Samfuran Tunani don Yanke Shawara: Jagorar Da Aka Kimanta Bisa Shaida Kan Samfura Bakwai — Menene Kowanne Ke Faɗi, Inda Ya Samu, Abin da Bincike Ke Nuna, da Inda Ya Karye
Tsarin tunani shine wakilcin cikin sauƙaƙe na yadda abubuwa ke aiki, wanda aka yi amfani da shi don yin tunani game da yanayi kafin a yi aiki. Wannan ra'ayi ya fito daga Kenneth Craik (Nau'in Bayani, 1943), wanda ya ba da shawarar cewa kwakwalwa tana ɗauke da ƙaramin samfurin na gaskiyar waje wanda ke ba da damar wani halitta ya gwada zaɓuɓɓuka kafin ya yi aiki; Tsarin Tunani na Philip Johnson-Laird (1983) ya sanya shi zama ginshiƙi na kimiyyar tunani. Jawabin Charlie Munger na 1994 a USC ya juya shi zuwa falsafar yanke shawara: dole ne ka sami samfuran a cikin kwakwalwarka, suna cikin tsarin lattice, saboda gaskiyoyin da ba su haɗu a kan tsarin lattice na ka'idoji ba su cikin tsarin da za a iya amfani da shi. Samfuran guda bakwai da aka fi ambato don yanke shawara, bisa ga shaidar: (1) Tunanin ka'idoji na farko — raba zuwa gaskiyoyi masu tushe da sake gina (archai na Aristotle; tsarin Musk na 2012); ƙarfi mai ƙarfi, mai tsada don gudanarwa. (2) Farashin dama — kowanne eh yana zama a'a ga mafi kyawun zaɓi; tushen tattalin arziki. (3) Tunanin mataki na biyu — bin diddigin sakamakon sakamakon (Howard Marks 2011; Merton 1936 akan sakamakon da ba a zata ba). (4) Haɗawa — ƙananan zaɓuɓɓuka masu maimaitawa suna taruwa; daidai ne a lissafi, mafi rauni a matsayin kayan aikin yanke shawara. (5) Ƙarfafawa — tambayi wanda zai amfana kafin karɓar shawara; tattalin arzikin babban jigo da son zuciya na Munger. (6) Tunanin yiwuwar — yanke shawara bisa ga yiwuwar, ba tabbaci ba; ƙungiyar da aka fi tabbatar da ita: ra'ayin fata (Kahneman & Tversky 1979), binciken hasashen Tetlock, dokar bayanai 70%-na Bezos. (7) Juya — bayyana yadda za ka fadi da guje masa (Jacobi ta hanyar Munger); sigar ƙungiyarsa ita ce premortem (Klein 2007), wanda aka yarda da shi da ƙarin ~30% a cikin gano dalilan faduwa daidai — amma Mitchell, Russo & Pennington (1989) sun auna kusan 30% ƙarin dalilai da aka samar a ƙarƙashin tsarin tabbaci, sun ruwaito cewa hangen nesa na lokaci ya nuna ƙaramin tasiri, kuma ba a taɓa tantance ko dalilan sun dace ba. Gargaɗin gaskiya: jerin samfuran da aka ƙ memorized ba su da ma'ana — samfuran suna aiki ne kawai lokacin da aka yi amfani da su ga yanke shawara na gaske, kuma nazarin albarkatun-rational (Lieder & Griffiths 2020) yana bayyana dalilin: samfuran suna heuristics waɗanda ƙimar su ta dogara da dacewa da yanayin. Itace itace ta hanyar aiki da samfuran: sharuɗɗan da za a iya kaiwa (ka'idoji na farko), sakamakon a matsayin hujjoji na yara (mataki na biyu), gefen con a matsayin juyawa, filayen shaidar da ke bayyana ƙarfafawa, ƙididdiga da ke bayyana nauyin yiwuwar.
