The Steel Man: Why the Best Negotiators Argue Against Themselves First
Critical Thinking

The Steel Man: Why the Best Negotiators Argue Against Themselves First

AT
Argumentree Team
Strategic Communication
July 26, 2026
10 min read

Steelmanning: The Technique Used by Top Negotiators, Supreme Court Lawyers, and Warren Buffett

Steelmanning is the discipline of constructing the strongest possible version of an opposing argument before engaging with it—the deliberate opposite of strawmanning (attacking a weakened version). At the 2013 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Warren Buffett invited Doug Kass, a short-seller betting against Berkshire, on stage to make the strongest case against the company in front of 35,000 shareholders. The canonical protocol is Rapoport's rules, published by philosopher Daniel Dennett in Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking (2013): re-express your opponent's position so clearly and fairly that they say 'Thanks, I wish I'd thought of putting it that way'; list points of agreement; mention what you learned; only then rebut. Supreme Court advocates practice a form of steelmanning through moot courts. McKinsey documents red-team/blue-team exercises to pressure-test conclusions. Amazon's 6-pager memo format includes a section on risks and what could go wrong. The research: Schweiger, Sandberg and Ragan (Academy of Management Journal, 1986) found devil's advocacy and dialectical inquiry produced higher-quality recommendations than consensus approaches. Mitchell, Russo and Pennington (1989) found prospective hindsight—imagining a decision has already failed—improves identification of the reasons for the outcome by roughly 30%, the empirical root of Gary Klein's pre-mortem. Important caveat from Charlan Nemeth's research (2001): assigned, performative devil's advocacy tends to produce cognitive bolstering of the original view; authentic dissent outperforms role-play. Steelmanning works when it is genuine evidence-seeking, not theater. The 3 steps: state the opposing position in its strongest form, find the strongest evidence for it, and only then engage with counter-arguments.

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TL;DR

In May 2013, Warren Buffett invited a short-seller who was betting against Berkshire Hathaway on stage at his own annual meeting—to make the strongest possible case against him. That is steelmanning: building the best version of the opposing argument before you engage it. It is the deliberate opposite of strawmanning, and the most underused decision discipline in business.

  • Steelman vs. strawman — engage the strongest version of the opposing case, not the weakest
  • Rapoport's rules — the canonical 4-step protocol, via philosopher Daniel Dennett
  • Real evidence — structured dissent beat consensus on decision quality (Academy of Management Journal, 1986)
  • The catch — performed devil's advocacy backfires; steelmanning only works when the effort is genuine

The Bear at Buffett's Own Meeting

In May 2013, Warren Buffett did something almost no executive does. He invited Doug Kass—a short-seller with an active bet against Berkshire Hathaway—on stage at Berkshire's own annual meeting, in front of tens of thousands of shareholders, to make the strongest case he could against the company. Buffett reportedly encouraged him to bring tough questions and, jokingly, to see if he could drive the stock down.

Buffett didn't do this for entertainment. He did it because an argument that has only ever been tested against weak opposition is an argument you don't actually know the strength of. Inviting your most credentialed critic to do their worst is the purest form of a discipline with a name:

Steelmanning. And before you file it under debate-club vocabulary: think about the last major proposal your team approved. Who was assigned to defeat it? If the answer is "nobody, but we discussed concerns," this post is about the gap between those two things.

What Steelmanning Actually Is

Steelmanning is the discipline of constructing the strongest possible version of an opposing argument before engaging with it. Not the version your opponent stated. The best version—the one they would have stated if they'd had more time to think, better evidence, and no rhetorical pressures. The version that, if true, would actually defeat your position.

The philosophical foundation is the principle of charity: interpret opposing arguments in their most favorable, most reasonable form. Assume the other person has good reasons for their position. Engage with what they mean rather than precisely what they said. Find the evidence they could have cited that they didn't.

The Psychological Difficulty

Steelmanning is psychologically hard because it feels like losing. When you articulate the strongest version of the case against your own position, you trigger the same discomfort as actual defeat. High-performing executives who have built careers on being right find this particularly difficult. The practice requires internalizing a counterintuitive belief: finding the strongest case against your position and surviving it makes your position stronger, not weaker.

The Canonical Protocol: Rapoport's Rules

Steelmanning has a canonical written protocol. The philosopher Daniel Dennett, in Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking (2013), codified four rules for criticizing an opponent's position, which he credits to the game theorist Anatol Rapoport:

1

Re-express their position—better than they did

"You should attempt to re-express your target's position so clearly, vividly, and fairly that your target says, 'Thanks, I wish I'd thought of putting it that way.'"

