Falsafar Shari'ar Warren Buffett: The 20-Slot Punch Card Behind $900 Billion
Warren Buffett ya gina masarauta ta dala biliyan 900 ta hanyar zaɓin shawara mai tsanani. Sanarwar sa: "Na yi wasu shawarawari mara kyau goma sha biyu a shekaru 58"—kimanin shawara muhimmiya daya kowace shekara biyar. Falsafarsa: "Rashin aiki mai kare da nono ya kasance tushe na salon mu na saka hannun jari" (wasika ta masu hannun jari na 1990). Juriya ta fito ne daga "20-slot punch card" mental model: idan kana da shawarawari 20 kawai don rayuwarka, za ka yi kowacce daya ta yi daraja. Buffett yana kashe 80% na yawan sa'o'in sa na karatu (shafuka 500+ yau da kullum) don shirya wa waɗannan shawarawari kaɗan. Misalin Ted Williams: jira har zuwa lokacin da za a yi wa kai haja—ba kamar baseball, babu kira a saka hannun jari. Charlie Munger ya ce haka "sit on your ass investing": sami kamfanoni masu daraja, saya su, sannan ka yi kasa. Hasashen da ba a saba gani ba: "shawarawari na asili" na Buffett ba shakka ba—suna fito ne daga shekaru da yawa na shirin shirye-shirye ta hanyar karatu. Wasikun sa na shekara-shekara suna rubuta hujjojin kowane shawara, wanda ke samar da hujja ta asali don shirya gaba.
Warren Buffett ya gina masarautar dala biliyan 900 da "kusan darusan gaskiya goma sha biyu a lokacin shekaru 58." Sirrin sa ba shi ne zaɓin hisabi mai ban mamaki—shi ne zaɓin ƙarfi da ƙarfin shirye-shirye. Yana karatun shafuka 500 a kowace rana, yana jiran "hawa a cikin yankin da ya fi so," sannan yana rubuta hujjosarsa a wasiku zuwa ga masu hannun jari waɗanda zasu zama shirye-shiryen yau.
- "Rashin aiki mai kare da nono" —Aikin ba shi ne shiri, ba shi ne laifi
- 20-slot punch card —Idan shawarawari suna da iyaka, za ka yi kowacce daya ta yi daraja
- 80% karatu —Shirye-shirye na samar da shawarawari na asili na amana
- Rubutu → Shirye-shirye → Asali —Gurke-gurke wanda ke karba
Warren Buffett yana tafsiri analogin Ted Williams na shawarawari na saka hannun jari
Falsafar Wadda Ke Da Bezos's Philosophy
A watan Satumba 2018, Jeff Bezos ya zauna don tattaunawa a Economic Club of Washington. Lokacin da aka tambaye shi game da shawarawari, ya nuna Warren Buffett:
"A matsayin babban jami'i, me ka ke yi wa ka aikata? Ka ke yi wa ka aikata don yi shawarawari kaɗan na daraja."
"Warren Buffett ina ce ya yi shawarawari uku na daraja a shekara."
Bezos ya ce falsafar Buffett—zaɓin shawara mai tsanani wanda ke bayyana Berkshire Hathaway. Amma me yake Buffett kai tsaye?
A tattaunawa daban-daban, Buffett ya yi magana akan haka: "Na yi shawarawari mara kyau goma sha biyu a shekaru 58." Haka zai yi kimanin shawara muhimmiya daya kowace shekara biyar—ba uku a shekara. Duk da haka, ka'ida ce ta kasa: zaɓin shawara mai tsanani ya fi aiki mai yawa.
Yaya aka gina wannan falsafa Berkshire Hathaway ya zama kamfani na dala biliyan 900—mai girma fiye da GDP na kasashe da yawa?
