Yadda McKinsey, Bridgewater, da Amazon ke juya rashin jituwa zuwa yanke shawara: Tsarin Tsari
McKinsey, Bridgewater, da Amazon suna da ra'ayi mai ban mamaki: rashin jituwa, idan an tsara shi yadda ya kamata, yana da amfani wajen ingancin yanke shawara. A cikin wasikar sa ta 2016 ga masu hannun jari, Jeff Bezos ya bayyana rashin jituwa da asalin Amazon Studios da rubuta amsa: 'Na ki yarda kuma na yi alkawari kuma ina fatan zai zama abu mafi kallo da muka taɓa yi'—rashin jituwa an bayyana shi sosai, a rubuce, wanda ya biyo bayan cikakken alkawari. 'Dole ne a yi rashin jituwa' na McKinsey, wani ka'ida da aka ba wa Marvin Bower, yana ba kowane mai ba da shawara—har da wanda ya fi ƙarancin kwarewa—hakki da nauyi na yin magana idan sun yi imani da cewa shawarar ba daidai ba ce; shiru game da kuskure da aka sani ana ɗauka a matsayin gazawa a fannin sana'a. Bridgewater Associates, babban asusun hedji a duniya, yana tsara rashin jituwa ta hanyar tarurrukan da aka rubuta, maki amincewa na kowanne fanni ('katunan baseball'), kimantawa na taron a lokacin (Dot Collector), da yanke shawara bisa ga amincewa; tsarin Ray Dalio shine cewa 'matsayin ra'ayi bisa ga amincewa shine mafi kyawun tsarin yanke shawara.' Hanyoyin Amazon sun haɗa da takardar labari mai shafi 6 da aka karanta a hankali na mintuna 30 na farko na taro—wanda ke hana tsarin mutum mai girma daga kafa dakin—da kuma ka'idar jagoranci 'ki yarda da ki yi alkawari', wanda ke buƙatar rashin jituwa a fili kafin yanke shawara da cikakken aiwatarwa bayan haka. Duk ukun suna haɗuwa kan abubuwa guda biyar na tsari: raba tunani daga kimantawa, buƙatar hujja tare da kowanne ƙalubale, rubuta duk ra'ayoyin rashin jituwa, kiyaye hakkin yanke shawara a fili, da kuma yin alkawari sosai da zarar an yanke shawara. Tushen bincike: hangen nesa na gaba yana inganta gano dalilan gazawa da kusan 30% (Mitchell, Russo da Pennington 1989, tushen pre-mortem na Gary Klein); rashin jituwa mai tsari ya samar da shawarwari masu inganci fiye da jituwa (Schweiger, Sandberg da Ragan, Jaridar Gudanarwa ta Academy 1986); da ra'ayoyin ƙananan suna faɗaɗa binciken ƙungiya don samun bayani da hanyoyin magance matsaloli (Charlan Nemeth, UC Berkeley).
Kungiyoyin da suka fi kowane a duniya suna gudanar da rashin jituwa ba tare da damuwa ba—suna tsarawa shi. McKinsey, Bridgewater, da Amazon kowanne ya gina tsarin hukuma da ke fitar da sauti daga rikici da juyar da rashin yarda zuwa fa'ida ga hukumar.
- Duk uku suna raba aikin rashin yarda daga aikin yanke shawara—kuma suna bukatar duka su faru a fili.
- Hujja ta farko tana da mahimmanci: ba tare da hujja ba, ba a da matsayin shiga cikin muhawara.
- Rubuta rashin jituwa yana da mahimmanci kamar rubuta shawarwari—yana ba da damar koyo bayan lokaci.
- Ana iya aiwatar da wannan tsarin a kowace ƙungiya cikin matakai guda biyar daga gobe.
Memos din da Bezos ya aiko game da wani shahararren shahararren shahararren da ba ya yarda da shi.