A cikin 1994, Charlie Munger ya gaya wa ɗakin karatu na ɗaliban kasuwanci na USC cewa asirin hikimar duniya ba ya ƙara gaskiya: dole ne ka sami samfura a cikin kwakwalwarka — wani tsarin su — ko kuma gaskiyar ba ta kai ga amfani ba. Shekaru talatin daga baya, samfuran tunani suna zama wani nau'in jerin abubuwa marasa tushe. Wannan shine sigar akasin: samfuran guda bakwai da suka fi dacewa da su, kowanne tare da tushensa na farko, matsayin shaidarsa, da wurin da ya karye.
- Kalmar tana da tarihin kimiyya na gaske: Samfuran ƙananan ƙananan na Craik na gaskiya (1943) → Samfuran Tunani na Johnson-Laird (1983) → Tsarin Munger (1994).
- Bakwai: ka'idoji na farko · farashin dama · tunani na mataki na biyu · tarawa · kwarin gwiwa · tunani na yiwuwar · juyawa.
- Lambar guda ɗaya da nau'in ke ambato an yi kuskure a cikin rahoton: ~30% na premortem shine ƙarin dalilai da aka samar, ba ƙarin da suka dace ba — kuma yana fitowa daga tunanin tabbaci, ba daga hangen nesa na gaba ba.
- Hujja mafi kyau da aka tabbatar ita ce tunanin yiwuwa — ka'idar tsammani da binciken hasashen sun sanya ainihin abubuwa a bayan tunani a cikin fare.
- Matsalar gaskiya ta wannan nau'in: jerin da aka koya a hankali ba shi da amfani. Samfura suna biyan kuɗi ne kawai idan an yi amfani da su wajen yanke shawara a zahiri — wanda shine matsalar tsarin, ba matsalar tunawa ba.
A cikin Afrilu 1994, Charlie Munger ya tsaya a gaban ajin zuba jari na Guilford Babcock a USC kuma ya yi magana wacce za ta kafa wani nau'i a hankali. Ikon sa ba shine cewa daliban suna bukatar karin bayani ba — amma cewa bayani ba tare da tsari ba yana da amfani: idan gaskiyoyin ba su hade a kan tsarin ka'ida ba, ba ku da su a cikin tsarin da za a iya amfani da shi. Maganin: dole ne ku sami samfura a cikin kwakwalwarku — tamanin ko casa daga cikinsu, daga kowanne fanni — kuma dole ne ku tsara kwarewarku a kan wannan tsarin.
Shekaru talatin bayan haka, tsarin tunani wani nau'in abun ciki ne: zaren viral suna lissafa samfuran guda bakwai a cikin sakin layi bakwai, babu wanda aka samo, babu wanda aka kimanta. Samfuran kansu suna da hakki mafi kyau — da yawa suna da ainihin asalin ilimi, kuma tasirin guda ɗaya da nau'in ke ambato yana bayyana cewa yana auna wani abu daban da abin da aka ambata. Gaskiyar jerin dole ne ta faɗi abin da nau'in viral ba ya taɓa yi: inda kowanne samfur ya fito, menene shaidar ainihi, da inda ya karye.
Ga wannan shine sigar da aka tantance: menene ainihin samfurin tunani (tambaya da kimiyyar tunani ta amsa a 1943), guda bakwai da suka fi dacewa don yanke shawara, da kuma abin da ya sa sanin jerin ba ya canza komai — tare da abin da ke canza.
Dole ne ka sami samfura a cikin kwakwalwarka.
Kuma dole ne ka tsara kwarewarka a kan wannan tsarin samfuran.
— Charlie Munger, Darasi kan Ilimin Kasa na Asali, USC (1994)
Menene ainihin Samfurin Tunani
Kalmar ta gabata da wannan nau'in na tsawon rabin karni. A cikin The Nature of Explanation (1943), masanin ilimin halayyar dan Adam na Cambridge Kenneth Craik ya gabatar da ra'ayin cewa tunani yana dauke da karamin samfur na gaskiyar waje — kuma wannan shine dukkanin dabarar basira: wani halitta tare da samfurin ciki na iya gwada zabuka, ya yanke shawarar wanne ne mafi kyau, kuma ya yi martani ga yanayi kafin su faru, a cikin hanya mafi cike, mafi lafiya da kuma mafi kwarewa. Littafin Philip Johnson-Laird na Mental Models (1983) ya gina wannan fahimtar a matsayin ginshikin kimiyyar tunani: ba mu yi tunani ta hanyar lissafi ba amma ta hanyar gina da duba samfurin ciki na yanayi.