Katin Punch na Slots 20
Buffett yana da mental model wanda yake raba da ɗalibai wanda ke bayyana yadda yake yi:
"Za ka yi mafi kyau idan ka sami punch card da 20 punches. Kuma kowace shawara ta kudi ka yi, ka yi amfani da punch. Za ka yi tunani mai tsawo kafin kowace shawara ta saka hannun jari—za ka yi shawarawari na daraja kuma za ka yi shawarawari na yawa."
"Ba za ka bukata shawarawari 20 na daraja don zama mai daraja. Huɗu ko biyar za su iya yi ka haka a lokaci."
Punch card ba shi ne game da rashin wadata ba. Shi ne game da shawarawari na daraja ta hanyar zaɓin shawara. Idan ka san ka na da shawarawari 20 kawai don aikin ka, za ka:
- Yi bincike cikakken kafin yin alkawari
- Jiri ku jira don damar da za ta shafi
- Kata "dama" za ka yi zaben mafi kyau
- Tafi a shekaru, ba a lokaci ba
Buffett Math
$75 biliyan kowace shawara. Haka shi ne darajarta na zaɓin shawara.
"Rashin Aiki Mai Kare da Nono"
A wasikar sa ta masu hannun jari na 1990, Buffett ya ba da suna wa falsafarsa:
"Rashin aiki mai kare da nono ya kasance tushe na salon mu na saka hannun jari. A shekara ta, ba mu saya ko sayar da shafuka sha biyar daga cikin shafukan mu sha biyar."
Masu saka hannun jari da yawa za su damu idan suka yi shekara ba tare da yi aiki ba. Buffett ya ce haka ake yi, ba laifi ba. Abokin sa Charlie Munger ya ce haka:
"Idan ka saya kamfanoni masu daraja, za ka iya zauna a kan kai. Ka ke jin labari, ka ke kauce wa zamba. Idan ya aiki, tsarin haraji ya ba ka 1, 2, ko 3 asali asali kowace shekara."
"Jari ya yawa ba a saye ko sayarwa, amma a jira."
Yadda Wall Street Ke Yi
Sayi da sayar da kowace rana. Amsa labarai. Nuna aiki. Matsanancin matsalar aikin kwata-kwata. "Wall Street ta ke samun kudin ta daga aiki," ina ce Buffett. "Ka ke samun kudinka daga jira."
Yadda Buffett Ke Yi
Karanta kowace rana. Jira da saburi. Yi aiki kadan. Idan ka sami kamfani na daraja a farashin da ya dace, saya shi kuma riƙe shi—har zuwa rayuwanka. "Matsayin mu na riƙe shi har zuwa rayuwanka."
Ted Williams Sweet Spot
Buffett ya yi magana akan Ted Williams, daya daga cikin mawakan baseball mafi daraja. A littafinsa "The Science of Hitting," Williams ya raba yankin strike zone ya 77, kuma ya yi aiki kawai a yankin sa na zaɓi.
Daga wasikar Buffett na 1997:
"Ted ya raba yankin strike zone ya 77, kowacce cell ta yi kama da baseball. Ina yi aiki kawai a yankin sa na zaɓi, ya san cewa, zai ba shi damar yi .400; ina yi aiki a yankin sa na mafi muni, ƙarshen yankin strike zone, zai rage shi zuwa .230. A ma'ana, jira har zuwa "haja a cikin yankin sa na zaɓi" zai yi shi zuwa Hall of Fame; yi aiki ba tare da zaɓi ba zai yi shi zuwa ga ƙungiyar ƙananan"
Sannan dai ya zo Buffett's crucial insight about investing versus baseball:
The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling, 'Swing, you bum!,' ignore them." becomes "Muhimmancin sarauniya a zuba jari shi ne ka zauna can kuma ka kalli pitch bayan pitch ya shiga kuma ka jira har sai ka samu wacce take cikin yanayin da ya dace da kai. Shi kuwa idan mutane suna kuka, 'Swing, you bum!,' ka yi wa kasa.
"Kamar baseball, babu called strikes a investing."