A cikin wasikar sa ta 2016 ga masu hannun jari na Amazon, Jeff Bezos ya ba da labari game da wani shahararren shahararren shahararren da ba ya son yi. Amazon Studios sun kawo masa wani asalin samarwa wanda ya yi shakkar gaske akansa. Ya kasance da ikon kashe shi da jumla. Maimakon haka, ya rubuta amsa:
Ban yarda ba amma na yi alkawari kuma ina fatan zai zama abu mafi kallo da muka taɓa yi.
Duba tsarin wannan jumla. An bayyana rashin jituwa a fili, a rubuce, a cikin rajista. Alkawarin yana cikakke—ba "lafiya, yi yadda kake so" ba, amma fata mai aiki don nasarar aikin. Bezos ba ya yi kyauta. Yana aiwatar da wani tsari.
Yawancin kungiyoyi ba su da rabin. Sabani yana kasancewa a cikin sirri, sadaukarwa tana kasancewa a cikin kashi, kuma shugabanni suna rikicewa tsakanin girma da inganci. Kungiyoyin da ke ci gaba da ficewa—McKinsey, Bridgewater, da Amazon suna kusa da saman kowanne irin jerin—sun gina tsarin da ke hana wannan rikicewar shafar yanke shawarar su. Kafin taron shugabancin ku na gaba, yana da kyau a duba yadda hakan ke faruwa.
Matsalar da yawancin kungiyoyi ba za su amince da ita ba
Shirin bincike na Charlan Nemeth a UC Berkeley ya gano cewa ƙungiyoyi da aka fuskanci ra'ayoyin ƙananan ƙungiyoyi—ko da kuwa ba daidai ba ne—suna neman ƙarin bayani, suna amfani da ƙarin dabaru, kuma suna samun ƙarin hanyoyin da suka dace fiye da ƙungiyoyi da ke haɗuwa da sauri. Idan ƙungiyoyinku suna yawan yarda da sauri, wannan ba hujja ce cewa suna daidai ba.
Tsarin Sabani
Rikici yana akwai a cikin wani yanayi daga gujewa gaba ɗaya zuwa cunkoso gaba ɗaya, tare da wani yanki mai amfani wanda yawancin ƙungiyoyi ko suna watsi da shi gaba ɗaya ko kuma suna wucewa ta hanyar kuskure.
Yankin samarwa ba hali bane na mutum—hakan yanayi ne na tsari. Kungiyoyi suna kaiwa ga hakan ba ta hanyar daukar mutane masu rashin jituwa ba, amma ta hanyar gina tsarin da ke sanya kin amincewa bisa hujja ya zama na al'ada, lafiya, da kuma wajibi.
McKinsey "Doka ta Kin Yarda"
Hanyar McKinsey na rashin jituwa tana da ban mamaki saboda an tsara ta a matsayin wajibi, ba izini ba. An ba da wannan ka'ida ga Marvin Bower, wanda ya tsara kamfanin, wanda ya ba kowane mai ba da shawara—har da wanda ya fi karancin kwarewa a aikin—hakkin da kuma wajibi na yin magana idan suna ganin shawara ko bincike ba daidai ba ne. Tsayawa shiru game da wata muhimmin korafi ana daukarsa a matsayin gazawa a fannin aiki, ba a matsayin aiki mai zaman kansa ba.
Abubuwa guda biyu suna sa ka'ida ta yi aiki a aikace. Na farko, ba ta da wani istinbadi na manyan mutane: wani mai nazari na ƙananan matakai yana da hakkin bayyana kuskure a cikin shawarar abokin hulɗa kamar yadda abokin hulɗa ke da hakkin bayyana kuskure a cikin dabarun abokin ciniki—kuma ƙananan matakan suna yawan kasancewa kusa da bayanai. Na biyu, al'adar tana sa ran cewa zarge-zarge za su zo tare da dalili. "Ban yi tunanin wannan zai yi aiki ba" jin ne; nazarin akasin shi gudummawa ne. Kamfanin ya wallafa nasa labarin ka'idar tare da taken "hakkin kin amincewa," kuma wannan yana daga cikin abubuwan da aka saba a kowanne bayanin al'adar McKinsey tun daga Bower.