Gudunmawar Munger ta kasance ta ka'ida: idan tunani yana gudana bisa ga samfura, zaɓi su da gangan — tattara manyan ra'ayoyi daga manyan fannonin ilimi maimakon gado duk abin da sana'arka ta koya, kuma ka rataya sabbin gaskiya a kan tsarin yayin da suke zuwa. Wannan sabuntawa shine abin da ke raba samfurin tunani daga tsarin aiki: samfurin yanke shawara yana bayar da hanyoyi; samfurin tunani shine kyamara da kake ɗauka cikin kowanne yanayi. Hudu daga cikin su suna da karfi mafi girma don aikin yanke shawara.
Bakwai, An Kimanta Shaida
Ga kowanne: abin da yake cewa, inda ya fito daga, abin da shaidar ke nuna — da inda ya karye. Uku suna da cikakkun shafukan aboki; yi amfani da su don zurfi.
1. Tunani bisa ga ka'idoji na farko
Raba matsalar zuwa ga gaskiyarta ta asali, mai tabbatarwa kuma ka gina daga gare su, maimakon kwafa ta hanyar misali.
TusheAristotle's archai (Metaphysics); hanyar Descartes; tsarin Musk na 2012 — rage abubuwa zuwa ga mafi asali gaskiya kuma ka yi tunani daga can.
Shaida & iyakokiTushen ra'ayi mai ƙarfi, babu gwaje-gwaje masu sarrafawa — kuma yana da tsada a gudanar. Yi amfani da shi akan sabbin, masu tasiri ko matsaloli da suka tsaya; yi amfani da misali mai arha a wani wuri. Cikakken magani: menene tunanin ka'idoji na farko?
2. Farashin dama
Farashin gaskiya na kowanne zaɓi shine mafi kyawun madadin da yake hana — kowanne eh yana zama a'a ga wani abu.
TusheTattalin arziki na asali, wanda aka tsara a cikin al'adar Austrian (Wieser) da kuma a kowanne littafin gabatarwa tun daga lokacin.
Shaida & iyakokiKamar yadda ra'ayoyin tattalin arziki suke da karfi; hanyar gazawa ita ce amfani da rashin motsawa - farashin kowanne awa na hutu a matsayin satar. Yi amfani da shi don kwatanta zaɓuɓɓuka, ba don haifar da jin kunya ba. Hakanan yana cikin injin a cikin lissafin gamsarwa: farashin bincike suna da farashin dama.
3. Tunani na mataki na biyu
Bi sawun sakamakon sakamakon — sannan me? — domin zaren farko na tasiri shine inda bincike ya tsaya kuma ba a yawan inda gaskiya ta tsaya.
TusheTunani na mataki na biyu na Howard Marks (Abin da ya fi muhimmanci, 2011); ka'idar Robert K. Merton ta sakamakon da ba a zata ba (1936).
Shaida & iyakokiTsohon zurfi, hakika tsari yana bukata: rashin tsari yana haifar da sakamakon da ke zama hanyoyi masu santsi. Cikakken magani: menene tunani na mataki na biyu?
4. Haɗawa
Zaɓuɓɓuka ƙanana da aka maimaita suna taruwa suna haifar da manyan sakamako — a dukkan hanyoyi.
TusheLissafi, wanda aka aro daga kudi zuwa al'adun dabi'a.
Shaida & iyakokiMafi rauni daga cikin bakwai a matsayin kayan yanke shawara: gaskiya kamar lissafi, mai rauni kamar ilimin halayyar dan adam, kuma yawanci wani tsarin motsa jiki ne. Amfani da shi don tambaya guda daya kawai — menene wannan zaɓin da ake maimaitawa ke haifarwa? — kuma jerin gaskiya suna faɗi haka.
5. Kayan ƙarfafawa
Kafin ka karɓi shawara, tambayi abin da mai ba da shawarar zai samu idan ka yarda da su.