Mahimmancin Fahimta
A wasa baseball, kuna iya swing eventually—bayan strikes uku, kuna fita. A investing da shawarar kasuwanci, kuna iya jira har abada. Babu wanda zai tilastawa ka yanke shawara. Hukuncin patience shine zero. Hukuncin swinging a bad pitches shine babban.
"Ina zaune a ofis na na karanta duk rana"
Idan Buffett yake yanke shawara uku a shekara, me yake yi sauran lokacin?
Yana karanta.
"Ina zaune a ofis na na karanta duk rana."
"Ina bukura da yawa lokaci a kowace rana, don zauna da tunani. Wannan ba shine al'ada a kasuwancin Amurka. Na karanta da na tunani. Don haka na yi karatu da tunani, na kuma yanke shawara mara impulsive fiye da mutanen kasuwanci"
Buffett ya kiyasta ya yi 80% na lokacin aikinsa yana karanta—kimanin sa'a 5-6 a rana. Wannan ya hada da:
- Jaridu biyar a kowace safiya
- Dubu dubatar shafuka na rahotannin shekara-shekara na kamfanoni
- Wallafe-wallafen masana'antu da mujallar kasuwanci
- Littattafai kan kasuwanci, tarihin rayuwa, da tarihin rayuwa
Ya ce wa dalibai:
"Karanta shafuka 500 kamar haka a kowace rana. Wannan shi ne yadda ilimi yake aiki. Yana kara yawan, kamar riba. Kowa zai iya yi, amma ina tabbatar da cewa ba da yawa daga cikinka za su yi"
Tushen Shirye-shiryen
Sirrin Takardun Bayani
Wannan shi ne abin da mutane ke manta game da Buffett: ba ya yanke shawara kawai. Ya kuma rubuta su.
Wasiku na shekara-shekara na Buffett ga masu jari suna da shahiri—ba kawai saboda salon su. Suna cikin bayanai na me ya yanke kowace shawara mai mahimmanci. Lokacin da ya saya Coca-Cola a shekarar 1988, bai sanar da siyan kawai. Ya bayyana:
- Abin da ya sa kamfanin zama mai jan hankali
- Abin da ya yi zaben sauran
- Abin da matsayin imaninsa ya kasance
- Abin da zai iya kashe
Wadannan wasiku suna da amfani da yawa:
Ga Masu Jari
Girkawa game da hujja, ba kawai sakamako. Masu jari suna fahimta ilimin, har ma idan sakamako ya yi kasa.
Ga Buffett
Rukunin nasa na tunani. Ya iya komawa ga shawarar da ya yanke a baya, ya kuma koya daga kuskure, kuma ya kauce wa kurautattun kuskure.
Wannan Kafaffen Juyawa
Rubutu ya zama shirin nan gaba. Buffett ya sake karanta nasa tunani na baya. Wasikunsa na masu jari suna horar da nasa tunani na gaba. Loop ya kare: karanta → tunani → yanke shawara → rubutu → karanta rubutun ka → tunani na gaba
Me ya sa "Gut Decisions" Ba su ne abin da kake zaton
Buffett akai kira da "intuitive" ko "gut" shawarar saka jari. Ya saya kamfanoni da dala biliyan daya bayan taron daya kawai. Ya sanar da shawarar da ya yanke na saka jari a GEICO bayan ya karanta rahoton shekara-shekara daya kawai.
Amma wannan shi ne abin da mutane ke manta: tunani na Buffett ba shine tunani mara horo. Shi ne fitowar shekaru 60+ na shirin shirye-shirye.
Lokacin da ya karanta rahoton shekara-shekara na kamfani da "ya san" shine saka jari mai kyau, ilimin ya fito ne daga:
- Dubu dubatar rahotannin shekara-shekara da ya karanta
- Shekaru da dazuzzuka na shawarwari da sakamako
- Tsarin tunani da aka tsara ta hanyar karatu da tunani
- Gano salon da aka gina ta hanyar aikin hakiki
"Ba za ka iya amintar da tunaninka idan ka ba horo tunaninka. Ba ka iya horar da tunaninka ba tare da shirin shirye-shirye"
Buffett Method don Non-Billionaires
Ba ka da sarrafa dala biliyan 900. Amma ka'idodin Buffett suna aiki ga kowace shirka da ke yanke shawara mai mahimmanci:
Kare Shawarar Ka Mai Kyau
Gano shawarar 3-5 a shekara da ke da mahimmanci ga shirka. Kare ikon tunaninka don waɗannan. Kada ka rage shi a tsakanin shawarar da dama.