Mafi zurfin batu shine wanda yawancin masu kwaikwayo ke rasa: wajibi yana juyawa tsohon al'ada na zamantakewa. A mafi yawan kamfanoni, yin magana yana dauke da hadari. A McKinsey, zama shiru yana dauke da hadari.
Bridgewater's Radical Transparency: Cikakken Tsarin
Bridgewater Associates—har yanzu shine babban hedji na duniya, yana gudanar da kusan dala biliyan 125—yana da al'adun sabani mafi inganci a cikin kasuwanci. Ana yawan bayyana shi a matsayin mai tsanani, kuma bisa ga ka'idojin gargajiya haka ne. Amma tsarin yana bayyana wani abu mai mahimmanci: ba al'adar fuskantar juna ba ce mara iyaka. Al'adar shaidar tsarin ce.
Taron Rikodi
Ana rubuta tarurruka kuma ana iya bincikarsu. Manufar ba ta sa ido ba—ita ce tunanin cibiyar. Lokacin da aka sake duba hukunci, ana iya dawo da dalilin da ya sa aka yanke hukuncin, ba kawai labarin hukuma ba.
Katin Baseball
Ma'aikata suna da maki amincewa a kowanne fanni, wanda aka gina daga tarihin su na hasashe da yanke shawara a wannan fannin. Ra'ayoyi suna da nauyi bisa ga amincewar fanni, ba bisa ga matsayin shugabanci ba.
Mai Tarawa Dot
Auna ainihin lokaci na mahalarta yayin taron. Lokacin da wani ya gabatar da ra'ayi, wasu nan take suna auna ingancinsa. Hadadden auna yana bayyana ingancin gaskiya a kan ikon zamantakewa.
Amfanin Gaskiya
Jin ra'ayin kan manyan shawara yana da nauyi bisa ga ingancin da ya dace. Ra'ayin Dalio kan macroeconomics yana da muhimmanci fiye da ra'ayinsa kan tsarin fasaha—a fili, ba kawai a al'ada ba.
Tsarin yanke shawara mafi kyau shine tsarin kyakkyawan ra'ayi wanda aka yi la'akari da ingancin gaskiya.
Tasirin tsarin shine ya sa rashin jituwa ya zama ba na mutum ba. Lokacin da aka kimanta kin amincewarka a cikin lokaci na gaske kuma darajar amincinka ta nuna tarihin ka, halayen zamantakewa da ke hana jayayya—girmama ga hukuma, tsoron a gan ka a matsayin mai wahala—suna rasa karfinsu. Gargadi mai kyau: rahoton kan Bridgewater ya tambayi yadda kyakkyawan tsarin kyautatawa ke cika bayanin kansa. Amma ko da an rage shi, ka'idar zane tana nan: muhawara tana fafatawa bisa ga kyawawan halaye saboda tsarin yana ci gaba da tabbatar da cewa kyawawan halaye sune abin da cibiyar ke daraja.
Tsarin Sabani na Amazon
Gudunmawar Amazon ita ce mafi ainihin aiki: matsaloli guda biyu, hanyoyi guda biyu, duka an tabbatar da su.
Takardar shafi 6 tana kashe tsarin HiPPO kafin taron ya fara. Taron don manyan shawara yana farawa da har zuwa mintuna 30 na karatun shuru na labarin da aka rubuta—babu slides. Shugaban kamfani yana karanta wannan takarda tare da wanda ya fi karancin matsayi a dakin, a lokaci guda. Lokacin da tattaunawa ta fara, kowa ya riga ya fahimci wannan bayani guda ba tare da tasirin kafa na bude tattaunawa daga babban shugaba ba. Bezos ya kira wannan aikin takarda ɗaya daga cikin abubuwan mafi wayo da Amazon ta taɓa yi. (Don yadda takardar shafi 6 ta dace da tsarin yanke shawara na Bezos, duba falsafar yanke shawara guda uku a rana.)