TusheBabban mai kula da mai aiki; son zuciya da Munger ya haifar a cikin Ilimin Halayen Karya na Dan Adam (Almanack na Talaka Charlie).
Shaida & iyakokiSana'a mai karfi sosai kamar tattalin arziki; hanyar gazawa ita ce yawan amfani da ita da zai iya lalata — daukar kowanne sabani a matsayin rashin gaskiya. Filtan yana nufin nauyin shaidar, ba watsi da mutane ba, wanda shine dalilin da ya sa layin ad hominem yake da mahimmanci a nan.
6. Tunanin yiwuwar
Yanke shawara bisa ga yiwuwar nasara, ba tabbaci ba: tambayi ko wannan yana ƙara yiwuwar nasarata? kuma sanya bet mafi kyau maimakon jiran abubuwan da aka tabbatar.
TusheKa'idar hangen nesa ta Kahneman & Tversky (1979) kan yadda muke ainihin kimanta yiwuwar; binciken hasashen Tetlock kan wanda ke yin kimantawa mai kyau; sigar aiki ta Bezos — yanke shawara tare da ~70% na bayanan da kake son ka samu.
Shaida & iyakokiRukunin da aka fi tabbatar da shi a cikin jerin — canje-canje na nauyin yiwuwa da horon daidaitawa suna auna sakamakon. Bincikenmu mai zurfi: ka'idar tsammanin don ƙungiyoyi.
7. Juyawa
Fassara daidai yadda za ku gaza, ku guje shi — ku yi tunani a baya lokacin da gaba ya yi wahala.
TusheMasanin lissafi Carl Jacobi ya ce "dole ne a koma baya," wanda Munger ya aiwatar a cikin yanke shawara.
Shaida & iyakokiMafi ingantaccen fasaha a cikin jerin — kuma lambar da kowa ke haɗawa da ita gaskiya ce amma an yi kuskure a cikin rahoton. Mitchell, Russo & Pennington (1989) sun gano cewa tunanin wani abu yana riga ya faru, maimakon cewa yana iya faruwa, yana ƙara lambar dalilai da aka samar da kusan 30%. Abubuwa guda biyu da ba su zama: ba ƙarin daidai ba ne — takardar ba ta taɓa tantance ko dalilan sun dace ba — kuma ba tasirin hangen nesa na gaba ba ne, tun da wannan gwajin yana ruwaito cewa hangen nesa na lokaci ya nuna ƙaramin tasiri, tare da tabbacin sakamako yana yin aikin. Don haka premortem yana samun wurin sa ta hanyar samar da ƙarin hanyoyin faduwa, da kuma canza rashin jituwa daga aikin jarumta zuwa aikin da aka sanya (Klein, HBR 2007) — ba ta hanyar sanya ƙungiya 30% mafi daidai ba. Muna bin diddigin kuskuren karatu a cikin 12 son zuciya na tunani suna kashe tsarin ka. Cikakken magani: menene tsarin tunani na juyawa?
Matsalar Tattara Samfura
Yanzu ɓangaren da jerin masu yaduwa suka yi watsi da shi. Sanin wannan jerin yana canza kusan komai — wannan shine binciken da ke damun sanin son zuciya. Samfurin da zaka iya maimaita shine trivia; tsarin da Munger ya bayyana ba jerin karatu bane amma aiki: samfuran da aka yi amfani da su, daga lokaci zuwa lokaci, don yanke shawara a rayuwa, har sai lens ɗin ya zama hanyar duba ta tsohuwa. Masu sukar nau'in samfurin tunani sun yi wannan bayani tsawon shekaru — masu tarawa suna tara kalmomi yayin da shawarar su ke tafiya a kan autopilot, daidai kamar yadda aka saba.