2

List the points of agreement

"You should list any points of agreement (especially if they are not matters of general or widespread agreement)."

3

Say what you learned

"You should mention anything you have learned from your target."

4

Only then, rebut

"Only then are you permitted to say so much as a word of rebuttal or criticism."

Notice what the rules do: they make rebuttal a privilege you earn by demonstrating comprehension. The first rule is the steelman itself—if your opponent wouldn't sign off on your restatement of their case, you haven't understood it yet, and any attack you launch is aimed at a target of your own construction.

The Strawman Epidemic

In February 2013, Yahoo ended remote work for its employees. The memo—sent by HR head Jackie Reses and immediately leaked—argued that "speed and quality are often sacrificed when we work from home" and pointed to the value of hallway and cafeteria discussions. The public debate that followed was a masterclass in strawmanning on both sides.

Attacks on CEO Marissa Mayer ran along the lines of "she thinks people who work from home are lazy." Attacks on the critics ran along the lines of "they just want to avoid accountability." Neither is what either side actually argued.

The steelman for Yahoo's position: remote work severs the informal communication channels that enable rapid iteration, and Yahoo was a company in crisis that believed it needed serendipitous collision more than employee convenience. The steelman for the critics: if the turnaround strategy required innovation, eliminating flexibility would drive out exactly the high-performers with market options who chose Yahoo partly for it.

Both steelman cases are substantive and mutually illuminating. Neither dominated the debate. That is the strawman epidemic: in business as in politics, we systematically attack weakened versions of opposing positions because it's easier and feels like winning.

How the Pros Use It

Supreme Court Advocates: Moot Courts

Oral argument before the Supreme Court is the highest-stakes intellectual performance in American law, and advocates prepare for it with moot courts—practice sessions where colleagues, law professors, and former clerks play hostile justices and construct the most devastating available arguments against the advocate's position. The standard advice in advocacy training, including David C. Frederick's treatise Supreme Court and Appellate Advocacy, is to find the weaknesses in your own case before the justices do—because they will.

McKinsey: Red Teams and Blue Teams

McKinsey's published problem-solving guidance describes red-team/blue-team exercises: convening one group that is invested in the recommendation and another of impartial colleagues whose job is to pressure-test it before it reaches the client. The point is not politeness review—it is giving the strongest counterarguments a formal seat at the table while there is still time to act on them.

Amazon: Risk Sections and "Disagree and Commit"

Amazon's famous 6-pager memo format bakes the opposing case into the proposal itself: the narrative includes what could go wrong, which assumptions are load-bearing, and what the competition's response might be—so the counterarguments are on the table in writing before discussion begins. The surrounding culture supplies the other half: objections must be raised fully and explicitly before the decision, then everyone executes. We cover the full protocol in how McKinsey, Bridgewater, and Amazon turn disagreement into decisions.

Bridgewater: Seeking the Strongest Critics

Ray Dalio's core prescription in Principles is to find the most believable people who disagree with you and try to understand their reasoning—institutionalized at Bridgewater through recorded meetings and credibility-weighted debate. The firm's stress-testing culture had a famous outing: in 2008, while the S&P 500 fell roughly 37%, Bridgewater's Pure Alpha fund returned roughly +9%.

What the Research Actually Shows

Steelmanning's business case doesn't rest on anecdotes. Three findings matter:

Structured dissent beats consensus

Schweiger, Sandberg and Ragan compared devil's advocacy, dialectical inquiry, and consensus in strategic decision-making. Both structured-dissent methods produced higher-quality recommendations and assumptions than consensus—though consensus groups reported higher satisfaction. Better decisions, less comfort.

Academy of Management Journal, 1986

Prospective hindsight: ~30%

Imagining that a decision has already failed—then explaining why—improved people's ability to correctly identify reasons for the outcome by roughly 30% versus standard forward-looking analysis. This finding is the empirical root of the pre-mortem technique Gary Klein later popularized.

Mitchell, Russo & Pennington, 1989; Klein, HBR 2007

Minority dissent widens thinking

Charlan Nemeth's research program found that exposure to genuine minority viewpoints leads groups to search for more information, use more strategies, and find more correct solutions than majority-only exposure.

Nemeth, UC Berkeley

But Doesn't the Research Also Say Devil's Advocacy Fails?

