Menene hikimar jama'a? Hikimar jama'a shine al'amari inda hukuncin tarayya na wata kungiya ke wuce hukuncin kwararru guda, muddin kungiyar tana da bambancin ra'ayi, 'yancin hukunci, rarrabewar ilimi, da tsarin tarawa.
Hikimar jama'a ta farko an nuna ta ta hanyar gwaji daga Francis Galton, wanda ya nazarci zabin 787 na nauyin ox a baje kolin dabbobi da tsuntsaye na West of England a Plymouth a shekarar 1906. Matsakaicin zabi na 1,207 lb ya kasance cikin kusan 1% na ainihin 1,198 lb — fiye da kwararrun dabbobi — kuma Galton ya wallafa sakamakon a matsayin 'Vox Populi' a Nature (1907). Asalin lissafi yana da tsofaffi: Ka'idar Kwamitin Condorcet (1785) tana tabbatar da cewa idan kowanne mamba na wata kungiya yana da dan karamin fiye da bazuwar a kan tambayar eh/aa kuma membobin suna hukunta a 'yanci, yiwuwar cewa mafi yawan mutane suna daidai yana kusantar tabbaci yayin da kungiyar ke girma. Littafin James Surowiecki na Hikimar Jama'a (2004) ya tsara sharuɗɗan hudu — bambancin ra'ayi, 'yancin kai, rarrabewa, da tarawa — kuma ya nuna cewa cire kowanne daga cikin su yana haifar da tarawa, kumfa, da tunani na kungiya maimakon hikima. A cikin tsarin yanke shawara (Halarta, Tsara, Samar, Bincika, Tarawa, Tattaunawa, Raba, Zabi, Aiwuwa, Kula), hikimar jama'a shine kimiyyar matakin Tarawa: yaya yawan hukuncin kashin kai ke zama hukuncin tarayya kafin tattaunawa ta hadu kan zabi. Hanyoyi daban-daban suna tarawa abubuwa daban-daban — tsarin kada kuri'a suna tarawa ra'ayoyi, kasuwannin hasashe suna tarawa imani masu yiwuwa, da tattaunawar tsari tana tarawa dalilai. Aikace-aikacen zamani sun haɗa da kasuwannin hasashe kamar Kasuwannin Lantarki na Iowa, koyon inji na haɗin gwiwa, da dandamalin yanke shawara na haɗin gwiwa. Argumentree yana amfani da waɗannan ka'idodin tare da gabatar da hujjoji masu zaman kansu da ba su da lokaci wanda ke kare 'yancin kai, kimantawa mai yawa wanda ke tarawa ra'ayoyi masu bambanci cikin maki na yarda, da cikakken hanyar bincike wanda ke adana dalilin da ke bayan tarawa.
Menene Hikimar Jama'a?
Hikimar jama'a shine al'amari inda hukuncin tarayya na wata kungiya ke wuce hukuncin kwararru guda — a ƙarƙashin sharuɗɗan hudu na musamman. An tabbatar da shi tare da zabin 787 a wani baje kolin ƙasar a shekarar 1906, an tsara shi a shekarar 1785, kuma shine dalilin da ya sa tarawa mai tsari ke wuce murya mafi ƙarfi a cikin dakin.
An sabunta karshe: 2026-07-18
TL;DR
A ƙarƙashin sharuɗɗan da suka dace — bambanci, 'yancin kai, rarrabewa, da tarawa — kungiyoyi suna wucewa mafi wayayyun membobinsu. Francis Galton ya nuna shi a shekarar 1906 (zabin 787 na masu ziyara sun kiyasta nauyin ox cikin 1%); Condorcet ya tabbatar da lissafin a shekarar 1785; James Surowiecki ya tsara sharuɗɗan hudu a shekarar 2004. Cire kowanne daga cikin sharuɗɗan yana sa jama'a su yi rauni, ba su zama masu wayo ba — wanda shine abin da ke faruwa a cikin kumfa, dakin echo, da tunani na kungiya. Argumentree yana kare 'yancin kai ta hanyar gabatar da hujjoji masu tsari da ba su da lokaci da kuma tarawa ra'ayoyi masu bambanci ta hanyar kimantawa mai yawa cikin maki na yarda.