Gina Shirin Shirye-shirye
Ba za ka iya karanta shafuka 500 a rana. Amma za ka iya gina shirin shirye-shirye da ke tarin ilimi na shirka—shawarar da aka yanke, hujja, sakamako. Bar shirka "karanta" ya kara yawan lokaci.
Rubuta "Me", Ba "Abin"
Wasiku na Buffett na masu jari suna bayyana hujja, ba kawai sakamako. Lokacin da shirka ta yanke shawara mai mahimmanci, rubuta me—abin da aka yi la'akari, hujja, matsayin. Wannan zai zama shirin nan gaba
Jira Da Sweet Spot Na
Babu dama da ta cancanci shawara. Sani me "maɓallin da kuke da shi"—iri na shawarwari inda kuna da kwarin gwiwa—and da kuma iya kula da su wadanda zasu wuce.
Daga Buffett Zuwa Bezos Zuwa Organization Na
Buffett ya nuna cewa, kaɗan, mafi kyau na shawarwari ya fi aiki mai yawa. Amma shi ɗan adam ɗaya ne ke sarrafa babban jarin shi.
Me ya faru lokacin da ka yi ƙoƙari ka shigar da haka zuwa gudanar da kamfani tare da ma'aikata 1.5 million?
Jeff Bezos ya samu amsa. A shekara ta 2004, ya hana amfani da PowerPoint a Amazon kuma ya gabatar da memo na shafi 6—a tsarin da ke tilastawa irin tsarin hukunci Buffett ke samu ta hanyar karatu da rubutu. A shekara ta 2018, Bezos ya yarda a fili da falsafar Buffett a matsayin tasiri ga yadda yake gudanar da hukuncin shi.
Mawallafin Da Aka Yi Wa'adin
Yaya manyan shawarwari Warren Buffett ya yi a masana'anta?
Buffett ya ce: 'Na yi kusan shawarwari 12 masu kyau a shekaru 58.' Wannan shine kusan shawara ɗaya mai daraja a kowace shekara 5. A cikin muhawarar sa na shekara ta 2018, Jeff Bezos ya bayyana haka a matsayin 'Warren Buffett ina cewa yana da kyau idan ya yi shawarwari 3 masu kyau a kowace shekara'—amma bayanan Buffett na riƙe ya nuna cewa yana da ƙanƙanta. Ka'ida ce iri ɗaya: zabi mai tsauri, ba aiki mai yawa ba.
Me ya nufi 20-slot punch card na Warren Buffett?
20-slot punch card na Buffett shine tsarin hukunci. Ya ce wa ɗalibai: 'Za ka fi kyau idan ka sami punch card da 20 punches. Kuma kowace shawara ta kuɗin ka ka yi amfani da punch. Za ka yi tsawon lokaci ka yi shawara—ka yi shawarwari masu kyau kuma ka yi shawarwari masu daraja.' Muhimmin abu: idan shawarwari suna da iyaka, za ka yi kowace daya ta yi daraja.
Me ya nufi 'lethargy bordering on sloth' a masana'anta?
A cikin wasiƙun masu hannun jari na shekara ta 1990, Buffett ya rubuta: 'Lethargy bordering on sloth har yanzu shi ne muhimmin ɓangare na salon mu na masana'anta.' Ya nufi cewa Berkshire ta yanke shawara ta kada ta yi aiki mai yawa. Ba sa yi ciniki yawa, ba sa biyan salon, kuma ba sa yi aiki. Rashin aiki, idan aka haɗa da shiri, suna samar da mafarin daraja fiye da aiki mai yawa.