Kimiyyar tunani tana ba da harsashi mai kaifi ga wannan suka. Binciken albarkatun-rational (Lieder & Griffiths, 2020) yana kwaikwayon tunanin dan Adam a matsayin amfani mafi kyau na lissafi mai iyaka — wanda ke nufin cewa samfurin tunani yana da heuristic, kuma darajar heuristic tana dogara ne akan dacewa: kyakkyawan hangen nesa akan kyakkyawan hukunci, a farashi da hukuncin ya dace da shi. Gudanar da rarrabewar ka'idoji na farko akan abincin rana yana da rashin hankali kamar gudanar da misali akan saye. Kwarewar ba ta kasance a mallakar samfuran ba; yana da daidaita su — kuma daidaito ana horar da shi ta hanyar aikace-aikace, ba ta hanyar karatu ba. Har ma na'urorin suna yarda da hanyar: aikin 2024 akan tayar da LLMs tare da tsararren samfurin tunani (arXiv:2402.18252) yana gano cewa bayar da samfurin tsari ga mai tunani yana fi kyau fiye da barin shi ya yi tunani cikin 'yanci.
Wani samfurin da zaka iya karantawa shine trivia.
Wani samfurin da ka yi amfani da shi wajen yanke shawarar Talata shine fa'ida.
Matsalar aikin lattice, an taƙaita
Hanyar: Wata Shawara, Tagwaye Uku
Aikace-aikacen dabi'a yana dacewa cikin mintuna goma sha biyar. Dauki wani muhimmin hukunci na rayuwa kuma ka duba shi da lens guda uku kawai:
1. Juya shi
Rubuta hanyoyi guda uku na ainihi waɗanda wannan yanke shawara ke tabbatar da faduwa — a zaman kansa ko kai ƙungiya. (Fadawa a matsayin wannan ya riga ya fadi maimakon wannan na iya fadi shine abin da ya kawo ~30%: ƙarin masu neman sun bayyana, kuma matakin rubutu na zaman kansa yana ci gaba da riƙe daga wancan wuri.)
2. Na biyu-umurni shi
Don zaɓin da kake so, tambaya sannan me? sau biyu. Rubuta amsoshin a matsayin ikirari, ba a matsayin yanayi ba — kowanne ya kamata a duba daga baya.
3. Farashin madadin
Suna mafi kyawun abu da ba za ka iya yi ba idan ka yi wannan — farashin dama, wanda aka bayyana a fili. Idan babu wanda zai iya suna shi, shawarar ba a kwatanta ta da komai ba.
Tambayar tantancewa
Suna yanke shawara ta ƙarshe inda wani samfurin tunani ya canza sakamakon ƙungiyarku a fili. Idan babu wani abu da ya zo a zuciyarka, kana da ƙamus — ba wani tsarin gado ba.
Inda Argumentree Ya Dace
Tazarar tsakanin sanin samfura da amfani da su matsala ce ta tsari, kuma itace itace mai tsari ta hujja tana rufe ta ta hanyar sanya motsin samfuran su zama motsin da aka saba na tattaunawar. Ka'idojin farko: tushe na shawarwarin suna zama nodes masu bayyana waɗanda dole ne su ɗauki hujja kuma za a iya kaiwa ga su. Juyawa: ɓangaren da ke adawa yana zama gida mai inganci don shari'ar gazawa. Tunanin mataki na biyu: sakamakon da aka hasashe suna shiga a matsayin hujjoji na yara — ikirarin tare da goyon baya, za a duba daga baya. Kwatancen: filayen hujja suna sanya menene ke goyon bayan wannan? tambaya ce ta yau da kullum maimakon zargi. Tunanin yiwuwar: kimantawa suna ba wa ƙungiyar damar bayyana yawan nauyin da hujja ke da shi, maimakon yin kama da hujjoji suna da binary.
Wannan shine tsarin ginin a matsayin ababen more rayuwa: kyamarorin da aka yi amfani da su akan kowanne muhimmin hukunci, ta hanyar tsarin, ko wani yana tuna jerin sunayen a ranar.
Aikin Lattice, Ba Jerin ba
Shawarwarin Munger na 1994 ba ta taba zama na gaske ba don tattara samfura. Abinda ya ce shi ne: kada ka bari kwarewa ta taru ba tare da tsari ba. Ido bakwai da ke sama — an kimanta su da gaskiya, guda uku daga cikinsu suna da cikakkun shafukan aboki — suna isa don ginin shekaru goma na yanke shawara. Samfurin na takwas, wanda wannan nau'in ba ya lissafa, shine meta-samfur: daidaita ido da shawara, a farashi da shawarar ta dace da shi.