If you've read the group-dynamics literature, you have a legitimate objection ready: Charlan Nemeth's experiments found that an assigned devil's advocate—someone performing disagreement as a role—often doesn't improve thinking at all. Worse, it can produce cognitive bolstering: the group, having ritually survived the objection, becomes more confident in its original view, not less.

That finding is real, and it draws the line that matters. What fails is disagreement as theater. What works is authentic dissent—and steelmanning as defined here is not role-play, because step two requires actually going and finding the strongest evidence for the opposing view. You cannot fake research you are holding in your hand. This is also why Steve Jobs fired board members who never disagreed with him: he wasn't staffing a debate performance, he was buying genuine opposition.

The practical rule: never assign steelmanning as an attitude ("play devil's advocate for a minute"). Assign it as a deliverable ("bring the strongest documented case against this by Thursday"). The first produces bolstering. The second produces evidence.

The 3 Steelmanning Steps

Steelmanning is a learnable skill. Here's the framework:

1

State the opposing position in its strongest form

Not the version your opponent stated. The version they would have stated with more time, better evidence, and no social pressures. Ask: "If this position is correct, what would be the strongest evidence for it?" You should be able to state the opposing position better than its advocates do—Rapoport's first rule.

2

Find the strongest evidence for that position

Research the strongest empirical support for the opposing view. What data would a rigorous, intelligent person cite? What historical examples support it? This is the step most people skip—and skipping it is the difference between a genuine steelman and a performance of steelmanning.

3

Only then, engage with your counter-arguments

Where does your position have genuine advantages over this steelmanned version? Where is the opposing position actually right, so that yours needs revision? Your final position should directly address the steelmanned argument—not a weakened version of it.

Steelmanning in Product Decisions

Product decisions are where steelmanning pays fastest, because roadmaps are uniquely vulnerable to confirmation bias: teams build features that confirm existing beliefs about what users want rather than challenging them. Four exercises make the opposing case concrete before resources are committed:

The "Why This Fails" Document

Before every significant feature commitment, a small team writes a 1-2 page document making the strongest case that the feature will fail. Not why it might fail—why it will. Presented before the feature proposal, not after.

The "Strongest Competitor Response"

Not "competitors might copy us" but the most credible, detailed account of how the smartest competitor would respond to this move, and why that response would neutralize the advantage.

The "User Rejection" Scenario

The most rigorous account of the behavior patterns, mental models, or workflow constraints that would make adoption fail even among initially enthusiastic users.

The Survivorship Test

For any success story you're drawing inspiration from, build the steelman case for why your situation is structurally different from the one that succeeded—and why those differences matter.

How Argumentree Structures Steelmanning

The reason steelmanning is rare in organizations is structural, not motivational. Teams have no formal mechanism that requires building the opposing case. The default decision process—"propose, discuss, decide"—has no built-in steelmanning step.

Argumentree's argument tree structure changes this by design. Every decision tree captures pro arguments and con arguments with equal formality and rigor. The tree isn't complete until both sides are documented—not as a policy, but as a structural feature of the tool. And because the con side must be documented rather than performed, it sidesteps the role-play trap Nemeth identified: the tree demands evidence, not attitude.

Steelmanning as Institutional Practice

The most powerful form of steelmanning isn't an individual technique—it's an organizational practice. When every significant decision has a documented opposing case and a documented response to it, you build institutional intellectual honesty. New team members inherit not just the decisions but the quality of reasoning behind them. And when circumstances change, you can revisit both the decision and the steelman to see whether the original reasoning still holds.

Try It in Your Next Meeting

You don't need to overhaul your decision process to start. Try this in your next strategy meeting:

  1. Before the meeting: Identify the main proposal. Assign one person to build the strongest possible case against it as a deliverable with evidence—not to play devil's advocate in the room.
  2. In the meeting: Present the steelman case first. Ask the room: "Is this the strongest version of the objection? What have we missed?"
  3. During discussion: When responding to the steelman, explicitly address its strongest points—don't pivot to the weaker ones that are easier to rebut.
  4. In the decision record: Document the steelman and the responses alongside the decision. In six months, "why did we decide this?" has an answer that includes the strongest objections and why they were overruled.

Steelmanning is uncomfortable. It requires arguing against your own position with genuine effort, and it denies you the easy win over the weak version of the other side. But it's also the most reliable way to ensure your decisions can survive contact with reality—because they've already survived contact with the best possible case against them.

Buffett put a bear on his own stage. The question for your next big decision is simpler: who's yours?

