 200 a kowanne kwata' ya zama 'ba hijira yana haifar da sa'o'i 200 a kowanne kwata.' 'Kashe aikin yana janye miliyan 2' ya zama 'ci gaba yana kashe miliyan 3 fiye da haka don samun damar dawo da daya cikin hudu.' Idan son zuciyar dakin ya canza tare da kalmomin, son zuciyar ba ta taba kasancewa game da abun ciki ba.
Wannan shine inda tsarin muhawara ke samun daraja. A cikin itacen muhawara, duka frames suna nan a matsayin takardun gasa masu bayyana tare da shaidar da aka haɗa - frame na samun riba da frame na asara suna zaune a gefe guda, kuma taswirar muhawara tana bayyana rashin daidaitonsu maimakon a yi amfani da shi. Kimantawa mai yawa tana bayyana lokacin da zaɓi ke fuskantar hukunci saboda jin kamar asara maimakon auna kamar haka. Kuma shigar da ba tare da suna ba yana da mahimmanci fiye da yadda yake bayyana: kariyar matsayin yanzu tana da ƙarfi lokacin da aka haɗa ta da mutumin da ke da matsayin yanzu. Wannan hanya ce ta gyara ga son zuciya wanda ba a iya gyara ta da sanin komai - wani karin misali na jigon a cikin zurfin bincikenmu na ingancin yanke shawara: inganta tsarin, kuma ingancin yana biyo baya.
Tambayar Gwaji
Menene ƙungiyarku ke ƙin kashewa a halin yanzu saboda dakatarwa zai canza asarar takarda zuwa ta gaske? Ka ambaci shi — sannan ka sake bayyana shawarar ci gaba a cikin tsarin asararta kuma ka ga ko hujjar ta wanzu.
Me za a yi da wannan
Juya fuskantar kafin kowanne babban hukunci
Fadi shawarar a matsayin riba da kuma asara. Idan zaɓin ya motsa, tsarin yana yanke shawara.
Bincika wanda ya saita ma'aunin.
Kasafin kudi da aka dogara da shekarar da ta gabata, manufofi da aka dogara da yanayin mai kyau, kwatancen da aka dogara da halin yanzu — kowanne jigo zaɓi ne wanda wani ya yi. Yi hakan da sanin kai.
Raba asarar daga wanda ya sha kashi.
Hankali yana cinye kan bayar da laifi. Binciken da ke hukunta tsarin yanke shawara maimakon bayar da laifi yana sa ya zama mai rahusa a dakatar da shi — wanda shine dukan hujja kan sakamakon.
Ka'idojin kashewa kafin a yi alkawari
Yanke shawarar sharuɗɗan barin aikin lokacin da aikin ya fara — yayin da har yanzu yana cikin zaɓin da aka tsara don samun riba — ba lokacin da dakatarwa ke nufin mallakar asara ba.
Saka duka firam biyu a cikin rikodin
Wani rikodin hukunci da ke adana fa'idar da asarar tsarin muhawara yana hana hukuncin na gaba samun wani makiyaya da ba a gani ba.
Lambobi Masu Daya, Shawarwari Masu Akasin Juna
Kashi saba'in da biyu cikin dari sun zaɓi ajiya mai tabbaci. Kashi tamanin da takwas cikin dari sun zaɓi caca. Irin wannan cuta, mutane 600, lissafi iri ɗaya — abu ɗaya kawai da ya canza shine hukuncin. Babban binciken Kahneman da Tversky ba ya taɓa kasancewa cewa mutane ba su da hankali; abin da ya kasance shine cewa rashin hankali yana da tsari, kuma ana iya tsara tsari a kusa da shi.
Kungiyarku ba za ta iya shawo kan rashin daidaito na biyu zuwa daya da ke aiki a ƙasa da sani ba. Zata iya sarrafa shi: juya hotunan, bayyana wuraren tunani, tattauna bangarorin biyu inda kowa zai iya ganinsu.
Kalmar ta canza, kuma mafi yawan mutane sun juya. Tabbatar cewa ba kawai kalmomi ne ke yanke shawara a gare ka.
Hanyoyin Koyo & Karin Karatu
Takardar kafa: dogaro da tunani, tsoron asara, da aikin ƙima
Gwajin cutar Asiya da juyin tsarin kashi 72/78 cikin dari
Bayanin Kahneman na shirin bincike, wanda ya haɗa da ka'idar tsammanin ga masu karatu na gaba ɗaya
Tasirin rarrabawa da aka rubuta a cikin asusun dillalan gaske 10,000
Gwaje-gwajen kofin kofi: masu mallakar suna neman kusan sau biyu daga abin da masu saye ke bayarwa
Matsakaicin karfin suka da aka buga: girman tsoron asara yana bambanta fiye da yadda labarin littafin ya amince.
Labari game da haɗin gwiwar Kahneman-Tversky kanta
Tambayoyi da ake yawan yi
Menene ka'idar fata a cikin kalmomi masu sauki?
Ka'idar tsammani ita ce bayanin Daniel Kahneman da Amos Tversky na shekarar 1979 kan yadda mutane ke yanke shawara a ƙarƙashin haɗari. Maimakon auna sakamakon ƙarshe, mutane suna kimanta zaɓuɓɓuka a matsayin riba ko asara daga wani maki na tunani; asara tana jawo zafi kusan sau biyu fiye da yadda ribar da ta dace ke jin daɗi; kuma mutane suna ɗaukar ƙananan haɗari don samun ribar amma suna ɗaukar ƙarin haɗari don guje wa asarar tabbatacce. Saboda wannan, yadda aka tsara zaɓi — tsarin sa — na iya canza shawarar kodayake sakamakon suna daidai.