Don haka ka tsallake jerin labarai na gaba ka gudanar da aikin minti goma sha biyar akan wani abu na gaske a wannan makon. Gaskiyar da kake da ita tuni tana jiran tsarin da za ta rataya a kai.
Wani samfurin da zaka iya karantawa shine trivia. Wani samfurin da kake amfani da shi shine gefen.
Saita Lens a matsayin na tsoho
Hanyoyin da za a iya kai wa hari, sakamakon a cikin rajista, shari'ar gazawa tare da kujera mai tsayawa — samfuran tunani, da aka gina cikin tsarin.
Hanyoyin Koyo & Karin Karatu
- Munger, C. T. (1994). Darasi kan Ilimin Kasa na Farko, Yadda Ya Shafi Gudanar da Zuba Jari da Kasuwanci. Makarantar Kasuwanci ta USCMaganar latticework — tushen zancen da aka jawo daga cikin rubutu.
- Craik, K. J. W. (1943). Halin Bayani. Cambridge University PressAsalin kalmar: tunani a matsayin ƙaramin samfurin gaskiyar waje.
- Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1983). Samfuran Tunani. Harvard University PressTsarin kimiyyar tunani — tunani a matsayin gina samfur, ba lissafi ba.
- Marks, H. (2011). Abu mafi muhimmanci. Columbia University PressTunani na mataki na biyu, gami da layin mataki na farko da aka ambata a cikin shigar mataki na biyu.
- Merton, R. K. (1936). Illolin da ba a zata ba na Ayyukan Zamani na Manufa. Bita ta Amurka kan Ilimin Al'umma, 1(6), 894–904Asalin ilimin tunani na mataki na biyu.
- Musk, E. (2012). Tattaunawa da Kevin Rose (Foundation, Ep. 20)Tsarin ka'idar zamani na farko da misalin kayan batir.
- Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Ka'idar Duba: Bincike kan Yanke Shawara a ƙarƙashin Hadari. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291An auna nauyin yiwuwar da aka yi amfani da shi a bayan shigar tunanin yiwuwar.
- Klein, G. (2007). Aikin Wani Shirin Premortem. Harvard Business Review; Mitchell, D. J., Russo, J. E. & Pennington, N. (1989). Komawa ga makomar. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2(1), 25–38Fasahar premortem, da gwajin 1989 da ke bayan ~30%: wannan lambar shine hauhawar <em>lambar</em> dalilai da aka samar a ƙarƙashin tsarin tabbaci. Takardar ta ruwaito cewa hangen nesa na lokaci ya nuna ƙaramin tasiri kuma ba ta taɓa tantance ko dalilan sun dace ba.
- Lieder, F. & Griffiths, T. L. (2020). Binciken albarkatun hankali. Kimiyyar Halayen Jiki da Kwayoyin Hali, 43, e1Tsarin da ke bayan hujjar akasin: samfuran suna da hanyoyin tunani wanda darajarsu ke dogara da dacewa da farashi.
- Game da Janarist Prompting don Manyan Samfuran Harshe ta hanyar Samfuran Tunani (2024). arXiv:2402.18252Kafaffen sabuwar shekara ta 2024: tsarin tunani na hankali yana inganta tunanin na'ura ma.
Tambayoyi da ake yawan yi
Menene samfuran tunani a cikin yanke shawara?
Samfurin tunani na wakiltar sauƙaƙe na yadda abubuwa ke aiki, ana amfani da su a matsayin kyamarori don tunani game da yanayi kafin a yi aiki. Wannan ra'ayi ya samo asali ne daga Kenneth Craik (1943), wanda ya bayyana cewa tunani yana ɗauke da ƙaramin samfurin gaskiya wanda ke ba mu damar gwada zaɓuɓɓuka kafin mu yi aiki; Philip Johnson-Laird (1983) ya sanya shi a matsayin ginshiƙi na kimiyyar tunani, kuma jawabin Charlie Munger na latticework (1994) ya juya tarin samfurori na gangan zuwa falsafar yanke shawara.