Sources & Further Reading

Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking — Daniel Dennett (2013)

Chapter 3 codifies Rapoport's rules, the canonical steelmanning protocol, credited to game theorist Anatol Rapoport

Schweiger, Sandberg & Ragan — Academy of Management Journal 29(1), 1986

"Group Approaches for Improving Strategic Decision Making": devil's advocacy and dialectical inquiry vs. consensus

Performing a Project Premortem — Gary Klein, Harvard Business Review (2007)

The pre-mortem technique, built on Mitchell, Russo & Pennington's 1989 prospective-hindsight research (~30% finding)

Charlan Nemeth — minority dissent research, UC Berkeley

Authentic dissent vs. assigned devil's advocacy (European Journal of Social Psychology, 2001): why performed disagreement backfires

Warren Buffett recruits a bear — Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting (2013)

Buffett invited short-seller Doug Kass on stage to argue against Berkshire; covered by Forbes and CNBC, March-May 2013

Frequently Asked Questions

What is steelmanning and how is it different from strawmanning?

Steelmanning is the practice of constructing the strongest possible version of an opposing argument before engaging with it. Strawmanning is the opposite—attacking a weakened, distorted, or oversimplified version of an opponent's position. Strawmanning is the default human tendency: we represent opposing views in their weakest form because it's cognitively easier and feels like winning. Steelmanning is a deliberate discipline that requires seeking the strongest evidence and reasoning for the position you disagree with, and stating it more charitably than the opponent stated it themselves.

What are Rapoport's rules?

Rapoport's rules are the canonical steelmanning protocol, codified by philosopher Daniel Dennett in Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking (2013) and credited to game theorist Anatol Rapoport. Rule 1: re-express your target's position so clearly, vividly, and fairly that they say 'Thanks, I wish I'd thought of putting it that way.' Rule 2: list any points of agreement. Rule 3: mention anything you have learned from your target. Rule 4: only then are you permitted to say so much as a word of rebuttal or criticism. The rules make rebuttal a privilege earned by demonstrated comprehension.

Why do the best negotiators argue against themselves?

Credibility depends on intellectual honesty. When you can accurately represent the other side's strongest position—better than they stated it—you demonstrate that you've genuinely engaged with their reasoning rather than dismissed it. This disarms defensiveness, creates room for genuine concession, and often surfaces unexpected common ground. More practically: if you can articulate the strongest case against your own position and still defend it, your position is significantly stronger. If the strongest counterargument defeats you, you've discovered that before making an expensive commitment.

How do lawyers use steelmanning in Supreme Court cases?

Supreme Court advocates prepare for oral argument using moot courts—practice sessions where colleagues, law professors, and former clerks play the role of hostile justices and construct the most devastating available arguments against the advocate's position. Advocacy training, including David C. Frederick's treatise Supreme Court and Appellate Advocacy, treats finding the weaknesses in your own case before the justices do as core preparation: the justices will find every weakness, so the advocate must find them first.

Does research support steelmanning?

Yes, with an important caveat. Schweiger, Sandberg and Ragan (Academy of Management Journal, 1986) found that structured-dissent methods—devil's advocacy and dialectical inquiry—produced higher-quality strategic recommendations than consensus approaches. Mitchell, Russo and Pennington (1989) found prospective hindsight improves identification of a decision's failure causes by roughly 30%, the basis of Gary Klein's pre-mortem. The caveat comes from Charlan Nemeth's research: assigned, performative devil's advocacy tends to produce cognitive bolstering of the original view rather than genuine reconsideration. Steelmanning works when it is authentic evidence-seeking—a deliverable, not a role.

Can steelmanning be used in product decisions?

Product decisions are where steelmanning pays off fastest, because roadmaps are uniquely vulnerable to confirmation bias—building features that confirm existing beliefs about users rather than challenging them. Before committing to a major feature, the steelman exercise asks: what is the strongest possible case that this feature will fail? That we're solving the wrong problem? That users already have a solution we haven't investigated? Practical formats include the 'why this fails' document, the strongest-competitor-response scenario, the user-rejection scenario, and the survivorship test.

How do I practice steelmanning in my next meeting?

Before the meeting, pick the main proposal and assign one person to build the strongest documented case against it—with evidence, as a deliverable, not as a devil's-advocate role in the room. Open the meeting by presenting that steelman case first, then ask: 'Is this the strongest version of the objection, or have we missed something?' When responding, address the steelman's strongest points rather than pivoting to weaker ones. Finally, document the steelman and the responses alongside the decision so the reasoning survives for later review.

AT

Argumentree Team

Strategic Communication

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