Tarihin Gajere na Hikimar Jama'a
Kimiyyar hukuncin tarayya ta shafe shekaru 240 — daga ka'idar yiwuwar Enlightenment zuwa manyan samfuran harshe. Tsarin da ke maimaitawa: jama'a suna da hikima ne kawai lokacin da tsarin ya kare hukuncin 'yanci.
Marquis de Condorcet ya tabbatar da cewa idan kowanne mai kada kuri'a yana da dan karamin fiye da jujjuyawar kudi akan tambaya biyu, yiwuwar cewa mafi yawan mutane suna da gaskiya yana karuwa zuwa tabbaci yayin da rukuni ke girma — idan membobin suna yanke hukunci a cikin 'yanci. Idan kowanne mai kada kuri'a yana da dan karamin fiye da yiwuwar, wannan lissafi yana tura mafi yawan mutane zuwa kuskure tabbatacce.
Francis Galton ya nazarci gasar kimanta nauyin a Taron Kayan Abinci da Tsuntsaye na Yammacin Ingila a Plymouth: tikitin sixpenny 787 masu inganci suna kimanta nauyin shanu. Kimanta mafi tsaka-tsaki — 1,207 lb — ya kasance cikin kusan 1% na ainihin 1,198 lb, yana wuce kwararrun shanu. An buga a Nature, 7 Maris 1907.
Friedrich Hayek's "Amfani da Ilimi a cikin Al'umma" yana jaddada cewa babu wani mai tsara tsari na tsakiya da zai iya tattara ilimin da aka rarraba, na gida wanda farashin kasuwa ke tarawa ta atomatik — tushen tunani don kasuwannin hasashen.
Kamfanin RAND ya kirkiro fasahar Delphi: ra'ayoyin kwararru an tattara su a cikin sirri da zagaye, suna kare yanke hukunci na 'yanci daga matsin lamba da na zamantakewa.
Jami'ar Iowa ta kaddamar da kasuwar bincike na kudi na gaske don hasashen zabe. A cikin 1988–2004, farashinta ya kasance kusa da sakamakon fiye da 964 na ƙasa 74% na lokacin (Berg, Nelson & Rietz 2008).
James Surowiecki ya tsara sharuɗɗan hudu don hikimar taron — bambanci, 'yanci, rarrabawa, tarawa — kuma ya rubuta yadda cire kowanne daga cikin su ke haifar da taruka, kumfa, da tunani na rukuni.
Woolley da abokan aikinsa sun buga shaidar a cikin Science don wani "c factor" na aikin rukuni — wanda ba a tura shi ta hanyar IQ na mambobi ba amma ta hanyar jin dadin zamantakewa da jujjuyawar daidai. Hikimar rukuni wani abu ne na tsari, ba kawai mutane ba.
Bincike akan LLMs da hikimar taron (Burton et al., Nature Human Behaviour 2024) ya gano cewa AI na iya fadada samun damar ilimin taron — amma yana da hadarin hada ra'ayoyi, yana rage bambanci da 'yanci wanda hikimar taron ke dogara akai.
Kimiyyar: Ox Daya, Zabuka 787, da Ka'ida
A cikin kaka na shekarar 1906, mai lissafi mai shekaru 84 Francis Galton ya halarci wani baje kolin dabbobi a Plymouth inda baƙi suka biya shilling shida don kiyasta nauyin ox. Galton — ba mai juyin juya hali ba ne a halin mutum — ya yi tsammanin aikin zai nuna jahilcin mai kada kuri'a na yau da kullum. Maimakon haka, bayan ya zubar da tikiti 13 masu lahani, ya gano matsakaicin zabin 787 shine 1,207 lb a kan nauyin ainihi na 1,198 lb — cikin kusan 1%, kuma kusa da kwararrun dabbobi. Ya wallafa sakamakon a matsayin "Vox Populi" a Nature (1907); a cikin wasiƙar da ta biyo baya ya amince cewa matsakaicin ya kasance ma fi kusa, a 1,197 lb. Ya zama shaidar farko na hikimar jama'a.