Menene tsarin tunani na Charlie Munger?
A cikin jawabin sa na USC na 1994, Munger ya yi ikirarin cewa gaskiya ba za a iya amfani da su ba sai sun kasance a kan tsarin ka'idoji: dole ne ka sami samfura a cikin kwakwalwarka — kusan tamanin ko casa'in, daga manyan fannonin ilimi — kuma ka tsara kwarewarka a kansu. Kalmar da ke aiki ita ce tsarin ka'idoji, ba jerin ba: samfuran suna biyan kuɗi ne kawai lokacin da kwarewa ta kasance a kan su, shawara bayan shawara.
Wane tsarin tunani ne mafi mahimmanci don yanke shawara?
Guda bakwai tare da ƙarfi mafi ƙarfi: tunanin ka'idoji na farko (raba zuwa tushe), farashin dama (kowanne eh yana zama a'a), tunanin mataki na biyu (sannan me?), haɗawa (zaɓuɓɓuka masu maimaitawa suna taruwa), ƙarfafawa (tambayi wanda zai amfana), tunanin yiwuwar (yanke shawara bisa ga yiwuwar), da juyawa ( bayyana faduwa da guje masa). Bisa ga shaidar, tunanin yiwuwar yana da zurfin bincike mafi yawa. Premortem na juyawa yana ɗauke da lamba ɗaya da mutane ke ambato — amma wannan ~30% shine 30% ƙarin dalilai da aka samar, ba 30% ƙarin da suka dace ba.
Shin koyon samfuran tunani yana inganta yanke shawara?
Sanin jerin ba ya — wannan shine sakamakon da aka samo daga horon sanin son zuciya. Abin da ke taimakawa shine aikace-aikace: premortem (juyawa da aka yi amfani da shi) yana bayyana ƙarin hanyoyin faduwa da aka fi so kuma yana sanya rashin jituwa zama aikin da aka sanya maimakon aikin jarumta, kuma nazarin albarkatun-rational yana bayyana babban ka'idar — samfuran suna heuristics waɗanda ƙimar su ta dogara da daidaita kyakkyawan lens zuwa kyakkyawan yanke shawara a cikin farashi mai inganci. Ƙwarewar da za a horar shine daidaitawa, kuma ana horar da shi ta hanyar amfani da samfuran a kan yanke shawara na gaske, da kyau tare da tsarin da ke ƙarfafa su.
Menene bambanci tsakanin samfurin tunani da tsarin yanke shawara?
Tsarin yana bayar da hanyoyi - SWOT, RAPID, ko matrix na yanke shawara yana gaya maka matakan da za ka aiwatar. Samfurin tunani yana zama wani hangen nesa da kake dauka cikin kowanne yanayi - juyawa ko farashin dama yana canza abin da kake lura da shi, ba abin da kake bi ba. Kungiyoyi suna bukatar duka: tsarin don aiwatar da tsari mai maimaituwa, samfurori don hukunci a cikin tsarin.
Ta yaya kuke aiwatar da samfuran tunani a matsayin ƙungiya?
Gudanar da na'urar hakowa mai lenzoci uku akan shawara guda daya mai rai: juya ta (hanyoyi uku na gazawa, an rubuta su a matsayin masu zaman kansu), yi mata na biyu (sannan me?, sau biyu, amsoshi an rubuta su a matsayin hujjoji masu duba), da kuma tantance farashin madadin (sanya sunan mafi kyawun abin da wannan zaɓin ke hana). Minti goma sha biyar, kuma ba kamar tunawa da jerin ba, kowanne minti yana zama maimaitawa na aikace-aikace — abin da ainihin ke gina tsarin.
Gina tsarin zane a cikin yanke hukuncinku
Itace hujja suna gudanar da samfuran ta tsohuwa: tushe masu kai hari, sakamako an rubuta, lokuta na gazawa suna maraba, shaidar da ake bukata.
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Wane samfurin tunani ne aka yi masa yabo fiye da kima?
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