"Karya da yarda" yana magance yanayin gazawar bayan yanke shawara. Mafi yawan kungiyoyi a kalla sun san cewa ya kamata su warware rashin jituwa kafin yanke shawara. Kusan babu wanda ke da ka'idoji masu bayyana game da abin da ke faruwa bayan yanke shawara, lokacin da mutanen da suka yi rashin jituwa har yanzu suna da rashin jituwa. Ka'idar Amazon ba ta da rudani: kana aiwatar da cikakken, kamar yadda yanke shawarar ta kasance ta ka. Kuma yana da gaskiya ne kawai saboda rabin farko—cikakken, bayyananne rashin jituwa kafin yanke shawara—ana bukata sosai, ba kawai an yarda da shi ba.
Dalilin da ya sa yawancin aiwatar da "Yarda da Karya" ke gaza
Kungiyoyi suna karɓar "sabani da yarda" a matsayin ka'ida don halayen bayan yanke shawara ba tare da aiwatar da bukatar kafin yanke shawara ba. Sakamakon: mutane suna yarda a cikin shiru, suna kiyayewa da sabanin su a cikin sirri, kuma suna aiwatar da shi ba tare da ƙwazo ba. Ka'idar tana zama "ka yi shiru ka yi shi." Rabin kafin yanke shawara ba zaɓi bane—shi ne abin da ke sa rabin bayan yanke shawara ya zama na gaskiya.
Tsarin Kawa: Abin da Duk Uku Suke Raba
Duk da masana'antu, al'adu, da hanyoyin daban-daban, McKinsey, Bridgewater, da Amazon sun haɗu kan abubuwa guda biyar da ke bayyana sabani mai amfani a matakin ƙungiya. Wannan shine irin tsarin tunani da Steve Jobs ya yi amfani da shi a hukumar Pixar—kirkirar yanayi don sabani maimakon neman halayya:
Raba tunani daga kimantawa
Kirkirar zaɓuɓɓuka da kimanta zaɓuɓɓuka matakai ne masu bambanci tare da dokoki daban-daban. A lokacin tunani, duk ra'ayoyi suna da inganci. A lokacin kimantawa, shaidar tana da wajibi. Hada su yana haifar da haɗin kai na wuri kafin lokaci.
Shaida-farko (babu ra'ayi ba tare da dalili ba)
Wani korafi ba tare da goyon bayan nazari ba ba shi da tasiri a cikin shawarar—kawai hayaniya ne. Dukkan al'ummomin guda uku suna sa ran rashin jituwa zai zo tare da dalili, ko da kuwa wannan dalilin ba cikakke ba ne.
Tsarin rikodin dukkan korafe-korafe
Sabani da ke faruwa amma ba a rubuta su ba ba su da wani amfani ga ƙungiya. Rikodin rashin jituwa yana da mahimmanci kamar rikodin hukuncin da kansa—yana ba da damar koyo bayan yanke hukunci.
Hakkokin yanke shawara masu kyau (wanene ke yanke shawara, ba wanene ke ihu mafi ƙarfi ba)
Dukkanin kungiyoyi uku suna da tsare-tsare masu bayyana kan wanda ke da ikon yanke shawara. Ana maraba da sabani daga kowa. Ikon yanke shawara yana belong ga wani takamaiman matsayi. Hada su biyu yana haifar da jinkiri.
Bayan yanke shawara, sadaukarwa ba tare da la'akari da matsayin farko ba
Da zarar an yanke shawara, rashin jituwa ya kare. Aiwar da shawara ba tare da kwarin gwiwa ba saboda ka ki yarda da ita wata hanyar gazawa ce daban — kuma an bayyana ta a fili a cikin dukkanin al'adu uku.