Menene matsalar cutar Asiya?
Wannan shine gwajin tsari na gargajiya daga takardar kimiyya ta Tversky da Kahneman ta shekarar 1981. An yi tsammanin wata cuta za ta kashe mutane 600. Idan aka tsara a matsayin rayuka da aka ceci (a ceci 200 da tabbatacce vs. wani hadari), kashi 72 cikin 100 na masu gwajin sun zaɓi zaɓin tabbatacce. Idan aka tsara a matsayin rayuka da aka rasa (400 za su mutu da tabbatacce vs. wannan hadarin), kashi 78 cikin 100 sun zaɓi hadarin. Shirin yana daidai a lissafi a cikin dukkan tsarukan — kawai kalmomin sun canza, kuma zaɓin mafi yawa ya juya.
Shin Kahneman da Tversky sun sami kyautar Nobel duka biyu saboda ka'idar hasashen?
A'a. Daniel Kahneman ya karɓi kyautar Nobel ta tunawa da masu bincike a fannin kimiyyar tattalin arziki a shekarar 2002, galibi saboda shirin binciken da aka gina tare da Amos Tversky. Tversky ya rasu a shekarar 1996, kuma ba a ba da kyautar Nobel bayan rasuwa ba, don haka ba zai iya raba ta ba. Kahneman koyaushe ya ba da karramawa ga aikin a matsayin haɗin gwiwa — Tversky shine babban marubuci a takardar tsarin 1981 kuma co-marubuci na takardar ra'ayin hasashen 1979.
Menene rashin son asara, kuma shin gaskiya ne?
Rashin son asara shine gano cewa asarar tana da girma fiye da ribar da ta dace — auna Tversky da Kahneman na 1992 sun sanya rabo a kusa da 2.25. Ana tattauna ko yana da amfani a ko'ina: takardar Gal da Rucker ta 2018 mai taken Rashin Son Asara ta nuna cewa tasirin na iya raguwa ko ɓacewa ga ƙananan abubuwa kuma yana dogara da yanayi. Abin da ya kasance mai ƙarfi shine dogaro da tunani da tsarin: zaɓuɓɓuka suna canzawa lokacin da tsarin ya canza, kuma tsarin filin kamar tasirin juyawa da haɓaka don guje wa asarar tabbatacce an rubuta su sosai.
Yaya ra'ayin tsammanin ke shafar yanke shawarar kasuwanci?
Hanyoyi hudu suna maimaituwa: ƙungiyoyi suna ƙara zuba jari a cikin ayyukan da suka gaza saboda kashe ɗaya yana canza asarar takarda zuwa asara tabbatacce, mai alaƙa; masu zuba jari da manajoji suna sayar da nasarori yayin da suke riƙe da asarar (tasirin halin ɗabi'a, wanda Odean ya rubuta a 1998); ƙungiyoyi suna ƙimar abin da suke da shi a cikin yanke shawarar sayar da kadarori da ƙarewa (tasirin mallaka); kuma matsayin yanzu yana aiki a matsayin maki na tunani mara gani, yana tsara kowanne canji a matsayin asara kuma yana ba da fa'ida ga waɗanda ke cikin matsayin ba tare da hakki ba.
Menene fasahar juyin fure?
Kafin yanke hukunci akan wani abu mai mahimmanci, sake bayyana shawarwarin a cikin akasin sa: ajiyar kudi yana zama farashin da aka guje masa, rubutun rashi yana zama farashin ci gaba, samun sabuwar shiri yana zama asarar matsayin da ake ciki. Idan canjin ra'ayin dakin yana tare da kalmomin, tsarin — ba abun cikin ba — ne ke jagorantar zaɓin. Yin duka tsarin a fili, a matsayin hujjoji masu juna, yana canza son zuciya da ba a gani ba zuwa sabani da za a iya warwarewa.
Shin za ka iya horar da rashin son asara?
Debiasing na mutum yana da tarihin rashin kyau — Kahneman kansa ya kasance mai shakku cewa sanin kai kadai yana canza hali. Hanyoyin kariya masu inganci suna cikin matakin tsari: juya fuskoki a tsarin, sanya ka'idojin kisa kafin a kammala aikin yayin da har yanzu ana duba ribar, duba yanke shawara bisa ingancin tsari maimakon sakamakon don dakatarwa ya zama mai rahusa, da kuma amfani da tsarukan — kamar itatuwan hujja tare da fuskoki biyu da aka bayyana — wanda ke bayyana wuraren tunani maimakon barin su aiki a cikin shiru.
Argumentree Team
Decision Science
The Argumentree team explores the science of better decisions—from 18th-century mathematics to modern AI.
Jerin Karatun Kuskure
Ka'idar hangen nesa ita ce daya daga cikin manyan dalilan yanke shawara marasa kyau a cikin rukuni. Wadannan suna rufe sauran — da tsarin da ke yaki da su.
Me yasa hukuncin yanke shawara bisa ga sakamako (wanda ya faru) ke koya wa ƙungiyoyi koyarwar da ba daidai ba
Cascades, bubbles, da taron mutane — hanyoyin gazawa na matakin rukuni a kan son zuciya na mutum.
Gina mafi karfi hujja mai adawa kafin yanke shawara — dangin muhawara na juyin fuskantar
Sa a yi jayayya tsakanin kowanne daga cikin firam biyu.
Argumentree yana sanya ruwan amfanin da ruwan asara a gefe guda a matsayin hujjoji masu bayyana — an kimanta a fili, an kalubalanta bisa shaidar, kuma an adana a cikin tarihin yanke shawara.
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