Me yasa wannan ke aiki? Kowanne zabi ana iya daukarsa a matsayin ainihin darajar tare da kuskuren mutum. Lokacin da masu zabe suke da bambanci kuma suna hukunta a 'yanci, kuskuren su suna nuni a cikin hanyoyi daban-daban kuma suna ɓoye cancelling a cikin tarawa — yayin da siginar da aka raba ke taruwa. Jama'a ba su fi kowa a ciki ba; tarawa ta fi kowa a ciki.
Lissafin yana da tsofaffi fiye da Galton da shekaru 121. Ka'idar Kwamitin Condorcet (1785) tana tabbatar da cewa a kan tambayar binary, idan kowanne mamba yana daidai da yiwuwar da ta fi karami daga rabi kuma membobin suna hukunta 'yanci, yiwuwar cewa mafi yawan mutane suna daidai yana kusantar tabbaci yayin da kungiyar ke girma. Ka'idar tana aiki a duk hanyoyi: idan membobin suna da dan karamin mummuna fiye da bazuwar — ba daidai ba, ko kwafa kuskuren juna — mafi yawan mutane suna zama kusan tabbatacce ba daidai ba. Ayyukan daga baya sun faɗaɗa ka'idar zuwa rashin daidaito (Grofman, Owen & Feld 1983) kuma sun nuna cewa jujjuyawar da aka haɗa suna raunana ta sosai (Ladha 1992). 'Yancin kai ba kyauta ba ne; shine tushe mai ɗaukar nauyi.
Sharuɗɗan Hudu na Surowiecki don Jama'a Masu Hikima
James Surowiecki's Hikimar Jama'a (2004) ya gano dalilin da ya sa wasu jama'a ke da basira yayin da wasu ke da mummunan sakamako. Dukkan sharuɗɗan hudu dole ne su kasance:
Bambancin ra'ayi
Kowane mutum yana kawo wasu bayanai na sirri ko wani fassarar daban — ko ma na ban mamaki. Rukunan da ba su da bambanci suna yin kuskure iri ɗaya a cikin hanya ɗaya, kuma kuskuren da suka danganta ba su soke juna.
Yancin kai
Hukuncin mutane ba su kasance a ƙarƙashin jagorancin mutanen da ke kewaye da su ba. Lokacin da mutane suka fara kwafa halayen da aka gani maimakon amfani da bayanansu, taron yana zama taruka — duba gurguzu na bayanai.
Rarrabawa
Wani tsarin yana akwai don juya hukuncin sirri zuwa na taro — matsakaici, farashin kasuwa, kuri'a, maki na yarda. Ba tare da tarawa ba, hikimar tana kasancewa a cikin kwakwalwar mutum.
Tattara
Wani tsarin yana akwai don juya hukuncin sirri zuwa na taro — matsakaici, farashin kasuwa, kuri'a, maki na yarda. Ba tare da tarawa ba, hikimar tana kasancewa a cikin kwakwalwar mutum.
Cire kowanne daga cikin sharuɗɗan yana sa jama'a su yi rauni, ba su zama masu wayo ba. Wannan shine hangen nesa na kowane gazawar tarayya: kumfa gazawar 'yanci ne, dakin echo gazawar bambanci ne, da taron da aka mamaye da mai magana na farko gazawar tarawa ne. Hanyoyi daban-daban suna tarawa abubuwa daban-daban — tsarin kada kuri'a suna tarawa ra'ayoyi, kasuwannin hasashe suna tarawa imani, da tattaunawar tsari tana tarawa dalilai — don haka zaɓin tsarin tarawa yana zama hukuncin zane.