Abin da Binciken Ya Nuna Gaskiya
Tsarin ba kawai labarin kamfani ba ne—sassan suna da tushe na kimiyya:
Pre-mortems: ~30%
Hankali na gaba—inda aka dauka cewa shawara ta riga ta gaza kuma ana bayyana dalilin—ya inganta gano dalilan sakamako da kusan kashi 30% fiye da nazarin gaba na al'ada. Gary Klein ya gina fasahar pre-mortem bisa wannan binciken.
Mitchell, Russo & Pennington 1989; Klein, HBR 2007
Tsarin rashin jituwa ya fi ra'ayi daya.
Hujjar shaidan da binciken dialektik sun samar da shawarwari da hasashen dabaru masu inganci fiye da hanyoyin yarda—tare da farashi mai auna a cikin gamsuwar rukuni. Jin dadin da inganci suna musayar juna.
Schweiger, Sandberg & Ragan, Mujallar Gudanarwa ta Academy 1986
Ra'ayoyin kankare suna faɗaɗa bincike
Groups da aka bayyana ga ra'ayoyin ƙananan suna neman ƙarin bayani, suna amfani da ƙarin dabaru, kuma suna samun ƙarin ingantattun hanyoyi fiye da ƙungiyoyin da aka bayyana kawai ga manyan ra'ayoyi—ko da lokacin da ra'ayin ƙananan ya kasance ba daidai ba.
Charlan Nemeth, UC Berkeley
Shin wannan ba zai rage komai ba?
Matsalar da aka saba yi wa rashin jituwa mai tsari ita ce sauri: idan kowace shawara tana bukatar ta tsira daga korafe-korafe da aka rubuta, wani abu na mai kare ra'ayi, da kuma binciken kafin mutuwa, shin ba za a tsaya kungiyar ba?
Amsar Bezos a cikin wannan wasiƙar ta 2016 ita ce cewa tsarin yana gudana a wata hanya. Mahallin "sabani da yarda" wani sashe ne da aka rubuta da gaske da suna yanke shawara mai sauri:
Yi amfani da kalmar 'sabani da yarda.' Wannan kalmar za ta ceci lokaci mai yawa. Idan kana da tabbaci kan wani hanya duk da cewa ba a yarda ba, yana da amfani ka ce, 'Duba, na san muna sabani a kan wannan amma za ka yi caca tare da ni a kai? Sabani da yarda?'
Tsarin shine abin da ke ba ka damar daina muhawara. Lokacin da rashin jituwa yana da wuri na hukuma da za a rubuta, ba ya bukatar a sake shari'a a cikin hanyoyi; lokacin da hakkin yanke shawara ya bayyana (abin da aka bayyana na 04), babu wanda ya kamata ya lashe jituwa don ci gaba; kuma lokacin da aka kula da shawarar da za a iya juyawa daban da wadanda ba za a iya juyawa ba, mafi yawan kira ba sa bukatar dukkanin kayan aiki. Kungiyoyin da ke jinkiri sune wadanda rashin jituwa ba shi da hanyar fita—saboda haka yana zuba cikin kowanne taro, har abada.
Aiƙa Tsarin Sabani: Matakai 5
Ba kwa buƙatar yin rikodin duk taron ku ko aiwatar da ƙididdigar amincewa don kama babban ƙima. Ana iya aiwatar da waɗannan matakai guda biyar a taron ku na gaba kuma a yi amfani da su a dukkan ƙungiyar cikin wata uku:
Rubuta kafin ka yi magana
Nemi kowane mahalarta ya rubuta matsayin su kafin a fara kowanne tattaunawa na rukuni. Wannan yana hana tsayawa a wuri guda kuma yana ƙirƙirar tushe mai gaskiya.
Shaida tare da kowace korafi
Kafa ka'ida: korafe-korafe ba tare da dalilin goyon baya ba ba su yi aiki a matsayin korafe-korafe. Ana rubuta su amma ba sa shiga cikin rajistar yanke shawara.