Yadda analogy na Ted Williams na Warren Buffett ya shafi shawarwari?
Buffett ya yi amfani da analogy na Ted Williams' 'The Science of Hitting.' Williams ya raba yankin strike zone zuwa 77 cells kuma ya yi shawara a cikin 'sweet spot' na shi—wanda ya samu daraja .400. Buffett ya yi amfani da haka zuwa masana'anta: 'The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot.' A zahiri, akwai kowa a masana'anta—kuna iya jira har abada don samun pitch mai kyau.
Yaya lokaci Warren Buffett ya yi karatu?
Buffett ya kiyasta cewa yana yi karatu 80% na lokacin aikinsa—kimanin sa'a 5-6 a kowace rana. Ya karanta jaridu 5, shafuka 100 na rahotannin kamfani, da litattafai. Ya ce wa ɗalibai: 'Karanta shafuka 500 kama haka a kowace rana. Haka ne ilimi ya yi aiki. Ya ƙara kama riba mai yawa.' Shirin haka shine abin da ke sa hukuncin Buffett 'gut decisions' ya zama mai amana.
Me ya nufi 'sit on your ass' investing philosophy na Charlie Munger?
Charlie Munger, abokin Buffett, ya bayyana yadda suke gudanar da hukuncin a matsayin 'sit on your ass investing': 'Idan ka saya kamfanoni kaɗan masu kyau, za ka iya zauna a kan kaɓaɓɓun ka. Ka ke biyan kuɗi ga brokers ɗin. Ka ke jin labaran banza. Idan ya aiki, tsarin haraji ya ba ka 1, 2, ko 3% daraja a kowace shekara mai yawa.' Saburi, ba aiki ba, shine abin da ke ƙirƙirar arziƙi.
Yadda wasiƙun masu hannun jari na Warren Buffett suke shafi shawarwari?
Wasiƙun masu hannun jari na Buffett suna ƙirƙirar takardun shawarwari. Domin kowace shawara mai daraja, ya bayyana ba kawai abin da ya saya—amma WHY—the hukunci, zabi da aka yi la'akari, da daraja. Wasiƙun suna zama memory institution. Ya sake karanta hukuncin sa na baya, wanda ke horar da hankurin sa don shawarwari mai zuwa. Takardun shawarwari suna ƙara shiri, wanda ke sa hukuncin Buffett 'gut decisions' ya zama mai amana.
Argumentree Team
Decision Science
The Argumentree team is pioneering structured decision intelligence for enterprises worldwide. Our mission is to transform how organizations make, document, and learn from decisions.
Yadda Argumentree Ya Taimaka Maka Ka Yi Amfani Da Haka
Buffett ya karanta shafuka 500 a kowace rana kuma ya rubuta kowace shawara a wasiƙun masu hannun jari. Yawancin ƙungiyoyi ba za su iya yin haka ba. Argumentree ya ɗauki hukunci kai tsaye—don haka ƙungiyar ka ta gina irin ƙarfin hukunci
Kowace shawara tare da hukuncin ta—abin da za a iya nema, auditable, ready to inform the next call
Tarin pro/con, trade-offs an rubuta, rashin amincewa a rikodin—20-slot punch card discipline
Shawarwari mai daraja tare da tsarin hukunci—memory institution da ke ƙarfin hukunci
Gina Memory Na Shawarwari Na Ƙungiyar Ka.
Wasiƙun masu hannun jari na Buffett suna ƙirƙirar memory institution. Argumentree ya yi irin haka ga ƙungiyar ka—abin da ke ɗauka "why" behind kowace shawara don haka ya zama shiri don mai zuwa.
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Hanyar Binciken Shawara
Wasikun masu hannun jari na Buffett takardun shaidar yanke shawara ne a cikin manyan ma'auni—ka'idar da ta sa a iya bin diddigin yanke shawara na kungiya da inganta su.