Lokacin da Jama'a Suka Fadi
Hikimar jama'a ba ta atomatik ba — tana da rauni, kuma tana fadi a hanyoyi da za a iya hango lokacin da sharuɗɗanta suka karye:
Gurguzu na bayanai
Lokacin da mutane suka yanke hukunci a jere kuma suna iya ganin zaɓuɓɓukan da suka gabata, yana zama mai ma'ana ga kowane mutum ya watsar da bayanan sirri da kwaikwayo — kuma kuskuren suna taruwa. Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer da Welch sun tsara wannan a cikin 1992. Duba gurguzu na bayanai.
Tunani na rukuni
Irving Janis (1972) ya nuna yadda rukunan da suka yi hadin kai ke hana sabani a cikin neman hadin kai — shahararren misalinsa shine harin Bay of Pigs. Tunani na rukuni wani kuskure na matsin lamba na 'yanci, wanda ya bambanta da kwaikwayo na gurguzu amma yana da lahani iri ɗaya.
Kuskuren da suka danganta
Lokacin da kowa ya dogara da hanyoyi guda, kuskuren suna daina soke juna kuma suna fara karuwa. Binciken da aka yi kwanan nan (2025) ya nuna cewa ingancin taro na iya raguwa yayin da rukuni ke girma lokacin da mambobi ke raba bayanai masu dangantaka sosai — dalilin lissafi da ke sa gurguzu su zama masu hankali.
Daidaita akan murya ta farko
A cikin tattaunawa ta jere, murya ta farko ko mafi girma tana da tasiri sosai akan sakamakon. 'Yanci yana mutuwa lokacin da hukunci ya zama na jama'a kafin kowa ya ba da ra'ayinsa.
Maganin shine na tsari, ba na motsin rai ba: tattara hukuncin 'yanci kafin kungiyar ta ga ra'ayoyin juna, kiyaye hanyoyin bayanai masu bambanci, da kuma tarawa a fili maimakon barin yawan ko matsayin ya yanke hukunci. Wannan shine ainihin abin da hanyar Delphi ta fara a cikin shekarun 1950 — da abin da dandamalin yanke shawara na tsari ke sarrafa yau.
Inda Hikimar Jama'a Ke Amfani Yau
Hanyar tarawa iri ɗaya tana bayyana a cikin tsarin da suka bambanta:
Kasuwannin hasashen
Kasuwanni suna tarawa ra'ayoyi da aka rarraba cikin farashi. Kasuwannin Lantarki na Iowa sun kasance kusa da sakamakon zabe fiye da 964 na ƙasa 74% na lokacin a cikin 1988–2004 (Berg, Nelson & Rietz 2008). Duba kasuwannin hasashen.
Koyon inji na hadin gwiwa
Daji na bazuwar da sauran hanyoyin hadin gwiwa suna zama Ka'idar Juri na Condorcet a cikin silicon: masu koyo da yawa masu rauni, bambanta, da yawa suna kada kuri'a, kuma mafi yawan suna da inganci fiye da kowanne samfur guda.
Hanyar Delphi
Tsarin karɓar ra'ayi na kwararru a cikin zagaye na sirri — an tsara shi a RAND a cikin 1950s musamman don kare 'yanci daga matsin lamba da tasirin zamantakewa.
Dandalin yanke hukunci na hadin gwiwa
Kayan aikin da ke tattara hujjoji da kimantawa daga kowane mai ruwa hannu kafin hadewa suna amfani da sharuɗɗan hikimar taron don yanke hukunci na ƙungiya — suna tarawa dalilai, ba kawai kuri'u ba.
Yadda Argumentree Ke Kera Hikimar Jama'a
Tsarin Argumentree yana daidai da sharuɗɗan hudu:
Yancin kai ta hanyar tsari
Masu halarta suna bayar da hujjoji a cikin lokaci mai zaman kansu da 'yanci — kafin rukuni ya hadu — kuma suna iya bayar da su a cikin sirri. Babu wanda aka daidaita da murya ta farko ko mafi girma.
Bambancin da aka kama a matsayin hujjoji
Kowane mai ruwa hannu yana ƙara iliminsa na gida a matsayin hujjoji na amincewa da akasin ra'ayi a cikin itacen da aka raba, don haka ra'ayoyi masu rarrabawa suna shiga cikin rajista maimakon zama ba a faɗi ba.