Sanya shari'ar akasin a matsayin abin da za a bayar
Kafin kowanne babban hukunci, sanya mutum guda ya kawo mafi karfi shaidar da aka rubuta a kan hanyar da ake bi—tushen shaidar a hannu, ba wani rawar da aka taka a dakin ba. (Duba jagorar mu kan steelmanning don dalilin da ya sa tsarin bayar da aiki yake da mahimmanci.)
Rubuta ra'ayin ƙananan ƙungiyoyi
Rubutun taron ya kamata ya haɗa da ra'ayoyi masu sabani tare da dalilansu, ba kawai shawarar ƙarshe ba. Wannan yana haifar da alhakin aiki da kuma ba da damar koyo daga baya.
Gudanar da binciken kafin mutuwa
Kafin kammala kowanne muhimmin hukunci, ka ɗauki minti 15 ka yi tunanin cewa ya riga ya gaza. Me ya faru? Amsoshin suna bayyana haɗarin da jituwa ke ɓoye.
Tsarawa da Sabani a Manyan Hanyoyi
Abin da ke iyakance yawancin kungiyoyi ba shine son sabani ba—amma tsarin da ke tattara sabani a cikin hanya mai amfani. Kwatancen magana a taron suna bacewa daga tunanin hukumar cikin awanni 48. Rubutattun takardu suna taimakawa, amma suna haifar da jayayya wanda ke rage yawan lokacin da ake bayyana sabani.
Argumentree an gina shi don wannan matsalar: tsarin itacen muhawara wanda ke kama kowanne korafi, kowanne hujja mai goyon baya, da kowanne hujja mai akasin ra'ayi a cikin tsari, mai bincike, da kuma mai duba. Lokacin da tawagarku ke tattaunawa kan wani shawara na dabaru, itacen tunani yana kasancewa - ba kawai kammalawa ba. Bayan watanni shida, zaku iya ganin ba kawai abin da aka yanke shawara ba, har ma dalilin, da kuma wane zabin aka ki kan wane tushe.
Wannan shi ne tunanin cibiyar da McKinsey ke gina ta hanyar takardun hulɗa, Bridgewater ta hanyar rikodi, da Amazon ta hanyar shafuka 6—an sarrafa su cikin tsarin da aka tsara don amfani na ci gaba, ba kawai don dawo da bayanai ba.
Tsarin Gaskiya
Cire alamar—nauyin kin yarda, bayyana gaskiya sosai, sabani da kuma yarda—kuma al'adun uku suna gudanar da irin wannan tsari: sanya kin yarda a matsayin wajibi kafin yanke shawara, sanya yarda a matsayin wajibi bayan yanke shawara, da rubuta komai a tsakanin.
Babu wani abu daga cikin wannan da ke bukatar kasafin kudi na hedji ko kuma basirar kamfanin shawara. Abin da ake bukata shine yanke shawara cewa yarjejeniya ba ita ce burin taronku ba—amma yanke shawara mafi kyau ne. Rashin jituwa ba shi ne matsalar ba. Rashin tsari ne.
Hanyoyin Koyo & Karatu na Ƙari
Tushen farko na "sabani da yarda" da yanke shawara mai sauri, gami da misalin Amazon Studios da aka ambata a sama
Tsarin aiki na Bridgewater: kyakkyawan ra'ayi, nauyin gaskiya, bayyana gaskiya, katunan baseball, da Dot Collector
Bayanin kamfanin na ka'idar rashin jituwa da aka ba wa Marvin Bower; kuma an bayyana a cikin littafin Ethan Rasiel na The McKinsey Way (1999)
Hanyar pre-mortem, wanda aka gina bisa binciken Mitchell, Russo & Pennington na 1989 na hangen nesa na gaba (~30% gano)
Ra'ayoyin kankare da tunani mai bambanci (Jaridar Harkokin Zamani na Aiwatar, 1987, da sauran ayyuka)
Tambayoyi da ake yawan yi
Menene wajibin McKinsey na rashin yarda?