Tattara da za a iya duba
Kimantawa masu yawa (amfani, bayyana, inganci, cikakkun bayanai) suna tarawa cikin maki na yarda — wani tsari da aka bayyana wanda ke juya yanke hukunci na sirri da yawa zuwa sigina guda, tare da dukkanin hanyar duba a kiyaye.
Dalilai, ba kawai lambobi ba
Ba kamar farashin kasuwa ko tarin kuri'a ba, tarin yana riƙe da dalilansa: itacen hujja yana rubuta dalilin da ya sa hukuncin taro ya fito kamar yadda ya yi.
Tambayoyi Masu Yawan Yi
Menene hikimar taron?
Hikimar taron shine al'amarin da hukuncin taro na rukuni ke ci gaba da wucewa kwararrun mutum, idan sharuɗɗan hudu sun cika: bambancin ra'ayi, 'yancin hukunci, rarrabawa na ilimi, da tsarin tarawa. An yadu kalmar bayan littafin James Surowiecki na 2004, amma shaidar empirically ta dawo ga Francis Galton a cikin 1906 da lissafin zuwa Condorcet a cikin 1785.
Waye ya gano hikimar taron?
Francis Galton ya nuna shi a cikin 1906, lokacin da matsakaicin hasashen 787 na masu ziyara na gasar nauyin shanu (1,207 lb) ya kasance cikin kusan 1% na ainihin 1,198 lb — an buga a matsayin 'Vox Populi' a Nature a cikin 1907. Marquis de Condorcet ya tabbatar da tushen lissafi, ka'idar juri, a cikin 1785. James Surowiecki ya shahara da ra'ayin kuma ya sanya sunan sharuɗɗan hudu a cikin 2004.
Menene sharuɗɗan hudu na Surowiecki don hikimar taron?
Bambancin ra'ayi (kowane mutum yana kawo bayanan sirri ko wani fassarar daban), 'yanci (hukunci ba su kasance a ƙarƙashin jagorancin ra'ayoyin da aka gani ba), rarrabawa (mutane suna dogara da ilimin gida na musamman), da tarawa (wani tsari yana juya hukuncin sirri zuwa yanke hukunci na taro). Dukkan hudu dole ne su kasance — cire kowanne yana sa taron ya zama mara inganci, ba tare da ƙara ba.
Yaushe hikimar taron ke fadi?
Yana fadi lokacin da sharuɗɗansa suka karye: gurguzu na bayanai da taruka suna lalata 'yanci, gurguzu na sauti da hanyoyin da aka raba suna lalata bambanci (kuskuren suna zama masu dangantaka da karuwa maimakon soke), da taron da ba a tsara ba yana rasa ingantaccen tarawa, yana barin matsayin da yawa su yanke hukunci. Tunani na rukuni — matsin lamba zuwa hadin kai — yana kai hari ga 'yanci daga wata hanya daban fiye da gurguzu amma tare da sakamakon iri ɗaya.
Menene bambanci tsakanin hikimar taron da tunani na rukuni?
Suna zama akasin juna da aka samar da wani canji: 'yanci. Hikimar taron tana bayyana lokacin da aka tara hukuncin 'yanci; tunani na rukuni yana bayyana lokacin da matsin lamba na zamantakewa ya sa mambobi su hadu akan yarda da rukunin kafin a yi hukunci na 'yanci. Rukuni da ke raba, tattaunawa, da jujjuyawa kafin kowa ya ba da hukuncin sirri yana gudanar da tsarin tunani na rukuni ko da yake yana jin kamar hadin gwiwa.
Menene Ka'idar Juri na Condorcet a cikin kalmomi masu sauƙi?
Idan kowanne mutum a cikin rukuni yana da dan karamin yiwuwar fiye da jujjuyawar kudi don zama da gaskiya akan tambaya mai amsa eh/aa, kuma kowa yana yanke hukunci a cikin 'yanci, to mafi girman rukuni, mafi yiwuwar mafi yawan mutane suna da gaskiya — suna kusantar tabbaci. Matsalar: idan mutane suna da dan karamin fiye da yiwuwar, ko suna kwaikwayo juna, wannan lissafi yana sa mafi yawan mutane su zama kuskure da tabbaci.
Menene misalan gaske na hikimar taron?
Gasarm nauyin shanu na Galton na 1906 (787 hasashe, matsakaici cikin 1%); kasuwannin hasashen kamar Kasuwannin Lantarki na Iowa, wanda ya wuce 964 na ƙasa 74% na lokacin a cikin 1988–2004; koyon inji na hadin gwiwa, inda masu samfurin rauni da yawa suka kada kuri'a fiye da kowanne mai ƙarfi; da zagaye na kwararru na hanyar Delphi, wanda aka yi amfani da shi tun daga 1950s don hasashen.
Ta yaya kayan aikin yanke hukunci na hadin gwiwa ke amfani da hikimar taron?
Suna tsara sharuɗɗan hudu a cikin software: bayar da gudummawa mai zaman kansu, mai zaman jere (zaɓin sirri) yana kare 'yanci; karɓar hujjoji a cikin tsari yana jawo ilimin rarrabawa, mai bambanci; da kimantawa a fili tare da maki na yarda yana ba da tsarin tarawa. Argumentree kuma yana kiyaye hanyar dalili, don haka hukuncin taro yana kasancewa mai bayyana bayan haka.
Tushen Bayani & Karatu na Gaba
Condorcet, M. de (1785). Essai sur l'application de l'analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix.
Ka'idar juri — tushen lissafi na hukuncin taro.
Galton, F. (1907). Vox Populi. Nature, 75, 450–451.
Shaidar farko ta empirically: 787 hasashe, matsakaici 1,207 lb vs ainihin 1,198 lb.
View source →Hayek, F. A. (1945). The Use of Knowledge in Society. American Economic Review, 35(4), 519–530.
Ilmin da aka rarraba da farashi a matsayin tarawa — shari'ar rarrabawa.
Grofman, B., Owen, G., & Feld, S. L. (1983). Thirteen theorems in search of the truth. Theory and Decision, 15, 261–278.
Karin bayani na Ka'idar Juri na Condorcet zuwa rashin daidaito.
Ladha, K. K. (1992). The Condorcet Jury Theorem, Free Speech, and Correlated Votes. American Journal of Political Science, 36(3).
Dalilin da ya sa hukuncin da suka danganta ke raunana ka'idar.
Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D., & Welch, I. (1992). A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades. Journal of Political Economy, 100(5), 992–1026.
Tsarin hukuma na yadda ganin wasu ke lalata 'yanci.
Surowiecki, J. (2004). The Wisdom of Crowds. Doubleday.
Sharuɗɗan hudu: bambanci, 'yanci, rarrabawa, tarawa.
Berg, J., Nelson, F., & Rietz, T. (2008). Prediction market accuracy in the long run. International Journal of Forecasting, 24(2), 285–300.
IEM vs 964 polls, 1988–2004: kasuwar ta kasance kusa 74% na lokacin.
Woolley, A. W., Chabris, C. F., Pentland, A., Hashmi, N., & Malone, T. W. (2010). Evidence for a Collective Intelligence Factor in the Performance of Human Groups. Science, 330(6004), 686–688.
Hikimar rukuni a matsayin wani abu mai auna wanda ke tuka ta hanyar tsari, ba IQ na matsakaici ba.
View source →Burton, J. W., et al. (2024). How large language models can reshape collective intelligence. Nature Human Behaviour, 8, 1643–1655.
Dama da hadarin hada ra'ayoyi da LLMs ke haifarwa ga hikimar taron.
View source →Ra'ayoyi Masu Alaka
Juya ƙungiyarku zuwa jama'a masu hikima
Argumentree yana tsara sharuɗɗan hudu a cikin kowanne yanke shawara: bayar da gudummawa mai zaman kansa, hujjoji masu bambanci, tarawa a fili, da hanyar dalili da aka adana. Daina yanke shawara ta hanyar murya mafi ƙarfi.
Fara Gwaji Kyauta