"Obligation to dissent" na McKinsey wani ka'ida ne na sana'a da aka ba wa Marvin Bower, wanda ya tsara kamfanin: kowanne mai ba da shawara, ba tare da la'akari da matsayin sa ba, yana da hakkin da kuma wajibi na yin magana idan suna ganin shawara ko nazari ba daidai ba ne. Karya yin shiru game da wata muhimmin korafi ana daukarsa a matsayin gazawa a sana'a, ba a matsayin aiki na rashin ra'ayi ba. Wannan ka'idar ba ta da wani tsari na fifiko—masanin matakin ƙasa yana da hakkin ya nuna kuskure a cikin aikin abokin tarayya kamar yadda abokin tarayya ke da hakkin ya nuna wani a cikin dabarun abokin ciniki—kuma a aikace ana sa ran korafe-korafe su zo tare da dalili, ba kawai rashin jin dadi ba.
Yaya aikin bayyana gaskiya mai tsanani na Bridgewater a aikace?
Bridgewater na rikodin taruka kuma yana sanya su a cikin bincike, kuma ka'idar 'idea meritocracy' na nufin ingancin tunani—ba matsayin marubucinsa ba—yana tantance nauyinsa. Hanyoyin da aka rubuta: Dot Collector (kimantawa na ainihi na gudummawa a lokacin taruka), 'katunan baseball' (makin amincewa na kowanne fanni da aka gina daga tarihin kowanne mutum), da kuma nauyin amincewa (jefa kuri'a kan manyan shawara da aka nauyi bisa ga amincewa mai dacewa, ba yawan mutane ba). Tsarin Ray Dalio a cikin Principles: 'A believability-weighted idea meritocracy shine mafi kyawun tsarin yanke shawara.'
Menene ka'idar 'sabani da yarda' daga Amazon?
'Karya da yarda' wani ka'ida ne na jagorancin Amazon tare da sassa biyu masu nauyi iri daya: karya gaba daya da bayyana kafin a kammala shawarar—akan takarda, tare da dalili—sannan, da zarar an yanke shawara, aiwatar da ita kamar yadda shawarar ta kasance ra'ayin ka. Jeff Bezos ya bayar da misali na gargajiya a cikin wasikar masu hannun jari ta 2016: ya karya da bayar da izini ga wani asalin Amazon Studios kuma ya rubuta 'Na karya da yarda kuma ina fatan zai zama abu mafi kallo da muka taba yi.' Hakanan ya tsara wannan furucin a matsayin hanyar adana lokaci: yana ba da damar kungiyoyi su motsa da tabbaci lokacin da ba a sami jituwa ba.
Menene bambanci tsakanin sabani mai amfani da sabani mara amfani?
Tatsuniyoyin rashin jituwa masu amfani suna da tsari, suna da hujja, kuma suna rabu da asalin mutum. Suna kalubalantar hujja, ba mai hujjar ba, kuma suna samar da sabbin bayanai—wannan na iya zama nazari mai akasin ra'ayi, wani tunani da aka bayyana, ko wani bayanin da aka watsi da shi—wanda ke inganta shawarar karshe. Rashin jituwa mara amfani yana da matsayi: yana kare wani matsayi maimakon inganta fahimta, kuma yana karuwa a cikin jin dadin zuciya ba tare da inganta hujja ba. Gwajin tsari yana da sauki: rashin jituwa mai amfani yana canza bayanan da ke akwai ga masu yanke shawara; rashin jituwa mara amfani yana canza kawai yanayin jin dadin dakin.
Ta yaya za ka samar da tsaro na tunani don rashin jituwa?
Hanyoyin da suka fi tasiri suna haɗa ɓoyayyen tsarin tare da ingancin tsarin hukuma. Tarin ra'ayi na farko a ɓoye (kafin tattaunawa ta bude) yana cire haɗarin zamantakewa daga bayyana ra'ayoyin ƙananan. Ba da aikin akasin a matsayin abin da za a bayar yana ba wa mutane izinin muhawara kan hanyar da ta shahara ba tare da a gan su a matsayin masu hana ci gaba ba. Pre-mortems ('ka yi tunanin wannan ya riga ya gaza—me ya sa?') suna sa sukar ta zama aikin maimakon zama juyawa daga gare ta. Binciken Amy Edmondson a Jami'ar Harvard Business School yana nuna cewa tsaro na tunani yana ginuwa a cikin babban hali na shugaba—kuma a aikace, babu wani abu da ke nuna shi da sauri fiye da canza shawara a fili saboda wani ƙaramin mutum ya bayyana hujja akasin.
Ta yaya kuke magance matsalar HiPPO (ra'ayin wanda aka fi biyan kudi)?
Matsalar HiPPO—inda tsarin mulki ke maye gurbin ingancin nazari—na bukatar matakan tsari na kariya, saboda shawarwarin zamantakewa suna ci gaba da kasa. Hadin gwiwar da ta fi tasiri: kuri'un farko na rashin suna (kowa yana rubuta ra'ayinsa kafin babban mutum ya yi magana) tare da gabatar da hujjoji masu tsari (kowane matsayi yana bukatar shaidar goyon baya kafin tattaunawa). Wannan yana canza tsarin jere—tun kafin HiPPO ya yi magana, kowane mahalarta ya riga ya dauki matsayi a rubuce, don haka juyawa ga ra'ayin shugaban yana zama aiki mai bayyana. Takardar Amazon ta shafi shafuka 6 tare da karatu a shiru tana magance wannan matsala a cikin rubutaccen salo: kowa yana sarrafa wannan takarda guda kafin wani ya tsara ta.
Menene alamomin da ke nuna cewa ƙungiyarku na guje wa sabani mai amfani?
Muhimman alamomi: tarurrukan da ke kammala cikin yarjejeniya cikin mintuna 20 na farko ba tare da la'akari da wahalar batun ba; tsarin farko na mutum mafi girma yana zama hukuncin karshe akai-akai; babu wani rikodin ra'ayoyin kankara a cikin bayanan taro; nazarce-nazarce da ba su taɓa bayyana 'ya kamata mu kama wannan da wuri' ba; da kuma kuskuren dabaru guda ɗaya da ke maimaituwa a cikin shirye-shirye. Gwajin da ya fi dacewa: tambayi mutane guda biyar masu girma su bayyana lokacin da suka canza matsayinsu saboda hujjar abokin aiki. Al'ummomin rashin jituwa masu lafiya suna bayar da amsa cikin sauƙi. Wasu suna fama.
Argumentree Team
Organizational Psychology
The Argumentree team is pioneering structured decision intelligence for enterprises worldwide. Our mission is to transform how organizations make, document, and learn from decisions.
Tafi zurfi kan rashin jituwa mai tsari
Tsarin yana daya daga cikin alamu a cikin iyali: al'adun yanke shawara mafi kyau na tsara sabani maimakon neman sa.
Gina mafi karfi hujja mai akasin ra'ayi kafin ka shiga—ka'idojin Rapoport da binciken
Me yasa Jobs ya kore mambobin kwamitin Pixar da ba su taɓa sabani da shi ba
Takardar shafi 6, shawarar Nau'in 1/Nau'in 2, da kuma juyin shawara da ke bayan saurin Amazon
Juya rashin jituwa na ƙungiyarku zuwa mafi kyawun yanke shawara.
Argumentree na ba kowanne korafi wuri don zama—an tsara shi, an haɗa da hujjoji, kuma yana zama ɓangare na dindindin na tarihin yanke shawarar ku.
Fara Gwaji Kyauta na Kwana 14 →